Shove your draft grades where the training camp sun don't shine

If you followed the first round of the NFL draft or absorbed any of the post-mortems following the conclusion of the 2026 rookie roundup, you probably got the impression that the Minnesota Vikings have once again shot themselves in the foot, ass, and dick with their first-round pick of jumbo-sized DT Caleb Banks. Mel Kiper gave the entire Vikings draft a C just because he was so outraged that the Vikings had the unmitigated gall to take a player higher than what he had him ranked. 

Last time I checked, Kiper still had zero experience as a member of an NFL front office. Neither have I, but I'm not getting paid for my draft grades, and neither should anyone else. We simply do not know what any of these players will turn out to be until they get on the field against veteran NFL talent. What follows is my opinion as of this weekend about the quality of the picks versus my expectations. None of these grades is predictive of performance or the future of the Vikings, other than that one most important fact that we must never overlook:

God hates the Vikings.

Round 1, #18: Caleb Banks, DT, Florida—grade: C
This is the right grade to balance the risk (injury) vs. reward (game-wrecking freak) that Banks represents. I think they’ll bring him along very slowly, but if he stays healthy, look for him to make a big difference in December and January. I think the Vikings thought missing out on him if he turns out to be a star was a bigger risk than trading down or hoping he made it into the second round. If he hits, they'll all look like geniuses. 

Round 2, #51: Jake Golday, LB, Cincinnati—B+
A great pick at linebacker, Golday has size and speed, and he can rush the passer, drop into coverage, and stop the run. Golday could be a day one starter. If he fits into the Flores defense, he could turn out to be Andrew Van Ginkel’s successor opposite Dallas Turner. He was one of three picks I had on my own pre-draft big board wish list for the Vikings.

Round 3, #82: Domonique Orange, DL, Iowa State—A-
Big Citrus has one job: stop the run. Watch his tape—you can’t run on him. He’ll also occupy 2-3 linemen on the pass rush, opening the gates for Flores’ blitzers. If he can also get to the QB, this pick is a solid A. Orange was also on my big board and one of the players I most consistently mocked to the Vikings this spring. I’m delighted to have him in purple.

Round 3, #97: Caleb Tiernan, T, Northwestern—B-
Last year exposed how thin the Vikings’ depth on the OL was, and it derailed JJM’s first season and possibly his future with the Vikings. Tiernan is a huge body who can play four positions on the OL, and if he develops as a tackle, could be the future RT as Brian O’Neill ages out of his big contract.

Round 3, #98: Jacobe Thomas, S, Miami—C+
A ball-hawking, hard-hitting safety for Miami’s dominating defense, the two main questions are whether last season was an outlier or future predictor of success, and can he grasp Flores’ complex scheme well enough to get on the field as a rookie. Coaches praised his “football IQ,” which B-Flo craves. He has some stellar pick-six highlights from last season. I get the feeling he’s going to fit in well with the rest of the Vikings’ secondary. 

Round 5, #159: Max Bredeson, FB, Michigan—C+
The replacement for CJ Ham at fullback, Max’s value will depend on how committed KOC truly is to expanding both the running game and heavy/jumbo formations that take advantage of his skills. He should be a great blocker for runs or passes. As an added bonus, he’s a good friend of JJ McCarthy, who popped up on the media interview after the Vikings selected Bredeson much to the surprise of the MN media. 

Round 5, #163: Chuck Demmings, CB, Stephen F. Austin—B+
This may turn out to be one of Minnesota’s top picks in this draft. An FCS cornerback, Demmings wowed evaluators at the combine with 4.4 speed, a 42-inch vertical jump, and 11-foot broad jump. Wow! Tall, long, and quick, he’s just the kind of low-value/high-reward corner that Flores likes to develop, and he could make a big impact in the Vikings secondary as a rookie.

Round 6, #198: Demond Claiborne, RB, Wake Forest—B
This was the running back that the Vikings had planned to draft before the draft began. He has the ability to make defenders miss and the speed (4.37 40-yd dash) to burst through the hole and zip down the field. Again, the question is how much he will see the field in a pass-happy KOC scheme, as well as whether his size (5-9, 188 lbs) will hold up against pro defenders. I think he could be a real difference-maker if he gets the chance. He may also have value as a kick returner. He was the third player on my pre-draft big board.

Round 7 #235: Gavin Gerhardt, C, Cincinnati—C-
He was not on the radar as a center, but Vikings staff did attend Cincinnati’s pro day, and the one thing about Gerhardt’s resume is his experience on the field—more than 3,300 snaps in his college career, which spans four years and three stints as a team captain. I look for him to displace Michael Jurgens as C2 behind Blake Brandel. His size is impressive, so if he can play, he might be part of the OL’s future.

Overall grade: B-
I'm a college professor, and I did the math, so you know this grade is legit!

Other notes: The trade with the Eagles for edge rusher Jonathan Greenard was tough to take, but they had to clear his salary for salary cap reasons, and an extra third round pick next year has real value. It’s nice to see the front office do the difficult thing when it’s both right and unpopular with the fans.

I think they will hire Rob Brzezinski as their full-time general manager in the next couple of weeks. He showed boldness and calculated risk with the Banks pick, and he managed the rest of the team’s draft capital like a professional. What we need in the front office is stability, professionalism, and common sense. Rob has all those qualities, and if all his drafts are at least as good as this year’s, we will be in good hands (at least until God once again notices we have made the playoffs).

Quick Hits for NFL Week 14

HTGanzo - stock.adobe.com

Vikings 31, Commanders 0
The headline here should be "What could have been..." What if our offensive line had been healthy all season long? What if Kevin O'Connell had been willing to a) commit to the run, and b) start QB JJ McCarthy out with training wheels and less content to overthink? Yeah, Washington stinks, but what could the Vikings have been if they had started this way instead of sinking the season before simplifying your strategy? Let's see now how they look against Dallas.

Lions 44, Cowboys 30
Both teams surprised me with this week's Thursday game. The Lions looked like they were just about as cooked as a turkey in their Thanksgiving loss to the Packers, while Dallas looked like they might actually make a playoff run. In the words of Willy Wonka, "Strike that. Reverse it." 

Seahawks 37, Falcons 9
Burning questions: Will Sam Darnold melt under pressure in the playoffs again this year? Will Kirk Cousins find a team desperate enough for a starter to save Atlanta from his terrible contract? Also, why do the Falcons look amazing one week and terrible the next? The inconsistency is alarming. Anyway, the Seahawks look like a tough out in the playoffs if Darnold can keep his head on straight.

Bills 39, Bengals 34
At times in this game, it looked like Cincy was going to blow out the Bills in the snow again like that playoff game a couple years ago. But Josh Allen must be wearing a Superman "S" under his jersey, because he saved Buffalo yet again. Will he run out of heroics before the playoffs? It won't matter unless he figures out how to also play defense...no one else on the Bills can, it seems.

Titans 31, Browns 29
Are the Browns tanking on purpose? Are the Titans so bad that they forgot to tank on purpose? Ahh, no one outside these fan bases really cares. The only difference is that Tennessee could conceivably hire a good coach and get better. After the Browns fire Kevin Stefanski, they'll hire someone guaranteed to keep Cleveland at the bottom of the league for another decade.

Dolphins 34, Jets 10
Miami would have to sweep its next four games against Pittsburgh, Cincy, Tampa Bay, and New England to finish 10-7, which probably won't be enough to make the playoffs, but it might be good enough to save Mike McDonald's job. Nothing will be enough to save Aaron Glenn's job in New Jersey, though, maintaining the Jets' place in football Hell for at least another five years. 

Saints 24, Bucs 20
I doubt the Saints are going to waste a top-five draft pick on another QB next year. Too bad for Tampa that injuries have derailed what was looking like a deep playoff run at the beginning of the season. They still have two head-to-head games against Carolina that will determine the NFC South winner, though, so we have to wait and see whether it's too late for them to bounce back.

Jags 36, Colts 19
The Jags are going to win the AFC South, the Texans will grab a wild card spot, and the Colts will say "What could have been?" with the loss of QB Daniel Jones to an Achilles injury this Sunday. Next season's AFC South is going to be a great division to watch.

Steelers 27, Ravens 22
I'm so old, I remember when this game was must-see TV. This Sunday was "Rusty QB TV." Does anyone really believe Aaron Rodgers is going to win a playoff game?

Broncos 24, Raiders 17
What about the possibility of a Texans-Broncos steel cage defensive death match in the AFC playoffs? Also, Tom Brady should be embarrassed to be associated with a football team that is this bad. This is the group that should draft a QB.

Packers 28, Bears 21
How many times will Jordan Love throw up a rainbow pass while falling backward under two defenders to a wide-open receiver in the end zone? Caleb Williams almost brought the Bears back, but you simply cannot throw short into the end zone against a defense as good as the Packers. The Bears fall from one to seven in the playoff seedings, and they have a gauntlet schedule left just to make it. Stay tuned...

Rams 45, Cardinals 17
Matthew Stafford regained his MVP-caliber play against one of the five worst franchises in the NFL. I'm in the neighborhood of Packers vs. Rams for the NFC Championship after this week.

Texans 20, Chiefs 10
Stop whining about it. You have three championships in five years. Some franchises will never even make it to the big game. Everything ends. Don't cry because it's over; smile because it happened. Also, get used to it; this team will be in rebuilding mode for the next two years. 

Eagles vs. Chargers on MNF
Yes, both these teams are going to the playoffs. No, neither one of them will make it past the Divisional round.

There is no Plan B

Vikings fans know hopelessness, but this is something altogether new.

After an embarrassing 23-6 loss to Green Bay, an uncomfortable truth must be clear to all who've been unfortunate enough to watch the Vikings play this year: JJ McCarthy is not ready to play quarterback in the NFL.

I don't know enough about the nuts and bolts of professional football to speculate about what, if anything, might help McCarthy to show progress, but starting for the Vikings isn't working. If anything, it's making things worse.

He is regressing in every phase of the game, and each week, his performance gets worse, not better. What's baffling about this is that the entire organization had enough faith in McCarthy's potential to be their franchise quarterback that they allowed Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones to walk away from the team.

Now we're left with a starter who can't complete a pass, an undrafted rookie free agent as the backup (Max Brosmer), and a journeyman veteran whose name I can't remember as the emergency QB3. There is no Plan B this season. It was McCarthy or bust, and the whole thing is an epic bust.

What happens next is anybody's guess. Based on the level of play from the rest of Minnesota's opponents this season, compared to McCarthy's downward spiral, it's not only conceivable but more probably that they will finish 4-13. The only advantage in this is getting a top ten draft pick.

The problem with that is nobody has faith in the front office to do anything useful with that pick. Could they get Fernando Mendoza from Indiana and start over? Would they draft Jeremiyah Love, the running back from Notre Dame, and invest in their running game? How about a starting cornerback? Or a safety who can cover anyone at all? Or a defensive lineman who can pressure the QB?

Kwesi Adofo-Mensah's ineptitude in four consecutive drafts means that young talent is sparse on this roster, and last year's free agent successes were not replicated by this year's free agent failures.

Kevin O'Connell has squandered his goodwill and reputation in Minnesota and beyond by a frustrating inability to adapt his game plans to situations, and part of McCarthy's failure lies on his doorstep, as his confidence in McCarthy was misplaced, and his attempts to develop him are failing before our eyes.

I don't know what the Vikings ownership will choose to do after this season. But I do know that they are billionaire investors, and you don't make that kind of money by throwing more money into a bad investment. You cut your losses and move on. Whatever they choose to do, I cannot see how they choose to stay the course. This is the kind of season that demands change. The extent of the change will be determined by how much farther down the scale the Vikings' ship sinks. 

The Battle of the Mystery Boxes

This Sunday is the first meeting of the football season between the Minnesota Vikings and the Green Bay Packers. A classic rivalry for decades in which the Packers have often had the upper hand, this is the calendar date that gets circled for both the Purple Gang and the Cheeseheads.

The added drama this year is that no one can predict which of the two teams will show up to play, much less what the outcome will be. There are four basic either/or scenarios on either side of the ball, and I can't remember the math formula that gives you an estimate of the possible outcomes, but here's how I break it out for each team.

Packers' Offense: MVP or MIA?
Jordan Love is your classic feast or famine quarterback. Some weeks, he looks like the unholy love child of Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, completing most of his passes even when he chucks up a dying quail as he's getting it only to fall into the hands of an uncovered wide open tight end for a touchdown. Yeah, I've seen it happen. It's like fucking witchcraft or something.

On the other hand, Love has also been at the helm this season for losses to the Browns (?!), the Panthers, and the Eagles, in which he scored, respectively, 10, 13, and 7 points. Yes, all three of those teams have good defenses, but did you see the soul-crushing interception Love threw at the end of the Browns game? He looked like a high school freshman throwing his first pass on that play.

So, who's going to show up against the Vikings? Will he pick apart a weak Vikings secondary, or will he struggle to overcome the pressure from Brian Flores' blitz schemes? Flip a coin, because I have no idea.

Packers' Defense: Whither Micah Parsons?
The trade that brought Parsons, one of the best pass rushers in the league, from Dallas to Green Bay, looked at the time like the last piece in a championship puzzle for the Packers. Since that time, Parsons has been good, but has he been great? Has he been a game-wrecker? Not really. 

Parsons has had eight sacks on the year, which is seventh in the league, but three of those sacks came against a bad Arizona team in a game the Packers only won by four points, 27-23. Sack leader Miles Garrett of Cleveland has 15 sacks, but none of them came against Minnesota, who neutralized Garrett for only three tackles on the game.

So, will Parson's add to the Vikings' ongoing QB woes, or will the recently improved Vikings' O-line keep him in check? The Magic 8-Ball says, "Ask Again Later."

Vikings' Offense: Is it the fourth quarter yet?
I won't sugar-coat it—JJ McCarthy has played terrible for most of his starts. However, he has shown flashes of brilliance in engineering end-of-game drives that have either won the game or given the Vikings a late lead. What's the disconnect? I think it's because he's just thinking too much during the regular drives.

When he's in the two-minute drill, and they have to score, he's playing without thinking. He's just hitting the first open receiver he spots, and he's putting the ball on-target. He has the physical skills to succeed, and he's demonstrated that he can engineer scoring drives at crucial times. What we're waiting to see is if that ability exists outside of the end of the game.

So, can McCarthy put together 60 minutes of average QB play? His two best performances were in-division road games at Chicago and Detroit, so maybe Lambeau Field will inspire him to succeed. Or maybe he just sucks. Who knows?

Vikings' Defense: Evil Genius or Dr. Doofus?
Sometimes Flores' defensive schemes look amazing, and the Vikings' defense is flying around the field, pressuring and sacking the quarterback, stuffing the run, and breaking up passes. Other times they look like they forgot how to tackle the person with the ball.

I don't blame the defense for the Vikings' woes this season. I think, given injuries and the fact they have to play twice as many minutes as the opposition's defense because of Minnesota's offensive struggles, they've performed about as well as we can expect. But will they get to Love and force him into his typical pattern of mistakes, or will they stumble around like they ate too many brats the night before?

So, which defense shows up for the Purple? I rolled some dice, but I never came up with sevens or snake eyes. 

Just to make this game even more fun/frustrating, I have an ongoing wager with my friend and former bandmate Joe Bancroft, an insufferable Packers fan, that when our two teams square up, the loser has to wear the winner's head gear. That's him in a Vikings cap in the picture above. I have a bad feeling he's going to stop by on Sunday afternoon and force me to wear the Cheesehead.

Prediction: An average Jordan Love performance scores enough points to edge out an improved McCarthy game in which the Packers' defense does enough at home to win, while the Vikings get burned in the passing game.

Packers 24, Vikings 20

See you Sunday, Joe. 

NFC Playoff Picture—Week 12

Today, we're taking a look at the top ten teams currently in the NFC and forecasting the rest of the season's matchups to see how the playoff seeding might shake out and who I think has the best chance to make it to the championship.

Evergreen disclaimer: All predictions guaranteed to be wrong. Please, no wagering!

1. Philadelphia Eagles (8-2)
Remaining Schedule: @DAL (L); CHI (W); @LAC (W); LV (W); @WAS (W); @BUF (W); WAS (W); projected finish: 14-3

2. Los Angeles Rams (8-2)
Remaining Schedule: TB (W); @CAR (W); @ARI (W); DET (W); @SEA (L); @ATL (W); ARI (W); projected finish: 14-3

3. Chicago Bears (7-3)
Remaining Schedule: PIT (W); @PHI (L); @GB (L); CLE (W); GB (W); @SF (L); DET (L); projected finish: 10-7

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4)
Remaining Schedule: @LAR (L); ARI (W); NO (W); ATL (W); @CAR (L); @MIA (W); CAR (W); projected finish: 11-6

5. Seattle Seahawks (7-3)
Remaining Schedule: @TEN (W); MIN (W); @ATL (W); IND (L); LAR (W); @CAR (W); @SF (L); projected finish: 12-4

6. Green Bay Packers (6-3-1)
Remaining Schedule: MIN (W); @DET (L); CHI (W); @DEN (L); @CHI (L); BAL (L); @MIN (W); projected finish: 9-7-1

7. San Francisco 49ers (7-4)
Remaining Schedule: CAR (W); @CLE (W); TEN (W); @IND (W); CHI (W); SEA (W); projected finish: 13-4

8. Detroit Lions (6-4)
Remaining Schedule: NYG (W); GB (W); DAL (W); @LAR (L); PIT (W); @MIN (W); @CHI (W); projected finish: 12-5

9. Carolina Panthers (6-5)
Remaining Schedule: @SF (L); LAR (L); @NO (W); TB (W); SEA (L); @TB (L); projected finish: 8-9

10. Dallas Cowboys (4-5-1)
Remaining Schedule: PHI (W); KC (W); @DET (L); MIN (W); LAC (W); @WAS (W); @NYG (W); projected finish: 10-6-1

FINAL PROJECTED STANDINGS
1. Philadelphia (bye)
2. Los Angeles Rams
3. Detroit
4. Tampa Bay
5. San Francisco
6. Seattle
7. Dallas

WILD CARD ROUND
Los Angeles over Dallas
Detroit over Seattle
San Francisco over Tampa Bay

DIVISIONAL ROUND
Philadelphia over San Francisco
Los Angeles over Detroit

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Los Angeles over Philadelphia

Photo credit: NFC logo is a copyright of the National Football League

AFC Playoff Picture—Week 12

Who's making the playoffs in the AFC? Let's take a look at the current standings and try to project with the remaining schedule where they're going to end up. (Disclaimer: all predictions guaranteed to be wrong. For entertainment purposes only. Please, no wagering.)

1. Denver Broncos (9-2)
Remaining schedule: @WAS (W); @LV (W); GB (W); JAX (W); @KC (L); LAC (L); projected finish: 13-4

2. New England Patriots (9-2)
Remaining schedule: @CIN (W); NYG (W); BUF (L); @BAL (L); @NYJ (W); MIA (W); projected finish: 13-4

3. Indianapolis Colts (8-2)
Remaining schedule: @KC (L); HOU (W); @JAX (W); @SEA (L); SF (L); JAX (W); @HOU (W); projected finish: 12-5

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4)
Remaining schedule: @CHI (L); BUF (L); @BAL (L); MIA (W); @DET (L); @CLE (W); BAL (L); projected finish: 8-9

5. Buffalo Bills (7-3)
Remaining schedule: @HOU (W); @PIT (W); CIN (W); @NE (W); @CLE (W); PHI (L); NYJ (W); projected finish: 13-4

6. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
Remaining schedule: LV (W); PHI (L); @KC (L); @DAL (L); HOU (W); @DEN (W); projected finish: 10-7

7. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4)
Remaining schedule: @ARI (W); @TEN (W); IND (L); NYJ (W); @DEN (L); @IND (L); TEN (W); projected finish: 10-7

8. Houston Texans (5-5)
Remaining schedule: BUF (L); @IND (L); @KC (L); ARI (W); LV (W); @LAC (L); IND (L); projected finish: 7-10

9. Kansas City Chiefs (5-5)
Remaining schedule: IND (W); @DAL (L); HOU (W); LAC (W); @TEN (W); DEN (W); @LV (W); projected finish: 11-6

10. Baltimore Ravens (5-5)
Remaining schedule: NYJ (W); CIN (W); PIT (W); @CIN (W); NE (W); @GB (W); @PIT (W); projected finish: 12-5

FINAL PROJECTED STANDINGS
1. Denver (bye)
2. New England
3. Indianapolis
4. Baltimore
5. Buffalo
6. Kansas City
7. Los Angeles 

WILD CARD ROUND
New England over Los Angeles
Indianapolis over Kansas City
Buffalo over Baltimore

DIVISIONAL ROUND
Denver over Buffalo
New England over Indianapolis 

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Denver over New England

Photo credit: AFC logo is a copyright of the National Football League

From Disappointment to Hopelessness

The Vikings House of Horrors

The Minnesota Vikings are broken, and the only question that needs to be answered is whether the Wilf family ownership thinks their current football staff can fix it.

First off, the JJ McCarthy experience is not working. Whatever talent and potential may still remain, he is not progressing as a QB at this point in his young career. Problems with accuracy and turnovers remain, and after yesterday's game at home against the Bears, they've become more apparent and problematic.

More concerning is the performance of the Vikings receivers. Justin Jefferson is openly frustrated, and he, along with Jordan Addison, Adam Thielen, and TJ Hockenson are dropping passes right and left, passes that should be easily caught. What's going on here? Is it a symptom of their larger frustrations?

Head coach Kevin O'Connell has had a mostly healthy offensive line for a couple of games, and although they gave McCarthy time to throw yesterday, he still took too long to progress through his reads and get the ball off in time.

Although KOC showed a greater commitment to the run, he didn't stick with it enough to make a difference in the final score. McCarthy did engineer a go-ahead drive late in the fourth, but the inability of the Vikings special teams to pin Chicago back on the ensuing kickoff sealed their fate.

So what now?

They're not making the playoffs. Looking ahead at their schedule, I only see two more possible wins: at home against the Commanders and at the NY Giants, but they stink at home, and the Giants are frisky at times.

Here are the on-field questions we need to answer this season:

1. Can McCarthy show improvement in terms of accuracy and reducing interceptions?

2. Can the offensive line stay healthy and protect McCarthy?

3. Will KOC increase his commitment to the run game?

4. Will the defense hold up if the offense keeps sending them back out onto the field?

5. Will the Vikings receivers start making catches? Are they so frustrated with the poor play of their young QB that they're giving up?

Beyond the season, here are the three most important questions the Wilfs will have to decide for themselves:

1. Has McCarthy shown enough progress by the end of the year to warrant giving him a second season at QB? If not, is there a Plan B?

2. O'Connell has built a great culture in Minnesota, but is he the right coach to take the team to the next level?

3. This team is too old and lacks depth. They should have at least 10 picks in the next draft, but GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has a terrible track record in the draft. Can he and his draft team be trusted to pick the right players to build for the future?

Sitting here today, those answers are all, "I don't know. It doesn't seem like it," and that's why Vikings fans today are slipping from disappointment into hopelessness.

Photo credit: "US Bank Stadium interior - Minnesota Vikings orientation" by Darb02 is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0.

The Minneapolis Miracle

Did that just happen? Was it not a dream?

This is not what happens for the Minnesota Vikings; this is what happens to the Minnesota Vikings. Roger Staubach to Drew Pearson in 1975, the very first "Hail Mary." Losing their fourth Superbowl to John Madden's best Oakland Raiders team ever. 1998—wide left, take a knee, lose in OT. Brett Favre throwing a pick after repeated late hits (uncalled, of course) from the Saints in 2009. Blair Walsh wide left after outplaying a superior Seahawks team in a throwback outdoor winter game in Minnesota.

Yes, all of those things and so many more have happened over the years, and I've been a Minnesota Vikings fan since the winter of 1975, when my dad and grandpa taught me how to understand football. The Vikings were 10-0 at the time, and I watched Fran Tarkenton play quarterback for the first time. I was hooked for life, like I had just mainlined a bad drug.

Over the years, I've become accustomed, as have so many other Vikings fans, to the kind of Nordic stoic fatalism that comes with having your sports fan hearts broken over and over again. While I'm never going to root for the Cubs (I have Cardinals DNA; I'm genetically incapable), I did feel joy for their fan base when they finally won the World Series. I felt the same way for Cleveland when the Cavs won the NBA title. Every fan base deserves at least one championship in a generation. Just one is enough.

Unless you cheer for the Vikings, because until last night, all evidence pointed to one incontrovertible fact: God hates the Vikings. That's why, even up 17-0 at halftime, all I could think about was the missed 49-yard field goal at the end of the first half. Sure enough, by early in the fourth quarter, it was 17-14, then with three minutes left, 21-20. I did what my heart and mind do automatically in these situations: I prepared for the inevitable loss.

Even when the Vikings kicked a long field goal to take a 23-21 lead, there was 1:29 left to go. That was more than enough time for a QB like Drew Brees, a future first-ballot HOFer, to drive them down for the go-ahead field goal. They even faced a fourth-and-ten, but Brees converted easily. By the time the Vikings got the ball back, there were only 25 second left in the game and the season, and not only were they on their own 25-yard line, they started the drive with a false start penalty.

I began to think about how to process the loss. All credit to Drew Brees and Sean Payton, hope the Saints beat the Eagles and then crush the Patriots in the Superbowl. Vikings QB Case Keenum completes a pass to the Vikings 40; they call time out with 19 seconds to go. Did anyone really think we were going to go to the Superbowl with Case Keenum as our QB? Incomplete, second down. This was going to be the biggest playoff deficit—17 points—ever given up, the biggest deficit ever overcome by the Saints. Incomplete, third down, ten seconds left. Get ready for the loss, prepare for the letdown, it's just a game, it's not the end of the world, process the disappointment and let it go...

Did this just happen? Was it not a dream?

I can only describe my reaction as 15 minutes of primal scream therapy. My kids came down the hall to my room to see if I was being murdered. I shouted in joy and celebration until my throat was hoarse. My family called and friends started sending texts of congratulations. I watched replay after replay, sharing the same dumbfounded amazement as the players, coaches, press, and fans who witnessed what will certainly go down as one of the most amazing, improbable, miraculous finishes to any football game in the history of the NFL.

This isn't the end. This was a marvelous, wondrous, miraculous victory, no doubt. But it's just the first step. Unless the Vikings beat the Eagles on the road next week in the NFC Championship, then somehow manage to topple the Patriots (nice job, Jags, but you're not forking winning at Foxboro. Not. Gonna. Happen.), the catch becomes a nice footnote in the endless flow of playoff futility. Nothing short of a Superbowl win in their home stadium can truly end the misery and longing of every true fan of the Purple and Gold.

But this will forever be known as the Minneapolis Miracle. TE Kyle Rudolph said this morning on "Golic and Wingo" on ESPN Radio that the name of the play call was "Heaven." Rudolph said, "You just gotta give it up."

Maybe, just maybe...God has decided to stop hating the Vikings.

NFC Wild Card Contenders...It's Anyone's Game to Win

It's no surprise that in the much-stronger NFC, we can expect the Wild Card race to be much more competitive, and whoever emerges from the fray is much more likely to move on to the Divisional Round, and with the injury to Carson Wentz in Philly, possibly the NFC Championship in...Minnesota? New Orleans? Let's take a look at the scenarios and the probabilities...

Carolina Panthers (9-4, #5 seed)—at home against the Packers and the Bucs, then final week on the road in Atlanta, I predict they will go 2-1 with a meaningless last-week loss to Atlanta, followed by a win in LA over the Rams before the Vikings get their revenge on the Panthers in the divisional round.

Atlanta Falcons (8-5, #6 seed)—their last three games are at the Bucs and at the Saints, then home to the Panthers. If they split with the Bucs and the Saints (they will), that puts them at 9-6, while Carolina will be 11-4. They won't get seeded any higher than sixth, but they might need to win that last game to get into the playoffs. It may or may not be enough. Even if they do win, they're not beating the Saints on the road in the Wild Card round.

Seattle Seahawks (8-5, out of playoffs)—They're hosting the Rams this week and the Cardinals the last week of the season (two wins), so their penultimate game at Dallas will determine whether they can overtake Atlanta for the sixth seed. I hate to see Seattle in the playoffs again, but if I were a betting man, I'd take them over Atlanta at this point in the season. They could beat the Saints on the road, also.

All at 7-6:
Detroit Lions—Bears (win); at Bengals (win); Packers (loss) puts them at 9-7, but if they can beat the Packers at home and sweep the final three games, 10-6 could get them a trip to New Orleans. Don't count them out just yet.

Green Bay Packers—at Panthers (loss); Vikings (loss); at Lions (win). They could flip-flop Vikings/Lions, but they're not beating the Panthers, so that's still just 9-7 at best even with Aaron Rodgers returning from injury. They don't have the pieces around him to sweep three games.

Dallas Cowboys—at Raiders (win); Seahawks (win); at Eagles (win). Why? Ezekiel Elliott is coming back from suspension, that's why, and the Eagles won't have anything to play for. If they sweep, they finish 10-6 and have a chance to get in, but they'll need lots of help above them.

My prediction: Carolina gets the five-seed; Seattle steals the sixth.

AFC Wild Card Contenders...Cannon Fodder

The AFC is in the unusual position of being clearly the weaker of the two conferences this year. They really only have two upper echelon teams in the Steelers and the Patriots, with everyone else vying for scrimmage opponents for the two superior organizations. But rules determine that because of TV money and crap like that, instead of just putting Pittsburgh and New England into the AFC Championship without two weeks of pointless games, we have to come up with six teams. So let's see who's going to stink it up in the first week of the playoffs.

Not beating the Patriots...ever.

Jacksonville Jaguars (predicted 10-6 record)
In my conference leaders preview, I said that the Jags and the Titans were basically the same team. Looking ahead at their four remaining games, it looks like they should both finish 10-6. Since Tennessee owns the tie-breaker, it looks like Jacksonville will be the fifth seed, which should pit them against Kansas City. I like their chances against Andy Reid in the first round. Their defense might keep them in the next game against the Pats, but Blake Bortles is not winning a game at Foxboro.
Prediction: Loss at New England in Divisional Round

Let's get ready to rumbllllllllllllllle!

Baltimore Ravens (predicted 9-7 record)
The Ravens could very well finish 3-1, but they're likely to cough up a game to Cincy or Cleveland, so I'm going with 2-2 and the sixth seed. This puts them on the road against Tennessee, where their playoff experience takes the game and brings about the divisional matchup against Pittsburgh that everyone looks forward to every year. This is consistently the best and most vicious grudge match in the league, and it's definitely must-see TV.
Prediction: Loss at Pittsburgh in Divisional Round

Close but no Cigar:

Looks like a pick-six to me.

LA Chargers—Moving an hour north doesn't change the fact that no one chokes at the wrong time late in the season like Philip Rivers. They'll lose at least two of their last four games and finish out of the running at 8-8.

The agony of defeat...

Buffalo Bills—I have a soft spot for the Bills because their playoff and Superbowl misery is on par with my own beloved Minnesota Vikings, but despite a tough defense, they have no quarterback to speak of. They have two games against the Dolphins (split), a probably win against the woeful Colts, and a sure loss to New England. That's 8-8 and an extension of the longest current playoff drought in the league.

"I wanna look like a toddler!"

Oakland Raiders—The Silver-and-Black should be running away with the AFC West thanks to KC's epic collapse, but for some reason, the pieces are just not clicking in Oakland. Maybe it's karma for their goofy-haircut bastard of an owner moving the team to Las Vegas. And what the hell is the deal with multi-millionaires and billionaires with terrible haircuts? Hire a Hollywood hair stylist; bowls are for cooking, not haircuts. They're going to finish 1-3 with a 7-9 record overall.

Every other team in the AFC is below .500; none of the remaining 5-7 teams (Jets, Dolphins, Bengals) are going on a four-game winning streak, and even if they did, that would still just give any of them a 9-7 record and a predicted tie with Baltimore. Odds are about the same as Powerball, so I'm not putting my prognosticating reputation (suspect as it is) on the line for that.

Next time: NFC Wild Card Odds

2017 NFL Playoff Predictions: NFC

Day Two of NFL Playoff Predictions guaranteed to go wrong takes us to the NFC, clearly the stronger of the two conferences overall this year, which makes it even more difficult to accurately predict. My conundrum is compounded by the fact that as of this writing, my beloved Minnesota Vikings sit atop the NFC standings. Anyone who is a Vikings fan knows that this is counter-intuitive information...the better things look for the Vikings, the farther the fall and the more painful the heartbreak will be.

Yeah. This could happen.

It's like this: you have a wonderful, joyous affair four-month affair with Kate Upton that you plan to culminate with a wedding in Vegas; you make it to the altar, where she joins you for the ceremony, only to change her mind and leave you just before she says her vows. Knowing this is going to happen neither deters you from pursuing her nor alleviates the pain of the inevitable loss.

Yeah, that's what it's like to be a Vikings fan.
Every.
Single.
Time.

Carson Wentz that-a-way...

NFC East Leader: Philadelphia Eagles
Pro: The NFL's best and most consistent all-around team, their schedule still looks like 13-3 even if they lose the LA to the {wretching, gagging noise} Rams this weekend. After that, they're at the Giants (black hole of awfulness) and then home against Oakland and Dallas. It looks like they have the inside track on home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Con: Did their loss at Seattle expose inherent weaknesses, or was it an outlier? Look at this weekend's game at the {projectile vomiting} Rams to see how they respond to a talented QB and vicious defense on the other side of the ball.
Prediction: NFC Champions

Alvin Kamara or Flavor Flav?

NFC South Leader: New Orleans Saints
Pro: Drew Brees playing QB like an '80s game of Tecmo Bowl, and the most frightening one-two punch of running backs in Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara that we've seen on any team in decades. They still have two games against Atlanta, which if they split, they have what looks like easy games against the Jets and Tampa Bay. Look for them to finish 11-4.
Con: Can they persevere in a close game against a tough defense? We'll probably have to wait until the playoffs to see about that. And it's going to happen again in Minnesota.
Prediction: Loss to Minnesota in Divisional Round.

Every Vikings fan needs therapy.

NFC North Leader: Minnesota Vikings
Pro: A defense without any discernible weaknesses, teams simply haven't been able to score on the Vikings this season. In the past three weeks, they held the Rams {bleaaaah} to a mere touchdown, and they went on the road to hold Atlanta to three field goals. You can't pass or run on them regardless of your weapons.
Con: When will midnight strike for Case Keenum and we see his ball gown turn to cleaning rags? Is is conceivable that Keenum, a career backup, can do what Kurt Warner did in St. Louis? Bitch, please...this is Minnesota. Keenum will not do what Fran Tarkenton, Randall Cunningham, and Brett Favre were unable to do. Midnight is coming, Viking nation. Try to enjoy the dance for as long as it lasts.
Prediction: Beats New Orleans in Divisional Round; loses to Philadelphia in NFC Championship

Look into the dead eyes of pure evil.

NFC West Leader: Los Angeles {RALLLPH!} Rams
Pro: Jared Goff becoming the QB the team hoped he would in trading away last year's draft to get him; Todd Gurley running wild up and down the field; a vicious, punishing defense that specializes in making QBs miserable and ineffective; no more Jeff "fitty-fitty" Fisher "coaching" on the sidelines.
Con: They are owned by P.Enos Kroenke, and I refuse to believe that the universe will not bitch-slap him with a karmic enema year after year after year until his black soul is reunited in Perdition with his Dark Master.
Prediction: Loss to Philadelphia in Divisional Round

Next up: AFC/NFC Wild Card Predictions

2017 NFL Playoff Predictions: AFC

It's the best time of the year for NFL fans; as Christmas approaches, so does the opportunity for disappointment, heartbreak, depression, and despair...all those things we look forward to in the holiday season. Today I'm going to look at the front-runners in the AFC; I'll tackle the NFC leaders tomorrow, and I'll take a look at the Wild Card odds next week after this weekend's games. Play along and keep score at home, and as always, all predictions are guaranteed to go wrong.

Ha-ha! I own the referees!

AFC East Leaders: New England Patriots
Pro: Their head coach and quarterback made a deal with the devil that apparently doesn't expire until sometime in the next decade. They also play in the most pathetically weak division in the league, so having six automatic wins means .500 everywhere else wins the division. Oh, and the referees are clearly on Robert Kraft's Christmas bonus list.
Con: The league's most hated team, the goal of the AFC playoffs is to keep them out of their, what is it now, ninth Superbowl appearance? Look for the kind of head hunting not seen since Gregg Williams coached the Saints defense.
Prediction: Loses AFC Championship game

I'm smarter than you!

AFC North Leaders: Pittsburgh Steelers
Pro: Mike Tomlin, the NFL's smartest coach; LeVeon Bell, the NFL's toughest runner; Antonio Brown, my fantasy team savior every week; Ben Roethisberger, the Jason Vorhees of quarterbacks.
Con: They'll have to play the AFC title game on the road in New England; their scoring has been inconsistent this year.
Prediction: AFC Champions

Paying off the refs explains a lot.

AFC South Leaders: Tennessee Titans 
and Jacksonville Jaguars (tied at 8-4)
Tennessee: How the #%@& is this team 8-4?
Prediction: Wild Card Playoff Loss

Jacksonville: How the #%@& is this team 8-4?
Prediction: Wild Card Playoff Loss






AFC West Leaders: Chiefs, Chargers, Raiders, all tied at 6-6

This is how many people think I'm going to win a playoff game.

Look, we all know that the Chefs are in freefall, but their next three games are all at home against Oakland, LA Chargers, and Miami, with their final game at Denver, who is a garbage fire this year. I think the Chefs are going to turn it around and go out on a four-game winning streak to take the division. The Chargers are legendary for pooping their pants when the playoffs are on the line late in the season, and I don't trust Oakland to do anything predictable from week to week other than play way below their talent and potential.
Prediction: KC takes division, loses in Wild Card round

Now all my football demons have been cast out...

I've been watching professional football since 1976, when I was eight years old and my maternal grandfather, along with my dad, introduced me to Fran Tarkenton and the Minnesota Vikings. I've been a die-hard Vikings fan ever since, which means that I've suffered a lot of heartbreak. My grandpa was from St. Louis, so I've also followed the football Cardinals until their departure after a dismal 1985 campaign, then welcomed the St. Louis Rams in 1995. The Rams gave us the Greatest Show on Turf, four years of glory, a lonely island in a sea of feckless ineptitude.

My football fandom has not been a total loss. I saw the Rams win what many people think was the most exciting of all the Super Bowls in 2000 over the Tennessee Titans, and I celebrated in 2006 when Peyton Manning and the Colts beat the Patriots in the AFC Championship (what my blog entry calls "The Greatest NFL Game Ever Played"), followed his sole Super Bowl win over the Bears. So it's not like I've never had the chance to break out my copy of Queen's "Greatest Hits" and blast "We Are The Champions" throughout my house.

But for the most part, NFL fandom is an exercise in annual heartbreak. Even the great champion cities of Pittsburgh, Dallas, and San Francisco have lost more season than they've won. For me, it's reached the point where I'm happy if one of my favorite teams makes it to the playoffs (which has been forever for Minnesota and St. Louis).

With that said, the following are my five most heartbreaking NFL losing experiences, all of which were expelled with the same force as Legion being cast into a herd of swine after yesterday's NFC Championship game. We'll get to that in a bit; first, my pain, then my redemption.

Still my favorite QB of all time.

#5. Vikings vs. Raiders, Super Bowl 11, 1977
This was the year I was introduced to the Vikings, who went 10-0 before finishing 11-2-1 and beating Washington and the L.A. Rams to get to their fourth Super Bowl. Then they met the best Oakland Raiders team that John Madden ever coached and lost 32-14. I remember walking out of the house and trudging miserably through the snow before the game was over when I realized the Vikings had no chance to win. I should have just given up then.

EPIC FAIL

#4. Cardinals vs. Washington, 1984
This was the last St. Louis football Cardinals game I ever watched. After taking a 27-26 fourth quarter lead, the Cardinals gave up a field goal to trail 29-27. QB Neil Lomax took the team down in the waning moments to give kicker Neil O'Donahue a chance at a 38-yard game-winning field goal that would have put the Cardinals into the playoffs. Wide right. Four years later, the team moved to Phoenix. I didn't care.

#3. Vikings vs. Saints, NFC Championship, 2010
This was the year Brett Favre came out of retirement (again) and had a simply magical season with the Vikings. Had the referees decided to actually call one or two of the at least 17 roughing the passer personal foul penalties that should have been called on the New Orleans defense, the Vikings probably win this game by two touchdowns. They would have played Peyton's Colts in the Super Bowl, giving me the rare opportunity to root for both teams and be happy regardless of who won. Instead, I hope New Orleans never makes the playoffs again. Ever.

Kurt Warner, HOF (soon!)

#2. Rams vs. Patriots, Super Bowl 36, 2002
The Patriots illegally videotaped the Rams' practice walk-throughs, giving their defense the necessary advantage to derail an offense that was utterly unstoppable that year. Years later,  when the cheating came to light and after the NFL's "investigation," all the recorded evidence of the cheating was destroyed. Yeah, yeah, move along, nothing to see here. I can only take solace in the fact that some day Tom Brady will be too old to play football, and even further into the future, when Bill Belicheck passes away, the devil will finally cash in on Belicheat's end of their bargain.

What Moss meant to the Vikings

#1. Vikings vs. Falcons, NFC Championship, 1998
This is the Rosetta Stone of misery for all Vikings fans. All it would have taken to seal the game in the fourth quarter was a 38-yard field goal by Gary Anderson, who hadn't missed all season. He missed, of course, and Atlanta tied the game with less than two minutes remaining, then won it in overtime. Until yesterday, all you had to say to a Vikings fan was "1998" to either: a) reduce him to tears; or b) enrage him to the point of homicidal psychosis. But thanks to our longtime rivals, the Green Bay Packers, Vikings fans can at last take solace in the fact that we no longer own the worst choke-job in the history of conference championship games.

Here's why my list no longer matters: Up 19-7 with five minutes to go in Seattle, a venue where most visiting teams have no chance to win, Green Bay, led by the NFL's best QB, Aaron Rodgers, goes three-and-out with three weak runs. On the next series, Russell Wilson throws his fourth interception of the day. Green Bay takes over near midfield with less than four minutes to play. Run, run, run, punt. Rodgers never throws the ball.

Next, a Packers defense that had successfully contained Seattle's offense all day allows them to score a touchdown in less than a minute, then loses the on-side kick when it goes through the hands of a backup tight end, then gives up another touchdown by being unable to tackle either Marshawn Lynch or Russell Wilson on long runs, then gives up a two-point conversion that Wilson just threw up for grabs as he was going down, then ties it up with a field goal to send it to overtime (even though it would have won them the game except for the miracle two-point conversion), then loses the overtime coin toss, then gives up a Hail-Mary touchdown pass on the first Seattle possession in overtime.

Go ahead. Let it out.

Count it up. 1) Three and out. 2) Intercepted Wilson AGAIN! 3) Three and out. 4) Gives up TD. 5) Loses onside kick. 6) Gives up go-ahead touchdown. 7) Gives up impossible two-point conversion. 8) Can't score winning TD, settles for overtime. 9) Loses OT coin toss. 10) Gives up game-winning TD on Hail-Mary pass on Seattle's first possession. Ten disastrous events, all coming after they held a 12-point lead with five minutes to play.

Thank you, Green Bay. You've just relieved me of 30 years of football futility. I'd like to tell you that you'll get over it someday, but that day is likely to be a long time coming.

AFC Championship Preview

Well, for most of the country who doesn't have a vested rooting interest in an AFC team, this is the game they all wanted. Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning, round four: New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos. The last time these two quarterbacks met in an AFC Championship Game, it resulted in what I wrote about in 2007 as "The Best Football Game of All Time." We should probably expect the same this time around.

When these two teams met earlier this year in New England, Denver jumped out to a big lead at halftime and then squandered it in the second half. Like I wrote in 2007, New England is Jason Voorhees, Michael Myers, and Freddy Krueger all rolled up into one unstoppable killing machine. And as much as it pains me to write this, I think that's what we can expect to see unfold in Denver this Sunday afternoon. Let me break it down quarter by quarter...

First Quarter: Both teams punt on their first possession, but New England gets the first score toward the end of the quarter after a long drive. NE 7, DEN 0.

Second Quarter: Peyton gets rolling and puts up two touchdowns. Brady follows with a quick drive, throwing the ball down field at will through the porous Denver secondary. Peyton drives the Broncos down field in a two-minute drill that results in a half-ending field goal. DEN 17, NE 14.

Third Quarter: Denver gets the ball first and kicks another field goal. Both defenses tighten up, and each team only manages one TD in this quarter. DEN 27, NE 21.

Fourth Quarter: Brady starts to light it up, once again taking advantage of the fact that Denver's defensive backs are about as effective against the pass as the Titanic was against icebergs. New England scores two touchdowns, while all Denver can muster throughout most of the fourth quarter is another field goal. With less than four minutes to play in the game, New England kicks off to Denver with the score NE 35, DEN 30.

Now is the time where Peyton does what he's done so many times before. With pinpoint accuracy and the calm that comes from the fact that he is a cold-blooded assassin, Manning drives the Broncos across the goal line for the go-ahead touchdown, putting Denver up 37-35. There's only one problem: there are 55 second left to play in the game, and New England still has two time outs.

Brady takes the ball on his own 20 yard line. The Denver pass rush doesn't get within a mile—high, low, or any direction—of Brady at any point. Denver's pass defense brings to mind other notable defensive stalwarts like the French infantry in WW2 or Saddam Hussein's Republican Guard, and four plays later, with four seconds remaining, Stephen Gostkowski kicks a 38-yard field goal to give the Patriots the AFC Championship with a final score of 38-37.

At this point, I once again vow never to watch another NFL game for as long as I live. My wife will roll her eyes in long-suffering derision.

Why do they call it "golf"?

Way back in the early nineties, I was playing golf with my friend and roommate Bill Williams at a public course in Columbia. I love to play golf, but I stink. I've never shot better than 50 for nine holes, and that's with a liberal amount of mulligans. Anyway, we were joined early on by a couple of older guys—in their fifties or sixties, I guessed—around the second or third hole, and I found myself just butchering the fifth or sixth, taking my usual 8 or 9 on a par four. This prompted one of the older players to ask me, "Do you know why they call it 'golf'?" I shook my head.

"Because 'Oh, #&@$!' was already taken."

It's my favorite weekend of golf, the U.S. Open, and I'm pretty sure NBC's on-course microphones are on a seven-second delay so as not to inadvertently broadcast "#&@$," "$#^%," and the ever-popular "%@#$&#@$%#!" sure to be uttered by so many of these talented golfers this weekend.

What makes the U.S. Open great is a sadistic cruelty inflicted by the United States Golf Association on its annual entrants. It's great because it makes these ridiculously good professionals (and a few great amateurs) look like...well, like me.

Well, maybe not just like me, but you see the kind of shots that weekend duffers all over the country deal with consistently. Because of the difficulty of the course—especially the course at Merion near Philadelphia this week—you see beautiful tee shots take a bad bounce into deep rough, followed by rough shots that only go 100 yards. Back on the fairway, they'll put a wedge less than ten feet away from the hole, only the watch the putt slide right by the hole.

Merion has played like the Marquis de Sade of golf courses so far this week. I'm in the midst of watching third round coverage on a Saturday afternoon, and the tournament lead is at -1. Phil Mickelson, a five-time runner up in this tournament, is two strokes back, evidently getting a head start on choking away this title. Tiger is at +6; NBC keeps him on mute and won't show a close-up when he talks for fear of offending astute lip-readers.

These greens are just insane—almost impossible to read and evidently equipped with ball-repelling force fields, a new innovation from the dungeon masters at the USGA. I'm waiting for someone to freak out and start breaking clubs over his knees and tossing them into a pond (my money's on Tiger—he's just having a miserable round).

There used to be a PGA Tour ad with the tagline, "These guys are good." The U.S. Open should use this for their promos:

Adam Wainwright: Baseball's Best Pitcher

The discussion this year really should be about whether Cardinals ace starter Adam Wainwright will win his second (or perhaps his third) Cy Young award. He should have finished second to Chris Carpenter (or won the thing outright) in 2009 when the award inexplicably went to Tim Lincecum. He finished second to Roy Halladay in 2010 despite having a lower ERA.

I'm less bitter about Halladay than Lincecum, which was just a travesty. It will also be a travesty this year if Waino continues to pitch in the form we've seen so far this season and loses the Cy Young again to someone less deserving but closer to the myopic media centers on the East and West coasts. 

For example? Clayton Kershaw (LA)—great ERA, but only a 5-4 record. Jordan Zimmerman (WAS)—9-3, but team is barely above .500. Sure, if you look at a variety of different statistics, you can make a case for a variety of pitchers who deserve accolades at this stage of the season. But baseball is more than just statistics—it's also about chemistry and leadership.

Wainwright is on his second full season following Tommy John surgery, and he's more dominant than ever. He has full command of all his pitches, especially his vicious and destructive curveball. He has also emerged as the undisputed leader of the Cardinals young, talented pitching staff. All of the Cardinals highly touted rookie arms look to Wainwright for guidance and wisdom.

Wainwright inherited the leadership role from Chris Carpenter when Carp went down with nerve damage, and even if he makes it back to the staff this season, the pitching staff still belongs to Waino. He's also the team's undisputed stopper, the one you want on the mound after a tough loss.

He's always likely to strike out 8-12 hitters, pitch at least 7-8 strong innings, walk no one, and give up two runs or less. He's the first pitcher in the NL to reach 10 wins this season, and he's in the top four in ERA and strikeouts. A sure-fire All-Star selection, he's likely to get the start in New York this summer.

But if that doesn't convince you, just watch this:

He's got MOVES!

The Tebow Dilemma

One thing I've never understood about the whole Tim Tebow phenomenon—both the good and the bad—is how so many people use one's opinion about Tebow's abilities to play quarterback at the NFL level as a litmus test of religious faith. Simply put, Tebow is, by all accounts, a young man of strong faith who professes a public commitment to living a Christ-centered life. Wonderful. He's also a lousy NFL quarterback. Not as wonderful.

In this age of social media and instant offense at the slightest of remarks, pointing out that Tebow's skill at QB in the NFL is atrocious has become akin to pounding another nail through Jesus's wrist. What? Since when did religious faith of any kind have anything at all to do with a person's athletic skill? The history of the NFL is full of outstanding QBs who range from strong men of faith (Kurt Warner) to others who wouldn't get within a zip code of any of my daughters (Ben Roethlisberger). One has nothing to do with the other.

Except with Tim Tebow. To criticize his ability is taken by his most vehement supporters as a slight to the faith. I'm sorry to inform those people of this simple fact, but here it is: Jesus himself, if he were an NFL head coach, wouldn't start Tebow at QB. Get over it.

That leads us to Bill Belichick, who will never be confused at any time for Jesus Christ. He has, for some unseen reason, decided to sign Tebow as a third-string QB for the New England Patriots. The connection is, of course, NE offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, Tebow's head coach in Denver. Is this charity? Did McDaniels convince Belichick that Tebow still has real potential? Only time will tell, but from my seat here in the midwest, I can think of a few scenarios.

1) Tebow will be a third-string quarterback. This is the most likely. I find it hard to see Tebow outplaying Ryan Mallet—an unbelievably skilled QB at Arkansas—for the second-string job. And Tebow has as much chance of beating out Tom Brady for the job as he does convincing Brady's wife Giselle Bundchen of running away to Florida with him. So he rides the pine and holds a clipboard. Glamorous job, huh? 

2) Tebow will be a gimmick player. He'll be used sparingly on gadget and gimmick plays like direct snaps from the RB position, or some variation of the wildcat offense. This seems even less likely from either Belichick's or Brady's standpoint. Bringing Tebow in every once in a while does nothing to make your offense more potent. The Jets proved that when Tebow only comes in once or twice a game, it's easy  to stop him.

3) Belichick and McDaniels finally convince Tebow to play a different position. This is the idea that makes the most sense. He can run the ball better than most fullbacks. I assume he could catch from either the RB or the TE position. And, every once in a while, he could throw the ball downfield (his long arm is much better than his short game—watch his Denver games and see). In fact, Tebow could be a whole new type of position player: the Hybrid. You really don't know what he's going to do—run? Pass? Catch? All of the above on one play? He would be a bigger star in this role than he would ever be as a below-average QB.

There's nothing wrong, absolutely no shame, in being the best that you can be at what you do well. The best that Tebow can be as a QB is to sit on the bench as a third-stringer. The best that he could be as a hybrid RB/FB/TE/QB is create an entirely new position; he could be a real pioneer in the evolution of the offensive game in the same way we see with players like RGIII and Colin Kaepernick. 

I don't know who keeps telling Tim Tebow that it's his destiny to be a starting NFL QB. I don't think it's Jesus, and I don't think it's going to be Bill Belichick, either. Maybe one of them can convince him that a successful career leads down a much different path. 

Playoff picks destined to be laughably wrong

NFC Playoffs
1. San Francisco
2. Atlanta
3. Chicago
4. Dallas
5. Green Bay
6. Carolina

Wild Card Games
Chicago over Carolina
Green Bay over Dallas

Divisional Games
Atlanta over Chicago
San Francisco over Green Bay

NFC Championship
San Francisco over Atlanta

AFC Playoffs
1. Baltimore
2. Houston
3. New England
4. Denver
5. Cincinnati
6. Buffalo

Wild Card Games
New England over Buffalo
Denver over Cincinnati

Divisional Games
Baltimore over Denver
Houston over New England

AFC Championship
Baltimore over Houston

Superbowl
Baltimore over San Francisco in the battle of the Harbaugh brothers

2012 NFL Preview: The American Football Conference

One of the reasons I'm really excited about this season is that it's the first real indication of team strength that we've seen in the NFL in three seasons. Last season was damaged due to the lockout, and the year before that, teams didn't make many moves due to uncertainty about the future collective bargaining agreement. So this year, we see which teams got better, which teams got old, and which teams are building for the future. This dynamic couldn't be any clearer than it is in the AFC.

I said, "I'm a giant douche bag!"

AFC East
1) New England Patriots (12-4)
2) Buffalo Bills (10-6)
3) New York Jets (7-9)
4) Miami Dolphins (2-14)

As long as Brady and Belichick are together, this is a playoff team, but everyone gets older. The Bills take another step forward, building on their potential from last year's surprising start. The Tebow circus in New York will more than likely usher loudmouth HC Rex Ryan out the door. Miami, like Tampa, features a professional [sic] football organization.

Are you sure? I thought the
Village People had a football player.

AFC NORTH
1) Baltimore Ravens (13-3)
2) Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)
3) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
4) Cleveland Browns (5-11)

The Ravens need to take advantage of what is almost certainly the last hurrah of their Hall of Fame-bound veteran defenders. It's also time for Joe Flacco to take the same leap forward that Eli Manning did last year from game manager to clutch time leader. Also, his receivers need to HOLD ON TO THE DAMN BALL! Marvin Lewis will continue to overachieve with a Bengals team that will be better still than last year. My friends who are Steelers fans will hate me for saying this, but they are just getting too old, and Ben's health is a huge concern this season. Cleveland is, well, Cleveland, and that ain't good.

Nah, it doesn't make any more sense
when you turn it upside down.

AFC SOUTH
1) Houston Texans (13-3)
2) Tennessee Titans (8-8)
3) Indianapolis Colts (4-12)
4) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)

If Matt Schaub can stay healthy, the Texans are my top pick to represent the AFC in the Superbowl this year. The Titans are still developing under Jake Locker; Andrew Luck will put up some great numbers, but the Colts are obviously still operating under the rebuilding paradigm. Jaguars players can look forward to shopping for real estate in southern California in a year or two. Blaine Gabbert would have done much better in Minnesota.

OW! MY NECK!! Sorry guys,
I was just messing with you!

AFC WEST
1) Denver (10-6)
2) San Diego (9-7)
3) Oakland (8-8)
4) Kansas City (6-10)

Come on, would I ever pick against Peyton Manning? If they went 8-8 with Tebow, they should, at the very least, win the division. San Diego will keep spinning its wheels until they hire a new head coach. Oakland will continue to baffle us with potential that's never fulfilled (kind of like Carson Palmer's career), and sorry KC fans...I'm just not feeling any love for Romeo.

Tomorrow: Playoff picks destined to be laughably wrong.