NFL Week Seven: The Comeback?

After a monumental 14-0 record in week five, I came back by missing five games before the 3:15 p.m. CDT games even kicked off. Here at The Sandlot, that's just unacceptable. Let's see if the ever-unpredictable NFL decides to realign itself with universal laws of cause and effect.

San Diego at Kansas City
Up-and-coming QB, dominating defense, NFL's best player at RB, meet...the Chefs (no, still not a typo).
Chargers 42, Chefs 9

Jacksonville at Houston
Hey, have I already mentioned how Houston should have drafted Reggie Bush? Somewhere in the world, Sam Bowie is breathing a sigh of relief that he is no longer the stupidest first-round pick in professional sports history (selected over Michael Jordan!). By the way, Chris Berman and the rest of America's pronunciation-challenged announcers: It's "JAG-wahrs," NOT "JAG-wires." (I'm not even going to discuss the pretentious faux-British car commercial announcer who says "JAG-you-are." Ugh!)
JAG-wahrs 31, "Didn't draft Reggie Bush"es, 13

Carolina at Cincinnati
As much as I criticize the Eastcoast Sports Promotion Network for their s0-laughably-obvious-it's-pointless-to-deny East Coast bias in baseball, they also know their stuff rock solid in football (which is less subject to regional bias because of the NFL's competitive balance). The point was made that Cincy's O-line is beat up, which allows defenses to shut down Rudy Johnson in the running game and get pressure on Carson Palmer to disrupt their passing game. They also pointed out the Carolina often starts slow and comes on strong later. In the battle of the big cats, I'll take blue over orange.
Panthers 27, Bengals 17

Detroit at New York Jets
Man, I feel sorry for the regional TV audiences who get stuck watching this dead dog of a game.
Jets 21, Lions 17

Green Bay at Miami
ESPN's "Sports Guy" Bill Simmons writes, "If Brett Favre can't cover a five-point spread against a 1-5 team with Joey Harrington at QB, he needs to retire immediately. And I mean, immediately. Within 10 seconds of the final whistle." I couldn't agree more.
Packers 24, Dolphins 10

New England at Buffalo
Buffalo always does the opposite of what I think they will do, so if I predict them to lose a game they should lose, they usually win. But since I think this is an upset special for Buffalo, then I should pick them to lose. But if I think they will lose, does this mean they will win? I freaking HATE Buffalo for picking purposes!
Patriots 23, Bills 16

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay
I'm just not picking a 1-4 team with an unknown QB to beat the Eagles, who are coming off a tough road loss. If I'm wrong, so be it, but I'm sticking with Philly until they give me another reason not to.
Eagles 17, Bucs 13

Pittsburgh at Atlanta
Since no one can run effectively on Pittsburgh's defense, and Atlanta can't do anything offensively other than run, I'm taking the team that's rising upward over the one who's falling back to the pack.
Steelers 23, Falcons 16

Denver at Cleveland
Denver's winning again because they're letting their defense dominate while keeping it simple on offense so Plummer's not put in the position to make his characteristic killer mistakes. This formula will continue to work against a terminally mediocre team like Cleveland.
Broncos 24, Browns 6

Arizona at Oakland
Denny Green's probably threatened to kill and eat raw the entire team if they lose this game. Expect Matt Leinart to have a huge day against the putrid Oakland secondary.
Deadbirds 31, Dead Pirates 21

Minnesota at Seattle
No, I'm not picking against Hasselbeck at home. It doesn't even matter how well the Vikings' defense plays, because this team is incapable of scoring offensive touchdowns. I like Brad Johnson as a backup, but he's not taking this team anywhere except next year's draft.
Seahawks 28, Vikings 9

Washington at Indianapolis
Peyton Manning, haters. Washington is starting TWO backups at cornerback. That ought to be good for at least 4-5 TD passes.
Colts 41, Redskins 17

New York Giants at Dallas
I don't even know what to make of this one. Heads, Dallas; Tails, Giants. (flipping coin) Okay, it was tails.
Giants 24, Dallas 21

My Game Seven Prediction (postgame update)

Sometimes I love it when I'm wrong. The icing on the cake is that the Fox Sports brass is already bemoaning their deflated WS ratings while the "experts" at the Eastcoast Sports Promotion Network are still trying to figure out how Suppan and Weaver beat their beloved Mets.

GO CARDINALS!

Mets. (wrong!)

Why?

If you've learned anything from my blog, it's this:

My team always loses. (except for tonight!)

Go Detroit! (Go down in flames!)

NFL Week Six Picks (and what we learned)

Houston at Dallas
This ought to put off the “yank Drew Bledsoe” chatter off of sports radio for at least another week. Houston is just a terrible team.
Cowboys 33, Texans 9
Cowboys 34, Texans 6--we learned that Dallas can beat up a bad team.

Philadelphia at New Orleans
I expect the Saints to play another tough game at home, but Philly’s just got too much on both sides of the ball.
Eagles 27, Saints 17
Saints 27, Eagles 24--we learned that the Saints are for real, and that Philly doesn't have enough playmakers to be a championship team.

Seattle at St. Louis
No Shawn Alexander? Look for a steady diet of blitzes on Matt Hasselbeck, as well as a good day for Marc Bulger and the Rams receivers at home. If Scott Linehan can figure out how to consistently get the ball into the end zone, watch out for the Rams to start scoring lots of points.
Rams 24, Seahawks 20
Seahawks 30, Rams 28--we learned that Josh Brown could probably kick a 65-yard FG indoors, that Matt Hasselbeck doesn't need a running game, that the Rams pass defense sucks and that the Rams are still second-class citizens in the NFL for right now.

New York Giants at Atlanta
I like Vick and Dunn at home better than Eli and Tiki on the road, but I’m not real confident about the pick. This game could easily go either way.
Falcons 20, Giants 17
Giants 27, Atlanta 14--we learned how to stop Atlanta's running game and that Eli's going to be an elite QB very soon.

Tennessee at Washington
Jeff Fisher deserves a better team than the one he has; Joe Gibbs should have done a lot more with the team he has.
Redskins 30, Titans 14
Titans 25, Redskins 22--we learned that Jeff Fisher is a better coach than Joe Gibbs, and maybe the Titans weren't wrong to draft Vince Young.

Buffalo at Detroit
I should pick Buffalo, but the Bills never do what I pick, so I’m going to hope the Lions finally get it together on both sides of the ball this week (but don’t count on it).
Lions 27, Bills 24
Lions 20, Bills 17--we learned that I can pick a correct point spread from time to time.

Carolina at Baltimore
Both teams have good defenses, and Baltimore’s is probably a bit better, but Carolina’s offense is miles better than the Ravens, so I’m going blue over black-and-blue.
Panthers 17, Ravens 10
Panthers 23, Ravens 21--we learned that maybe Kyle Boller wasn't the problem with the Baltimore offense, and that Carolina's the most dangerous team in the NFC.

Cincinnati at Tampa Bay
I look for Cincy to bounce back big after a tough loss and a bye week to put together a game plan.
Bengals 31, Bucs 20
Bucs 14, Bengals 13--We learned that Cincy was overrated from the start this year, and maybe Carson Palmer came back too soon from his knee injury.

San Diego at San Francisco
Well, this doesn’t hardly seem fair, now, does it?
Chargers 38, 49ers 7
Chargers 48, 49ers 19--we learned that Phillip Rivers is a potential star, and SD is the one team no one wants to play.

Kansas City at Pittsburgh
I don’t like KC on the road with a backup QB against a defending championship team that will be nothing short of desperate for a win this week.
Steelers 23, Chiefs 13
Steelers 45, Chefs 7 (not a typo!)--we learned that Big Ben's not dead yet.

Miami at New York Jets
Man, do I feel stupid for picking Miami to win the AFC East. I’m not sure they can win four games this season.
Jets 28, Dolphins 6
Jets 20, Dolphins 17--we learned that the Jets suck only slightly less than Miami.

Oakland at Denver
All the pejoratives have been exhausted to describe this putrid Raiders team.
Broncos 27, Raiders 3
Broncos 13, Raiders 3--we learned that the Broncos don't have enough offense to go to the Superbowl this year, regardless of how well their defense plays.

Chicago at Arizona
Oh, the cruelties of the NFL scheduling system…
Bears 49, Cardinals 0
Bears 24, Cardinals 23--we learned to stop comparing this Bears team to 1985, and we were reminded that Bill Bidwell's Deadbirds will always find a way to lose. They don't just need change of ownership; they need an exorcism.

This week: 8-5
Last week: 14-0
Season: 64-23 (.736)

NFL Week Five Picks: Home Cookin'

Almost nothing but home teams on my pick list except for the two Missouri teams, both of whom are playing bad 1-3 teams on the road. I went with a bunch of road winners in week one, so maybe this set will do as well. Frankly, it's hard to pick against the home teams this week due to the matchups. On with the picks...

St. Louis at Green Bay
I went back and forth on this one. If the Rams offense reverts back to form and Favre has a big day against the Rams' secondary, the Pack could take this one. On the other hand, Favre is hurt, his O-line stinks, and their defense is really, really bad. I think either way you look at it, the odds are in St. Louis' favor. Hopefully last week's scoring binge blew the cobwebs out of the passing game. Note to Jim Haslett: Blitz early, blitz often.
Rams 29, Packers 17

Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Even with an expected loss at Carolina, the Saints didn't show as much of a letdown as most people expected, and if a couple of breaks go their way, they beat Carolina and sit at 4-0. As it stands, they should be able to beat a Tampa team with no proven QB and the rest of its parts in disarray.
Saints 24, Bucs 10

Tennessee at Indianapolis
The only thing of interest in this game is the over-under on Colts points.
Colts 42, Titans 6

Detroit at Minnesota
Another game I can't decide without the flip of a coin. The Vikings offense has been nonexistent so far, but their defense has been solid, so I think they'll run on the Lions' D, control the clock and grind out another low-scoring win. I like Brad Johnson, but he's got to lead this team into the end zone if they want to be relevant this year.
Vikings 17, Lions 13

Buffalo at Chicago
They should institute a mercy-rule clause for this one.
Bears 38, Bills 0

Washington at New York Giants
Brunell and Portis looked good last week beating Jacksonville, but I'm also beginning to wonder if Jax's first few games weren't an aberration caused by the fact that offenses usually start much slower in the early weeks of the season. I think Coughlin, Eli and Tiki all right the Giants' ship this week with a tough victory in a close game.
Giants 27, Redskins 24

Cleveland at Carolina
How come Carolina gets to play a schedule that looks like the first few weeks of the D-1 college football schedule? How about some freakin' competition already? Cleveland! Sheesh!
Panthers 31, Browns 13

Miami at New England
This game is simply cruel and unfair. Oh, well.
Patriots 35, Dolphins 3

Oakland at San Francisco
The Niners looked really bad on the road against the Chiefs, but the Chiefs were coming off a bye week and still pissed about the Cincy game. Frisco's played pretty good at home, and the Raiders are on the verge of total disintegration.
49ers 37, Raiders 14

Kansas City at Arizona
Matt Leinert will get his first start at the Pink Taco, but Herm Edwards should have the KC defense thirsty for rookie blood. As long as they can tackle Edge James, they should be able to bust through that terrible Arizona O-line and make Matt's day just miserable. Damon Huard looked more than competent as Trent Green's placeholder last week.
Chiefs 30, Cardinals 16

New York Jets at Jacksonville
The Jags have one more game--this one--to prove to me I wasn't right about them in the first place with my preseason preview. I don't believe they'll lose a third straight, though, any more than I believe the Jets can have two quality road games in a row. I'm not confident about this pick, but I'm less confident in the Jets' ability to win in the Jags' house.
Jaguars 23, Jets 19

Dallas at Philadelphia
This is such a grudge match, it feels like it should be on Pay-Per-View. I don't think the real story here is T.O. I think it's about how an aggressive Philly defense will be able to stop the Dallas run and pressure immobile Dallas QB Drew Bledsoe into taking costly sacks and making ill-advised passes that get picked off. This will be a low-scoring defensive struggle that will ultimately come down to turnovers, and I see Philly on the plus side.
Eagles 24, Cowboys 20

Pittsburgh at San Diego
Pittsburgh is coming off a bye week, which should be good for Big Ben at QB, but they're playing in San Diego, who should be doubly-motivated after a stupid, unnecessary loss last week against the Ravens. Look for another low-scoring defensive gem, but the Chargers just have more offensive weapons at this point--as long as Rivers doesn't throw untimely picks again.
Chargers 20, Steelers 13

Baltimore at Denver
I still don't think Baltimore is for real, but they get their chance to prove it at Mile High this Monday night. If Shanahan could figure out the N.E. defense, I think he can beat these guys, too.
Broncos 20, Ravens 13

Last week: 9-5
Season 42-18 (.700)

NFL, end of First Quarter

Lots of people like to do power polls for the NFL. Why bother? What matters is the standings and who gets into the playoffs. After the first four weeks, here's what we have to work with:

NFC
1) Chicago Bears (4-0, lead North)
2) Seattle Seahawks (3-1, lead West)
3) New Orleans Saints (3-1, lead South)
4) Philadelphia Eagles (3-1, lead East)
5) Atlanta Falcons (3-1, 2nd in South)
6) St. Louis Rams (3-1, 2nd in West)

The Bears are the overwhelming favorite to secure home field advantage, and in a few weeks, people will start comparing them (wrongly) to the 1985 team (the best football team ever in the history of the NFL, and we will NOT discuss it) and start asking the inevitable 1972 Dolphins question. Seattle will need to show that they can win on the road without Shawn Alexander. The Saints will fall back behind Carolina (who's getting healthy) and Atlanta. The Eagles can consolidate power in the East by beating the now doubly-hated Cowboys (as if they needed further reason to hate anything in Philly). The Falcons will compete with Carolina for the South title. The Rams have to prove that they can win on the road and that their offense can produce like it did against a bad Lions defense when it faces better competition. Right now, I can only designate Chicago and Seattle as sure-fire playoff locks; Philly and Atlanta look good; I don't see New Orleans or St. Louis staying in playoff contention.

AFC
1) Indianapolis Colts (4-0, leading South)
2) Baltimore Ravens (4-0, leading North)
3) New England Patriots (3-1, leading East)
4) Denver Broncos (2-1, leading West)
5) Cincinnati Bengals (3-1, 2nd in North)
6) San Diego Chargers (2-1, 2nd in West)

Indy's a lead-pipe cinch to clinch home-field advantage for the entire playoffs; I don't see them losing more than 2 or 3 games all season. They have already shown a toughness and resiliency in the past two weeks that we haven't seen in the past. The Ravens can't be for real, can they? Sure, their defense is great again, but can they really limit opponents to less than 16 points each week? I'm still not convinced. New England is Jason Voorhees, Mike Myers and Freddy Kruger all rolled up in one. Just when you think they're dead, they jump back up and kill you. They'll win that crummy division because of the crummy competition. The Broncos won't win more than 9 games with Plummer at QB, so they'll fall back. Cincy got cocky and got knocked in the dirt against N.E.; we'll see if it helps them grow up or throw up. I still think the Chargers will win the West. All six teams have a legit shot to make the playoffs, with Indy and N.E. locks, Cincy and S.D. better than 75% chance, Baltimore and Denver less than 50% chance. We'll take another look at the state of the league after halftime--week 8.

Cards-Padres, game one review

Message to the Eastcoast Sports Promotion Network:

CHRIS CARPENTER! What, sucker?!

ALBERT PUJOLS, beeyotch!!!

Eat it, you Connecticut wussies!

MLB Division Series Preview

American League
Detroit at New York Yankees
Jim Leyland should get manager of the decade for the job he’s done with this previously moribund franchise, but they’ve been running on fumes for more than a month now. It took everything they had just to hold on to their playoff spot, and they ended up dropping the division title in the end. Detroit has youth and talent, but the Yankees have veteran experience, and that counts for so much more in the playoffs than the regular season.
Yankees in four games

Oakland at Minnesota
I know Minnesota’s got Johann Santana and have been on an epic tear, but I have to think that Oakland has been lurking under the radar and will give the Twins more than they can handle. However, I have to stop short of picking the A’s to win the series because of Santana and the Twins’ pernicious (and stupid) home field advantage. I hate the freaking Metrodome as both a Vikings fan (1998 NFC Championship) and a Twins hater (1987 World Series).
Twins in five games

National League
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
I like the Dodgers in this series because the Mets remind me of the Cardinals of the past two years—clinched early, didn’t do much the last few weeks, short on starting pitching and relying on hitters who may or may not come through. I like the Dodgers’ pitching much better, and I like their veteran leadership better than the Mets youngsters.
Dodgers in four games

St. Louis at San Diego
Okay, so the Cardinals squeaked in; at least they got in. But it would be foolish to think they are going to get on a roll now when they haven’t been on any sort of roll since before the All-Star break. Can the Cards steal this series? It is possible, but only if Chris Carpenter wins both his starts and Albert hits like Babe Ruth while getting some timely support from Edmonds and Rolen. The Cardinals have had good luck against San Diego in past playoffs, but I can’t believe that the Birds have anything to offer after the last horrendous month. On the other hand, since the “experts” at the Eastcoast Sports Promotion Network don’t even think the Cardinals deserve to be here, there’s nothing I’d like to see more than a Redbird upset…but I’m not predicting it here.
Padres in four games

NFL Week Four Picks

Friends, today is my 11th wedding anniversary, so it's just "quick picks" this week.

KC over SF
Larry Johnson and the KC home field advantage too much for young but promising Niners.

Houston over Miami
Anyone else want to pick Daunte Culpepper on the road? Me neither, even at the city that didn't pick Reggie Bush.

Dallas over Tennessee
T.O. circus or not, the Cowboys are just better than the Titans.

Indy over NY Jets
All the haters want to talk about is how "Jax punched Indy in the mouth." Yeah, but who won the game, haters? Who was the last man standing, haters? Peyton Manning, haters.

Minnesota over Buffalo
Simple math: the Vikings are better than the Jets, and the Jets beat Buffalo in their place.

San Diego over Baltimore
In a matchup of tough defenses, San Diego's offense is vastly superior.

Carolina over New Orleans
Carolina's getting back on track, and N.O.'s due for a big emotional letdown after their great performance Monday night.

Atlanta over Arizona
Kurt Warner's last stand.

St. Louis over Detroit
Because I'm a homer--sue me.

Cleveland over Oakland
Because Oakland's going 0-16 this season.

Jacksonville over Washington
The Jags will take out some of their Colts-inspired anger management issues out on the Skins this week.

Cincinnati over New England
Old boss, meet the new boss.

Seattle over Chicago
I'm picking the champs until somebody beats them. Plus, Seattle's much better than Minnesota, who almost (and should have) beat the Bears last week.

Philly over Green Bay
Despite my preseason picks, I like Philly to win the NFC East.

Last week: 8-6
Season: 33-13

Expiration Date: Ten Years

The Cardinals' end-of-the-year collapse is, in the long run, irrelevant. This is a team that has only one legitimate major-league caliber starter (Chris Carpenter) and only one hitting threat (Albert Pujols). Other than Scott Rolen, who looks exhausted both offensively and defensively, the team is staffed by bench players and third-tier free agents for position players and a bullpen better suited for Memphis or Springfield.

The reason the Cardinals have stayed in first place for so long has more to do with the mediocrity of the other teams in the division than with anything the Cardinals have accomplished. They are a .500 team, and they are lucky to have won as many as they have. Even if they hold off the Astros and squeak into the playoffs, there should be no reasonable expectation of their escaping the first round of play.

What this season really indicates is the end of Tony LaRussa’s term as Cardinals manager, and there’s no reason to blame him, or the players, or the management, or even the owners. It’s simply part of the natural cycle of managers in Major League Baseball.

Most Cardinals fans think of the Whitey Herzog era as the golden age of modern Cardinals baseball, and in a way, it certainly was. Herzog was the last manager to win the World Series (1982), and he won two other NL Pennants (’85 and ’87).

But Herzog also underachieved in the two World Series he lost, mismanaging his pitching staff (a common LaRussa criticism) and allowing his offense to crumble under pressure. At the end of Whitey’s term, his team simply quit playing for him. Whitey managed the Cardinals for 10 years.

The legendary Red Schoendienst, who managed during Bob Gibson’s best years and won the WS in ’67 and the NL in ’68 also managed for 10 years before stepping down. Joe Torre only lasted five years, but he was dealing with the end of the brewery ownership and the inept GM skills of Dal Maxvill.

LaRussa is finishing up his tenth year, and it’s clear that the best thing for everyone concerned—fans, players, coaches, management and ownership—is an amicable, “it was wonderful while it lasted” divorce. There’s no need to feel traumatized; it’s simply part of the natural order of things. It’s time for all of us to move on. This epic collapse is simply bringing that fact to an undeniable recognition.

LaRussa, should he choose to continue his career, will certainly have another successful run. And if history is any indication, the Cardinals should be rejuvenated under a new skipper. There will be many names brought to bear, but let me mention Jose Oquendo and submit that he may again be the Cardinals’ “secret weapon” to bring glory back to Cardinal Nation.

NFL Week Three Picks--oh, the humanity!

Strange to say, but only three weeks into the NFL season, we have already come to the point where half the games could possibly define the fate of individual teams and the course of the season as a whole. Why? Because some teams are an unexpected 2-0 and could assert dominance in their divisions, while other 0-2 teams risk watching their playoff hopes fall away before we’ve reached the first quarter post.

Having said all this, the matchups this week are an absolute picker’s nightmare. I’m standing at 25-7 for the season, but I can see myself picking 4-10 this week. I’m so glad I’m not a gambler; this week just smells like an “I’ve got to start working weekends at Wal-Mart” experience.

Carolina at Tampa Bay
Steve Smith returns like a superhero to save Carolina’s season and wreck what’s left of Tampa’s. The question from here on out is, “What does Jon Gruden do with Chris Sims?” How long will it be until Tampa’s offense scores a touchdown? What’s the NFL record?
Panthers 27, Bucs 9
Just how bad is Carolina? Yeah, I know they won, but just barely, on the foot of clutch kicker Jon Casey. Maybe you have to give Gruden credit for getting his team back in, but Carolina sure doesn't look like NFC champs by any stretch of the imagination.
Panthers 26, Bucs 24

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
It all comes down to this for me: Cincy believes that if Carson Palmer hadn’t been injured against the Steelers, they would have been the ones going to Detroit. This is, plain and simple, a revenge game where the Bengals show they are the alpha dog in the AFC North.
Bengals 24, Steelers 17
I'm gonna have to get Dish Network, I guess. My local CBS station was carrying the atrocious Tennessee-Miami game instead of this one. Guh! The Steelers path to the playoffs just got harder; now they have to win in Cincinnati just to even the series.
Bengals 28, Steelers 20

Green Bay at Detroit
This should be the week Mike Martz takes his offense off of the city streets and onto the Interstate; Favre may still have another good week, but Green Bay doesn’t have any defense, especially a secondary. Fantasy geeks who took Jon Kitna should feel good this week.
Lions 27, Packers 13
Note to self: STOP PICKING THE LIONS TO WIN--EVER!!!
Packers 31, Lions 24

Tennessee at Miami
I’ll take Miami this week in spite of Culpepper just because Tennessee is such a mess right now. I agree with Jeff Fisher taking it slow with Vince Young; losing is losing—there’s no point in killing your rookie QB when it won’t make any difference.
Dolphins 17, Titans 6
Yikes, Miami is a really bad football team. I thought Saban would have a better team than this. Yuck.
Dolphins 13, Titans 10

Jacksonville at Indianapolis
The Colts had trouble with the Jags last year, when Indy was clearly the better team. Now, Indy’s taken a step back in the running game with the loss of Edge James, and their defense is suffering key injuries. In the meantime, Jax has built the most intimidating defense in the league. My gut feeling says Indy simply cannot win this game.
Jaguars 21, Colts 17
Boy, Indy really showed me something last week by withstanding an early barrage of absolute dominance by the Jags without falling apart. Peyton looked like a warrior in the second half, and even though it won't silence the haters (who simply live to hate because Peyton's not on their team), the Colts asserted themselves as the favorites again in the AFC.
Colts 21, Jags 14

NY Jets at Buffalo
Buffalo’s defense is the exact opposite of the Rams’ offense: it’s much better than I thought it would be, and until they show me something different, all things being equal, I’m sticking with them, especially at home against the Jets.
Bills 17, Jets 13
Oh crap, I forgot about Buffalo's offense! And so did they!
Jets 28, Bills 20

Washington at Houston
The question to be asked at each and every Texans game for the rest of season is, obviously, “Why didn’t you idiots take Reggie Bush?” If they had Reggie, people would consider that they at least had a fighting chance every game. As it is, does anyone think to themselves, “Well, the Texans have Mario Williams, and he ought to be able to stop Portis and Brunell!” Yeah, me neither.
Redskins 23, Texans 14
Even though Houston's baseball team is going to steal the NL Central away from the Cardinals here in the last week, I can take solace in two facts: 1) the worst president in the history of the U.S. claims your smog-ridden hellhole as home; 2) Reggie Bush! Reggie Bush! Reggie Bush! Reggie Bush! Reggie FREAKIN' BUSH!!!!!
Skins 31, Mario Williams 15

Chicago at Minnesota
Probably the most intriguing matchup of 2-0 teams because those of us who are fans (Vikings and Bears both) want to know if our team is for real. For the Bears, they need to find out if Rex Grossman’s the real deal; for the Vikes, we just need to know if the first two games were just a fluke. As much as it pains me to pick against the Purple, especially at the Dome, I just can’t see the Bears defense giving up more points to Brad Johnson and Chester Taylor than Grossman and company is going to score on the Vikes’ D. I think it’s close, but I don’t think the Purple has as much talent yet as the Black and Blue.
Bears 27, Vikings 20
The Vikings are for real, I think, but they also have a low-octane ball-control offense that leaves them absolutely no margin for error. If this team turns the ball over--like they did Sunday--then they'll lose close games. They need to shake off this game and focus on next week. I really like Brad Childress--he's right out of the no-nonsense Bud Grant mode this team needs.
Bears 19, Vikings 16

Baltimore at Cleveland
Baltimore is really benefiting early in the season from a relatively easy schedule. The real test for them—and more to the point, their offense—will come against Cincy and Pitt. But until then, they can run up their record on also-rans such as the Browns.
Ravens 21, Browns 10
What the heck? You mean Steve McNair's 57 years old? The Ravens won't be able to beat a team with a decent offense.
Ravens 15, Browns 14

Philadelphia at San Francisco
I think the Eagles are going to bounce back after last week’s choke against the Giants, and I think the Niners will be overconfident about beating the Rams’ hapless offensive (non)attack. This one won’t really be close.
Eagles 31, 49ers 14
Philly better work on closing out games, even with a big lead.
Eagles 38, Niners 24

NY Giants at Seattle
I wouldn’t count on the Giants come-from-behind win as a sign of things to come. Seattle, who simply doesn’t lose at home, is going to bring them back down to earth. In a weakened conference, all Seattle needs to do is win enough games to clinch home field, and it should be another trip to the NFC Championship.
Seahawks 23, Giants 16
Seattle looked invincible last week, but then Shawn Alexander came up with a broken bone in his foot. If teams can shut down the run now, will Hasselbeck still be able to pick apart secondaries like he did Sunday? This weeks showdown in Chicago will be very telling. Oh, and someone tell Eli Manning that the first three quarters count, too.
Seahawks 42, Giants 30

St. Louis at Arizona
I said it last week: until the Rams offense comes to life, I’m just not going to pick them on the road against a team that can score, and the Cardinals should score more than enough to beat the Rams, who simply aren’t capable of scoring more than 17 points. Look for Kurt Warner to have a huge day against his old mates.
Cardinals 31, Rams 13
I hate to say it, but Warner looks just done. Hey, it happens. He had a storybook run in St. Louis, but Matt Leinert's gonna be starting this season, sooner or later. The Cardinals choked this one up just as if they had never left St. Louis. Oh, and I still loathe Marc Bulger.
Rams 16, Cardinals 14

Denver at New England
It seems apparent at this point that Jake Plummer sold his soul to the devil last year, only to see Old Scratch renege on his deal in favor of Ben Roethlisberger. Satan’s just fickle, I guess, except where the NY Yankees are concerned, of course.
Patriots 38, Broncos 16
I've never been so glad to be wrong. The Patriots' dynasty is over. Oh, they'll still win their division--because it stinks--but they're not getting out of wild card weekend.
Broncos 17, Patriots 7

Atlanta at New Orleans
Sure, N.O. is the sentimental favorite, what with all the Katrina recovery hoopla, but Atlanta’s one of the top three teams in the NFC right now, and all the Reggie Bush magic in the world is not going to be able to stop the Falcons’ running attack. It ought to be an emotional MNF broadcast, though, and worth tuning in to.
Falcons 30, New Orleans 17
So, was this the emotion of the moment, or is New Orleans really the dominant team in the NFC South? And what happened to Atlanta's offensive attack? The beauty of the NFL is that every week brings new surprises and a host of unanswered questions--it's like "Lost" as a reality series.
Saints 23, Falcons 3

Last Week: 12-4
Season: 25-7

NFL Week Two Picks—updated with comments

Well, I started off the season pretty good last week at 13-3, though if I had gone with common sense and picked Pittsburgh and Jacksonville at home, it would have been 15-1. Sometimes you can just think these things through too much. Let's see how Week Two goes...

Carolina at Minnesota
It's clear what Brad Childress is trying to do—he's turning the Vikings into an NFC East team: determined running game that grinds you for four quarters, a possession-smart QB who doesn't make mistakes and a blitzing defense that keeps constant pressure on the opposition. On the flip side, Carolina has too many injuries to win in a Metrodome that should be completely geeked out to have something good to cheer about on the field again.
Vikings 24, Carolina 13
Give lots of credit to that Carolina defense, but the Vikings find a way to get it done at home. Next week's battle with Chicago is actually meaningful!
Vikings 16, Panthers 13 (OT)

Detroit at Chicago
I'm so encouraged to see Detroit players making promises they can't keep when they're only 0-1. This one's gonna get U-G-L-Y. Urlacher might actually decapitate Jon Kitna. Seriously.
Bears 31, Lions 3
Well, I was really close to calling this one on the money, wasn't I?
Bears 34, Lions 7

Houston at Indianapolis
So, let me get this straight. Houston execs say they drafted Mario Williams because it was more important to stop Peyton Manning than to score points? Suddenly the whole "George W. Bush, native of Houston, Texas" makes perfect sense.
Colts 41, Texans 10
This game was over at halftime; CBS cut away coverage in the second quarter when it was 27-3. The only reason Houston scored 24 is that Indy put their cheerleaders in on defense in the fourth quarter.
Colts 43, Texans 24

New Orleans at Green Bay
I'm so old, I remember when Green Bay was the joke of the league, just an awful team that had fond memories of the glorious championship days of the past. Hey, it turns out history does repeat itself, doesn't it?
Saints 24, Packers 14
Reports of the death of Brett Favre have been greatly exaggerated. Reports of the nonexistence of the Packers' defense, however, have not. It's hard to win when you can't stop the other team from scoring.
Saints 34, Packers 27

New York Giants at Philadelphia
Yeah, the Giants looked good at home against Indy, even though they lost, and Philly did play at Houston, but my gut tells me not to pick against Philly at home right now. Any of my readers with gambling problems, however, should avoid this game like the plague.
Eagles 24, Giants 21
The Eagles should be kicking each other in the butt tonight after pissing away a 17 point lead in the fourth quarter at home. Give the Giants credit for coming back, and Eli had a HUGE day, but this collapse was just inexplicable for an Andy Reid defense. Eagles fans: I suggest Jack Daniel's with dinner tonight.
Giants 30, Eagles 24 (OT)

Oakland at Baltimore
To all of my readers with gambling problems: This is your sure thing. (I am NOT advising anyone to gamble, of course, and you should keep in mind my frequent and persistant incorrectness.)
Ravens 48, Raiders 0
Okay, so it wasn't that bad, but Oakland is easily the worst team in the NFL.
Ravens 28, Raiders 6

Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Turns out the heavy traffic in western Florida was me and all the other jumping off the TAMPA bandwagon. Go figure. Betcha wish you had gone ahead and taken Mike Vick when you had the chance to draft him in your fantasy league. Sucker!
Falcons 27, Bucanneers 17
I can't believe I predicted that Tampa would score two touchdowns. So what does Chucky do now, hit the "eject" button on Chris Simms? Did anyone think Tampa would really be this bad? BTW, Vick ran for more than 120 yards, fantasy geeks!
Falcons 14, Bucs 3

Cleveland at Cincinnati
Well, look at it this way...Bill Belicheck will probably give Romeo Crennel his old job back next year.
Bengals 38, Browns 9
So, how many Bengals fans are checking expedia.com for Miami area hotel reservations in early February, hmm?
Bengals 34, Browns 17

Buffalo at Miami
Okay, so Nick Saban's had almost two weeks to plan for his home opener after Culpepper spit up that game against Pittsburgh, and Buffalo just came off a gut-punch loss in an effort to upset the Pats? I smell rout.
Dolphins 35, Bills 13
Okay, the next time I pick Miami to win this year, someone send me an e-mail with these two words: "Daunte Culpepper." Thanks, I appreciate that. Could Buffalo be this year's surprise worst-to-first team? Not in their division, but they are no pushovers, that's for sure. Let's see what happens now that teams start taking them seriously.
Bills 16, Dolphins 6

Arizona at Seattle
I can't do it. I just can't. I'm sorry Kurt, you're my guy, and I'm pulling for you, but you're just not the Vikings or the Rams. No sucker picks for the Cardinals—I wasted too many years as a kid with your team for that.
Seahawks 24, Cardinals 17
This was about what I expected.
Seahawks 21, Cardinals 10

St. Louis at San Francisco
I kept hearing this line in my head last week after the Rams' stellar effort on defense. I can't quote it directly because my mom reads this, but it's in the third act of "Pulp Fiction" after Jules and Vincent clean up the car, and they, along with Jimmy and The Wolf are admiring their handiwork. They're all very excited until The Wolf reminds them, "Let's not start [kissing] each other's [mouths] just yet, gentlemen." I want to see the Rams beat the Niners on the road, especially since they didn't look that bad against Arizona last week. Expect the Rams offense to find their groove this week.
Rams 31, 49ers 13
Let's see, what did we have in this game? A crushing mistake on special teams coverage, wide open opposing receivers running untouched in a clueless Rams secondary, gaping running holes in the defensive line, crappy tackling, no pass rush, spotty play by a makeshift offensive line, inexplicable play calling, infuriatingly stupid penalties and a quarterback who acts like he just joined the club and met his teammates about an hour before gametime. Does that sound about right? It sure sounds like the Rams to me. This was a winnable game, even up until the end, but I don't have any faith whatsoever in Marc Bulger. As a matter of fact, I despise him. The good news is that as long as he can't execute Scott Linehan's offense (which is a good one—it worked great in Minnesota and Miami), this is probably his last year with the Rams. Until this offense gets going—and I have to see it before I'll predict it—I'm considering the Rams underdogs for the rest of the season.
49ers 20, Rams 13

Tennessee at San Diego
Do you think Jeff Fisher actually updates his resume on the sideline in between plays? I mean, because there's no way he can survive this disaster, right? Fisher's great, but he's just screwed with this team. They don't have any offense whatsoever. He might as well play Vince all the time. Hell, institute the option wishbone—it couldn't be any worse. Oh, and it's now about 16-17 weeks until Marty's annual playoff C-H-O-K-E.
Chargers 35, Titans 6
Don't get excited, guys...it's still Marty Schottenheimer, okay?
Chargers 40, Titans 7

Kansas City at Denver
Who's Damon Huard?
Broncos 38, Chiefs 16
Good grief, Jake Plummer has got to be sweating more than Albert Brooks in the anchor chair in "Broadcast News" about now. If I'm Jason Elam, I'm going to dinner tonight with Plummer's AmEx card. Oh, and Kansas City deserves Herm Edwards for the whole 1985 thing. No, I'm not going to get over it.
Broncos 9, Chiefs 6

New England at New York Jets
This is one of those games that I can think myself into circles over. See, Jets coach Eric Mangini was the Pats D-coord for Belicheck, so he knows the defense and knows how to attack it. But Belicheck knows what Mangini knows and that he knows it, so he's likely to do something different. Oh, screw it. Do I think the Jets will beat the Pats? Not bloody likely.
Patriots 23, Jets 17
It looked like the Pats were going to run away with this one, but the Jets made it a bit more interesting at the end. NE's 2-0, and probably 3-0 after getting Denver next week, but I'm certainly not afraid to play them if I'm one of the legit contenders in the AFC (Indy, Cincy, Pitt, Jax, SD).
Patriots 24, Jets 17 (oh, so close to perfect!)

Washington at Dallas
There's just no way on earth that Parcells is going to lose this game. Bledsoe's going to be on a shorter leash than a rabid pit bull. With no Clinton Portis, the 'Skins are bringing a knife to a gunfight.
Cowboys 30, Redskins 20
It should be clear to everyone by now that the NFC East was vastly overrated by most folks in the preseason. I think ten wins probably takes the division, and it looks like the Giants are the early favorite. Washington doesn't even look like an 8-8 team at this point, and Dallas is just average.
Cowboys 27, Redskins 10

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
I'm just not going to pick against the Pittsburgh defense until I see someone with a legitimate chance to beat them. So far, I can't say that about anyone, especially a Jacksonville team that has serious injury problems on defense. It's close, but it's still the champs.
Steelers 24, Jaguars 21
Big Ben probably came back too early, but Chaz Batch wouldn't have beaten that defense last night, anyway. If Jacksonville can get their offense going, they have a legitimate shot at winning the AFC. Jack Del Rio is my early favorite for Coach of the Year.
Jags 9, Steelers 0

This week: 12-4

Last week: 13-3
Season: 13-3

Rams Recap—Week One

I had this nagging sense all week that the Rams would upset the Broncos—I remembered Miami's trouncing of Denver in week one last year—but this game was much more of a nail-biter than it needed to be. All in all, I was happy with the results, and I think there are far more positives than negatives, especially considering they beat a team that finished 13-3 last year and was the runner-up in the powerful AFC.

Defense
The Good
Well, duh! Did anyone believe that with their personnel upgrades and leadership from defensive maniac Jim Haslett that they wouldn't be better? Well, maybe not this much better. I loved their blitz schemes; they never showed the same look twice, and Jake Plummer never knew where the next rusher was coming from. Leonard Little was like Nicholson in "The Shining"--relentless and unstoppable. The secondary made some HUGE picks when they had to, and they did a much better job stopping the run than anyone expected them to against Denver.

The Bad
Too many interference penalties on the secondary, for starters. I hate giving away first downs. They also gave up too many big runs from scrimmage; it's clear they miss having run-stopping strong safety Adam Archuleta as the last-resort in the middle. I'm sure Haslett will address that problem this week. The team was also visibly tired at the end of each half, although the offense was partly to blame for that.

Offense
The Good
They moved the ball up the field well for several drives, even though they did not score a TD. Ball control is the most important factor. Steven Jackson showed how strong a runner he is, moving a whole pile of defenders forward on several runs. The line protected Bulger reasonably well, and the receivers did their usual outstanding job--when they actually had a chance to catch the ball.

The Bad
Lack of red zone TD's was their biggest problem, obviously. Why is this? Lousy timing between Bulger and his receivers, lousy blocking by the o-line inside the ten, unimaginative play-calling by Scott Linehan--pick your poison. The good news? Offenses always look shaky in the first four weeks of the NFL season. It takes time for a precision offense to gel, and it also takes time for an o-line to develop a tough, run-blocking attitude. Look at Notre Dame's first week offense compared to how they played this past weekend against Penn State. I expect the same difference next week from the Rams offense.

Special Teams
The Good
Jeff Wilkins is so money, he knows he's money. Other than Adam Vinitieri (I still can't believe the Pats let him go, and to Indy, no less; watch and see how much they regret that), I wouldn't pick anyone other than Wilkins to kick. As far as kick coverage, they didn't give up the big play, which is all you ask of the coverage units.

The Bad
Other than a holding penalty that negated a good punt return, I have nothing bad to say about special teams, which is reason enough to be grateful that Mike Martz is languishing in the coaches' box in Detroit.

NFL Week One Picks

Bit of honesty to start off with--in my mind, I picked Miami to beat Pittsburgh, so I'm going into Sunday 0-1 for the season. Oh, well. Let's see what this season brings us. I hate picking before week four; you really have no idea what you're going to get until then. I'd probably do just as well by flipping a coin.

NY Jets at Tennessee
Just hope you don't have to watch this game on your local affiliate with nothing else to see. This is easily the worst game of the week, but since someone has to lose...
Jets 17, Titans 6

Philadephia at Houston
Philly's hoping for a comeback year, while Houston's got to prove to their fan base that picking Mario Williams over Reggie Bush wasn't the biggest mistake in NFL Draft history. I like McNabb much better than Carr
Eagles 20, Texans 10

Cincinnati at Kansas City
Cincy--highest powered offense in the league; Marvin Lewis-led defense. KC--oldest offense in the league; bad defense. LJ could run for 200 yards and it's not going to matter.
Bengals 42, Chiefs 17

Denver at St. Louis
I'm just stupid, but I'm going to pick the Rams, and here's why: Denver has a brewing QB controversy, no established running back and inflated expectations of success after last year. No one expects the Rams to do anything, but I've got a gut feeling that Scott Linehan and Jim Haslett were playing possum in the preseason. It will be close, but I'm taking the Rams in an upset. (Oh yeah, and I'm a total St. Louis homer. So sue me.)
Rams 24, Broncos 21

Atlanta at Carolina
Carolina's expectations are so huge, and combined with the absence of Steve Smith and the fact they lost last year's season opener at home to New Orleans, I'm picking the Vick's in a road upset.
Falcons 27, Panthers 23

Baltimore at Tampa Bay
People in the Tampa/St. Petersberg metro area will find it difficult to travel on the roads shortly after the game due to all the people jumping off the Ravens' bandwagon. Don't drive angry!
Bucs 24, Ravens 9

Buffalo at New England
Aww, come on...
Patriots 35, Bills 7

New Orleans at Cleveland
One team has no defense, the other has no offense. I'm picking Drew Brees and Reggie Bush over the Browns' D.
Saints 28, Browns 24

Seattle at Detroit
What makes you think Mike Martz will have any more luck beating Seattle this year than he did last year? Jon Kitna's no Marc Bulger, that's for sure. I also think Seattle's playing all season with a big chip on their shoulder.
Seahawks 31, Lions 17

San Francisco at Arizona
Kool-Aid? Big Red Kool-Aid? It's cheap! It's always been cheap! Have some! It's good!
Cardinals 33, 49ers 13

Chicago at Green Bay
Maybe Brett Favre can con the Packers' ownership into trading him to the Bears right before the game starts, because that would be the only way he wins this Sunday.
Bears 24, Packers 6

Dallas at Jacksonville
Dang it, I just don't like Jacksonville, even at home, especially against this version of Parcell's defense and you-know-who lighting up the Jax secondary. I think the Jags are overrated this year; look how they got exposed by the Pats last year in the playoffs. This one will be fun to watch if you like vicious defenses beating the crap out of each other.
Cowboys 20, Jaguars 14

Indianapolis at NY Giants
Look at it this way--if you really needed to win a game (at least in the regular season), who would you take, Peyton to Marvin Harrison or Eli to Jeremy Shockey? Yeah, me too. Besides, it should be clear that I couldn't be more of an Indy apologist if my last name were "Dungy."
Colts 31, Giants 20

Minnesota at Washington
There's no friggin' way I'm not going to pick the Vikings in the season opener. Cut me; I bleed purple.
Vikings 30, Redskins 24

San Diego at Oakland
Oakland sucks. Eat my shorts, Randy Moss.
Chargers 38, Raiders 7

Check back on Tuesday to see how I did!

NFL 2006 Preview: Playoff Picks

Before I offer my playoff picks, I have to amend my Pittsburgh prediction from earlier in light of last night's game. Charlie Batch won't kill the team before Big Ben returns, and that defense is just nasty-awesome. I'm revising their record to 11-5. I still think Miami wins the AFC East—Culpepper will play better against lesser defenses; they almost won that game last night. Anyhoo, here are my playoff seeds, game matchup predictions and Superbowl pick. And yes, I'll be revising these at midseason when my wrongness is even more apparent. (Shuddup, shuttin'up, you!)

NFC Playoff Seeds
1. Seattle, 14-2 (West)
2. Carolina, 14-2 (South)
3. Dallas, 12-4 (East)
4. Chicago, 9-7 (North)
5. Atlanta, 12-4 (Wild Card)
6. NY Giants, 11-5 (Wild Card)

AFC Playoff Seeds
1. Indianapolis, 14-2 (South)
2. Miami, 13-3 (East)
3. Cincinnati, 12-4 (North)
4. San Diego, 12-4 (West)
5. Pittsburgh, 11-5 (Wild Card)
6. New England, 11-5 (Wild Card)

Wild Card Weekend
NFC
Dallas over NY Giants
Atlanta over Chicago

AFC
Cincinnati over New England
Pittsburgh over San Diego

Divisional Playoffs
NFC
Seattle over Atlanta
Carolina over Dallas

AFC
Indianapolis over Pittsburgh
Cincinnati over Miami

NFC Championship
Seattle over Carolina

AFC Championship
Indianapolis over Cincinnati

Superbowl XLI
Indianapolis over Seattle

Don't like the picks? Hit comments and show me what you got.

NFL 2006 Preview: AFC North and West

We have a Tuck sighting! Off the starboard bow! He's firing with both barrels now! Today's picks should REALLY piss him off big time!

AFC NORTH
1) Cincinnati (12-4)
2) Pittsburgh (9-7)
3) Baltimore (7-9)
4) Cleveland (4-12)

I love the Bengals this year, provided Carson Palmer stays healthy. His knee will make everyone nervous for the first few weeks, but if it holds up, this team will be an offensive powerhouse that should blow most teams right out of the stadium. They will be the most explosive offense since the Vermeil/Martz-era Rams, and you know Marvin Lewis' defense won't stink, either.

Bring on the hate, haters. Pittsburgh is going to have a tough year because of injuries and subtractions. No Bettis, no Heinz Ward (for a while), no Randle-El, no Rothlisburger for the first couple of weeks (at least) spells danger. Have you looked at their schedule? Miami, at Jacksonville, Cincinnati, at San Diego, Kansas City, at Atlanta. Good God! They could start the season 0-3 and possibly 1-5. I'm being optimistic picking them to finish 9-7.

It seems like there's a lot of folks jumping on the Baltimore bandwagon. Not me. Ray Lewis and Jamal Lewis are both a year older, and anyone who thinks Steve McNair is the savior of this team didn't watch any of Tennessee's games last season. Sure, McNair's tough and competitive, but he's also 68 years old.

Cleveland...who plays for Cleveland? Who's their quarterback? Starting running back? Defensive star? Anyone? Yeah, that's what I thought.

AFC WEST
1) San Diego (12-4)
2) Denver (11-5)
3) Kansas City (8-8)
4) Oakland (4-12)

San Diego finally gets a break in the schedule, which should put them over the top. New QB Phillip Rivers will get help from all-world RB LaDanian Tomlinson. This will give Marty Schottenheimer yet another opportunity to choke in the playoffs.

Denver will be an interesting team to follow just to see how many interceptions Jake Plummer has to throw before Broncos fans start clamoring for impressive rookie Jay Cutler to take over the starting job. I just want to watch Mike Shanahan's head explode like a nuclear device.

Kansas City's going to be mediocre because Trent Green, while a great guy, is too far over the hill to make a difference, and their new head coach, Herm Edwards, has his picture in the dictionary next to the word "mediocre."

Oakland can only aspire to mediocrity. Outlaws and scumbags might have worked for Al Davis back in the days before the salary cap, but these days the NFL is all about not making mental mistakes like turnovers and stupid penalties. Guess which team has led the league in penalties for about the past five years? I hope Randy Moss enjoys watching the Superbowl on television--again!

Tomorrow: Playoff and Superbowl picks

NFL 2006 Preview: AFC East and South

Tonight we move our attention to the AFC, where the likely Superbowl champion will emerge—again. Let's just hope it's not that team in Massachusetts.

AFC EAST
1) Miami (13-3)
2) New England (11-5)
3) New York Jets (7-9)
4) Buffalo Bills (5-11)

Nick Saban did a lot more last year with the Dolphins than anyone thought he would, and that was without a real quarterback. Now he's got Daunte Culpepper, who should have a HUGE chip on his shoulder and something to prove to the rest of the league. Their defense will be nasty and almost impossible to score on. I like this team a lot this year.

New England is getting old, and they may have shot themselves in the foot with this Deion Branch non-signing problem, but as long as the names "Belichick" and "Brady" are on the top of the letterhead, they're a safe bet to win double digits and compete for a playoff spot.

The Jets will improve on defense thanks to Belichick disciple Eric Mangini, their new head coach, but I won't put any faith into Chad Pennington, and he doesn't have many weapons to go to anyway. Buffalo still thinks it's the mid-1990s with Marv Levy running the football operation. Someone explain to me why Buffalo has a team and Los Angeles doesn't?

AFC SOUTH
1) Indianapolis (14-2)
2) Jacksonville (10-6)
3) Houston (6-10)
4) Tennessee (2-14)

Indianapolis won't flirt with perfection—I have them losing early in the season to Denver—but they will continue to focus on home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and this year Dungy and Manning won't let the game get away from them the way they did against Pittsburgh last year. In fact, I see them following the Steelers' gameplan: lose the playoffs as big favorites, learn your lesson, go out and win it all the next year. Oops, I just gave away my playoff predictions, didn't I?

Jacksonville will continue to serve as the bridesmaid in the south, although I see them falling back a bit due to a tougher schedule than last year. Houston will make some progress with new head coach Gary Kubiak, though I think he would have been better served with Reggie Bush. Tennessee will only win two games because it's just as hard to lose them all as it is to win them all. Jeff Fisher's gonna wish he had taken the job in St. Louis instead, Vince Young or not. By the way, he'll be starting by week seven and getting killed every Sunday. Happy trails!

Tomorrow: AFC North and West

NFL Preview 2006: NFC North and West

Continuing with our look at the NFC, we now cover the last two divisions.

NFC NORTH
1) Chicago (9-7)
2) Minnesota (9-7)
3) Detroit (4-12)
4) Green Bay (4-12)

Notice something about those records? It's not an accident; we have two mediocre teams at the top of the division, and two very bad teams at the bottom. Chicago should continue to be tough on defense, but they don't have any offense, and by the time someone figures out that Brian Griese should be the starting quarterback, they'll have five or six losses. Maybe they'll get lucky and Rex Grossman will get hurt early in the season--again.

Minnesota is breaking in a new coach with a 37-year-old quarterback, no number one wide receiver and a running game that is better suited to appear on the side of a milk carton. About the best this team can hope for is to appear on ESPN more often for game highlights rather than the Minneapolis police reports.

Detroit might show flashes of Martz Madness on offense, and new head coach Rod Marinelli is certain to bring a bit more discipline to the team, but with a GM almost as incompetent as Isaiah Thomas in Matt Millen, they just don't have enough talent to compete with anyone else but the other bottom-feeders in the league.

Speaking of bottom-feeders...expect a major league case of buyer's remorse for Brett Favre that he didn't go ahead and retire last year. This is a bad, bad, bad football team.

NFC WEST
1) Seattle (14-2)
2) Arizona (9-7)
3) St. Louis (7-9)
4) San Francisco (3-13)

I know everyone is talking about the curse of the SB loser (hasn't made the playoffs in six years or something like that), but take a look at Seattle's schedule--I picked them to lose twice because no team has gone undefeated since 1972, but they have a legitimate shot to run the whole table. Plus, they should play with a chip on their shoulder because they did get jobbed twice, and big, by the refs last February.

Arizona's a trendy pick for a lot of "experts," and I would love to see Kurt Warner take another team to the promised land, but we have to be realistic: this is still Bill Bidwell's team, and this is probably as good as it gets. They have a tough schedule, especially on the road, and until I see some evidence of an offensive line, I'm not betting any "straight cash, homey" on Warner starting the whole season.

The Rams are the parallel of the Vikings: new coach, suspect quarterback, unproven running game, nonexistent defense, inept special teams. Can Marc Bulger play like a Pro Bowl QB? Can the Steve and Steve show (Jackson and Davis, BTW) gain meaningful yards on the ground? It all depends on an offensive line that has been truly offensive in terms of quality of play for the past three years. Don't get me wrong, I hope the Rams show me something surprising. I have faith that Scott Linehan and Jim Haslett can get things straightened out on both sides of the ball, but I still look at their schedule and don't see any better than .500 in their 2006 future. Better luck next year, guys.

I hate San Francisco. I still remember how cocky and strutting they were back in their glory days. Enjoy the sewer, boys--you deserve it. I hope they go 0-16, but they do have Green Bay and Detroit on their schedule.

Tomorrow: AFC East and South

NFL 2006 Preview: NFC East and South

It's here! It's finally here! The NFL season is less than one week away, and unlike this miserable baseball season, where the Cardinals have been in first place most of the year and still played like losers, I'm going into the NFL season with absolutely no illusions—both of my favorite teams, the Rams and the Vikings, are going to stink like roadkill on a hot August afternoon. But this will not stop me from making my annual preseason predictions, which, like those made by paid "experts" at ESPN, Sports Illustrated, Fox Sports, CBS, etc. all, are almost certain to be wrong. Since when did being wrong ever stop me? I'll do the NFC in two parts first, then two parts for the AFC, then playoff predictions leading up to Thursday night's kickoff. And away we go...

NFC EAST
1) Dallas (12-4)
2) NY Giants (11-5)
3) Washington Redskins (8-8)
4) Philadelphia Eagles (6-10)

I'm picking Dallas for one reason: this is Bill Parcells' third year in Dallas, and he usually takes a team to the Superbowl in his third year. So are they my SB pick? Let's not get ahead of ourselves yet, please. I think Bledsoe's going to have a good year; I think that wide receiver will be a difference maker for their offense, and I think they've got far and away the best defense in the NFC.

This year will be Eli Manning's coming out party, but they have a tough road schedule, and I also have to wonder how much Tiki Barber has left in his tank. Running backs usually from hero to zero in just a few months. Manning's going to have a huge year passing, though, and he'll score enough to balance out a typically tough Tom Coughlin defense keeping games close.

The Redskins have an injured running back, an ancient quarterback and not much else on the defensive side. I just don't think they can score enough points to go better than .500. I'll say the same thing for Philadelphia—other than Donovan McNabb, can you name another offensive starter? Their running back hasn't played in more than two years. They'll give teams defensive trouble, but they'll lose double digits because of their inability to score touchdowns.

NFC SOUTH
1) Carolina (14-2)
2) Atlanta (12-4)
3) Tampa Bay (11-5)
4) New Orleans (4-12)

I hate to pick Carolina because they are the "trendy" SB pick by all the so-called experts, but when you consider their weapons on both sides of the ball with their schedule, I don't see them really losing more than about three games unless they get hit hard with injuries.

This is the year Mike Vick puts it all together and has an MVP-caliber season, along with a powerful running game and an aggressive defense. Atlanta will be the team that nobody else in the league wants to play.

Chris Simms will solidify himself as the starting QB in Tampa, and that defense will be good again, but not really great. I don't think their players are as talented position-for-position as the other teams in the division, but they'll still compete for a playoff spot.

While Drew Brees and Reggie Bush will bring a new level of excitement to a city that needs something to cheer about, but they need a lot more than just two talented stars (a defense would be a good start) to bring a winning record to the Crescent City. Better luck next year, guys.

Tomorrow: NFC North and West

Why Tony LaRussa Should Probably Go

It's not for the reason you think. Yes, the latest multi-game losing streak has been especially humiliating--getting swept by the atrocious Cubs, then losing two ignominious games against an equally atrocious Phillies team (and at home, no less). But LaRussa can't do any more than he is already doing with the talent (or lack thereof) on this year's team, and that falls directly on ownership.

I suspect that Cardinals ownership is planning on a youth-movement rebuilding effort after this year. The Cards were close to winning it all for the past three years, so it looks by all accounts that their plan was to stand pat, let Walt tweak a few positions, and rake in the money from the new stadium.

Okay, that didn't work. The pitching staff is not just bad; it's bad on an epic scale. As far as the offense goes, Pujols is the only one you can count on, and now he's starting to break down physically from the pressure of trying to win every game single-handedly (because he knows he's not getting any help).

So the next step is to clean house in the off-season and rebuild with young players, and this is where LaRussa and pitching coach Dave Duncan no longer fit in. The team has at least two or three pitching prospects in Memphis who could throw a better gopher ball than the lifeless corpse of Jeff Weaver, but LaRussa prefers veteran players. What's he going to do if the only veterans on the team are Albert, Scott Rolen and Chris Carpenter?

It's obvious that this course of action is long overdue. Management is on record as unwilling to increase payroll any further, and there's no way--without a salary cap--that the Cardinals' performance can be improved by adding talented veterans. They just cost too much. Look at the Mets. They've loaded up on talented veterans, but their payroll exploded as well. And in the end, it won't make any difference for them, either, because there are about six AL teams (at least) who could beat anyone the NL throws at them in the World Series.

The Cardinals couldn't very well have a fire sale when they are sitting in first place; that's understandable. But if they fade and don't make the playoffs or lose to the Mets in the NLCS, I think the next step would be to jettison just about everyone for young players and talented prospects. I would listen to trade talks for everyone except Pujols. Yes, I would send Scott Rolen off if the price was right. He's not been the same since his injury last year, and there is clearly a lot of young infield talent to be had.

Jim Edmonds is almost a St. Louis icon, but he may not have much trade value past this year. Everyone else is expendable, including Eckstein and Molina. Isringhausen still has some trade value due to the dearth of closers available, and you might get some minor league talent for Marquis.

The big question is whether Jocketty can put together a young team with raw talent and potential. We have seen his skill in adding veterans, but the money for that just is not available, at least in the sense of Bill DeWitt writing the check (he obviously prefers adding baseball revenue to his Mammon-like bank account instead). The next question is whether LaRussa and Duncan can get results from a young and inexperienced team. This has been the biggest criticism of both men in their coaching careers: great with veterans; no patience for young players. Why else would they pitch Jeff Weaver over Adam Wainwright?

I don't want the Cardinals to become the Florida Marlins; on the other hand, Florida has won two World Series since the Cardinals last won theirs in 1982. They have the lowest payroll in baseball, about $15 million, but they're only seven games below .500 with first-time manager Joe Girardi. That's only 8.5 games behind the Cardinals, whose payroll exceeds $90 million.

The Cardinals aren't going to win the World Series this year or next with this group. Adding veterans is a financial impossibility. They have to go with a youth movement and rebuild from the ground up. And I don't think that Tony LaRussa is the right man for that job. If he doesn't either, I hope he decides to resign after the season and leave on his own terms. At this point, moving on might be the best decision for everyone.

Top Ten Reasons the Cardinals Got Swept by the Cubs

10. Team was confused--thought they were playing the Chicago White Sox again.

9. Running away with the NL Central Division title the past few years just got boring.

8. Albert Pujols feigning injury and slump to conceal his superhuman identity, ala "Clark Kent."

7. George W. Bush's "loser stink" rubbed off on close friend and Cards owner Bill DeWitt.

6. Not paying attention to game--watching "Blade" marathon on Spike TV in dugout.

5. LaRussa wanted to spare Izzy the mental anguish of four blown saves.

4. So Taguchi took team out for tainted sushi at Benihana.

3. The Curse of Ernie Broglio.

2. Pitchers blew out arms trying to win "super-size prize" at the baseball toss game at Six Flags Great America.

1. Tony LaRussa rehearsing for annual post-season choke and collapse.

So this is what I've been reduced to...

The NBA Finals are all I've got.

The Cardinals stink worse than a dead possum on the side of the road in an August heatwave. Roadkill's a good description for this sorry bunch. Their starting pitching is horrible, giving up an average of about five runs per game. Their middle relief has been somewhat encouraging, though none of these soft tossers will ever remind anyone of Eric Gagne or Billy Wagner. If I start to talk about Isringhausen, I might fly into a Bruce Banner becomes The Hulk rage and smash my computer before I get a chance to upload this post.

Bill DeWitt apologist Al "Mad Sycophant" Hrabosky says Cardinals fans should support Izzy. What on earth for? I think walking the bases loaded every time he pitches warrants a little hostility on the part of fans. Speaking of DeWitt, he's not letting Jocketty do a darn thing to improve this team as long as they're selling out the new ballpark in the middle of the week. The only thing rich people respond to is a decline in the bottom line. Cut this guy off from his cash cow and watch how fast Walt makes a trade.

At this point, wouldn't the NHL be better off going to strictly pay-per-view? This awful Stanley Cup finals is going to be a sweep--and a blowout sweep at that--that only a handful of people will (or even can) watch. The Outdoor Life Network? Are you kidding me? The channel that deer hunters turn to when they want to watch deer hunting?

By the way, it's easy to slam marginal television sports like hunting and my personal kryptonite, poker. What more disturbing to me is the proliferation of these kinds of shows. It seems like every other channel is showing some poker tournament. I mean, what kind of a pointless existence does someone have to lead to watch a televised poker tournament. It's four hours of watching people who natural selection evidently overlooked stare vacantly at each other and occasionally push stacks of plastic disks forward on the table. This crap makes "My Dinner With Andre" look like "Die Hard."

At least I've got Mike & Mike in the Morning on ESPN2, right? Wrong--we're into something like the 13th week of French Open tennis coverage in the morning. Tennis? Are you kidding me? The men are soulless robots, clones without personalities who make Ben Stein look like Crispin Glover. The women? Skinny Russian teens (these girls are hot? Only if you like anorexic junior high girls) against Belgian dwarves? I remember when we had Connors, McEnroe, Borg, Nastase and Ashe on the men's side. At this point, even a blank technician like Ivan Lendl has ten times the charisma of a cipher like Roger Federer. On the women's side, there was Martina, Chrissy, Billy Jean...icons known only by their first names. Now we're stuck with a never-ending series of unpronouncable European adolescents. And how long does this tournament last, anyway? At this point, it's longer than the NHL playoffs, which started around Valentine's Day and might end by the 4th of July.

That leaves the NBA. Of course, I am giddy about the prospect of the Miami/Dallas matchup--old master Riley coaching against young wizard Avery Johnson; Shaq vs. Dirk; Wade vs. Terry; Mark Cuban freaking out on the sidelines. This is going to be the most entertaining NBA Finals series since MJ, Scottie and the Worm were playing for the Zen Master in Chicago.

Man, I'm glad there are two teams playing who I would be equally happy to see win, because at this point, the NBA is all I've got.

Tuck gives us his Stanley Cup preview

A special treat today in The Sandlot—Hockey cartoonist and frequent sarcastic comment contributor “Tuck” offers his take on the Stanley Cup Finals, which started tonight.

Q: Edmonton Oilers vs. Carolina Hurricane--why should the casual or curious hockey fan tune into this matchup (assuming they are one of the 27 households who get the OLN cable channel)? What is most intriguing about this matchup?

A: Well, first off, can someone please explain to me who, exactly, is supposed to be the "casual" hockey fan? Doesn't this marginalize hockey fans (proper)? Doesn't this stink like rhetorical strategy on the part of ESPN/ABC to extort a more favorable TV deal from the league? You never hear anyone talk about the "casual NBA fan," or the "casual pro rasslin' fan"...but I digress...

Given the STL-centric nature of your space, I'd say there's LOTS for you (and your readers) to find intriguing:

1) First off, we have the "Count the Ex-Blues": On the left, we have Rolofson, MacTavish, and Prongs; on the right, we have Head-i-case, Rod the Bod, Stillman, and Doug Weight. And that's just off the top of my head. The more industrious fan will want to research this further, and likely turn it into a drinking game of some sort.

2) Related to the "Count the Ex-Blues," there's "Who Do You Hate More"? Finding someone to cheer for in this series is going to be a serious test of the STL hockey fan's resiliance. My memory isn't so addled as to not remember Head-i-case's conduct, both as a Blue, and then immediately in the wake of the "Trade-him-make-the-Janney-For-Nedved-debacle-go-away" Fiasco (as a Vancouver Canuck). Then there's Cory "You Don't Wanna Pay Me What I Want? Fine, I'm Going To Tampa and Winning a Cup!" Stillman. And all of us have heard the "Hi, I'm God, but you can call me Chris Pronger" stories. So you (eventually) have to go positive, and cheer FOR Doug Weight (not to mention, he's likely coming back home to the Note next season). I figure if JoeJoe Murphy has HIS name on the cup (and just who exactly are they turning away then??), then Weight can have his there. Not to mention the thought of Weight knocking out his former team to get there (in Edmonton) is just too much. And yes, ALL this is in spite of the sign I saw on TV in Carolina last night, "Redneck Hockey."

3) Another fun game: Spot Kristi Yamaguchi. (She's apparently married to Head-i-case.)

Q: Break down the goalie matchup--we have Carolina rookie Cam Ward going against Edmonton veteran Dwayne Roloson--who has the edge, and why?

A: Gotta tell ya, I think this series has less to do with the goalie matchup than it does with how effective the Carolina forecheck is, versus how effective the Oilers D will be.

On the other hand, the Canes could just employ the same tactics they used against my adopted Sabres...if you can't beat 'em, injure 60% of their D. (But I'm not bitter or anything. Well, not much.)

Q: How much will Edmonton's long layoff affect their performance in the first couple of games, especially since they will be on the road? Does this give Carolina a big advantage?

A: Apparently they've been in New York practicing for the last week...you know, that time difference between Alberta and the NEUS is SO FREAKIN INHOSPITABLE...so who knows. Personally, I think they're just there so that Michael Peca can show off all his favorite places from when he played for the Islanders for 20 minutes...


Q: How much will the coaching matchup—Peter Laviolette for Carolina vs. Craig MacTavish (still without a helmet) for Edmonton--affect the outcome of the series?

A: Well, no one will ever confuse either of these guys for Sun Tzu. But I think a pretty nice sub-plot is the news that (again, reportedly) Laviolette has been offered the GM/Coach dual role by the New York Islanders (them AGAIN??)...all while trying to steer his team to the Cup. Yikes.

Q: Which team will raise the Cup this year and why?

A: The short answer is Carolina, b/c God won't allow the #8 seed to skate away with the hardware. On the other hand, there's the issue of that "Redneck Hockey" sign (but again, it's not like Atlanta or Nashville are in the Finals. And the league already awarded the cup to Dallas in 99, so it's about time a Southern franchise, you know, actually WON it). (Did someone say "bitter"? Again, not me.) But the bottom line is that I just think Carolina is the deeper team (and, no, not b/c Barry Melrose and/or his mullet says so).

Q: As a transplant to the Buffalo, NY region, were you disappointed with the Sabres falling short, or did they overachieve this year? What did you like and dislike about their team?

A: First off, let me just point out that it's less than 24 hours since my other guys were eliminated, but I'm not bitter. Well, not a lot. Now, onto the disappointment: A little disappointed, I thought they had a really good chance to win it all this year, but you'll recall (from personal correspondence) that I had the Sabres as a Final Four team at the beginning of the season (with Ottawa as the other from the East, so there you go). This flew in the face of ALL the alleged experts (like Ted Whatisisname from USA Today online, for example, who must have dug out all his predictions from 2003 and just re-submitted them). Anyone who was surprised by Buffalo this season (and then continually went out of their way to reiterate that "'no one' saw them coming" throughout the season) just wasn't paying attention to the Rochester Americans (AHL) in 2004-2005, and certainly couldn't have been checking out hockeybuzz.com earlier in the season. This team was custom-built from the beginning of the lockout for this kind of CBA, and anything less than the Conference finals would have been a shortfall. And I will maintain til my last breath, that if 60% (that's right, all but FOUR) of their defense hadn't been injured, the Sabres coulda/shoulda/woulda been starting on Monday (instead of Bret Freakin Head-i-case)...

Q: As a fellow Blues fan, here's what really sticks in my craw about these finals: Carolina features ex-Blues Rod Brind'amour, Doug Weight, Cory Stillman and Bret Hedican; Edmonton is led by the consensus best player in the NHL Chris Pronger (who the Blues traded for what, a six-pack of Moosehead Beer?). What is it about the Blues that they can't keep quality players, and what would be an appropriate punishment for Mark Sauer and Larry Pleau-must-geau?

A: You forgot Rolofson and MacTavish. You owe me a round (or something). I don't know that we should get too upset about Stillman or Hedican -- it wasn't like they set the world on fire when they were here. I look at those guys like Andy Van Slyke -- they were NEVER going to excel with the home team, but you can see how a change of scenery would do/did them good.

I tend to blame Weight and Pronger on Bill Laurie. Which is why I'll never spend another dollar at Wal Mart. Ever.

And Rod The Bod? Jeez, it's been such a long time...it's kinda like seeing your ex-girlfriend from highschool starring in a Cinemax softcore Friday night special, isn't it? Yeah, everyone can see she might've been hot at one time (tho the years haven't been exactly kind), and, yeah, everyone knows she "got away from you," and yeah, she's "famous," but...you know, it's Cinemax (or Raleigh-Durham, in this case).

As for Pleaumustgeau and Sauer...that's simple. They have to sit and watch DVR of every minute of every game from the 2005-2006 season...(so you can see: Sadistic, yes, bitter, no.)

Q: What do you think about new Blues owner Dave Checketts, and what is your outlook for the Note next season?

A: Haven't seen anything from Checketts yet, so it's wait and see. But if the spies are telling the truth, we're gonna like what he has in store (John Davidson, anyone? HE knows something about goalie!) (insert your favorite Chris Osgood joke here)....

Why we must have a Miami vs. Dallas final...

Because the prospect of watching Dirk Nowitzki going up against Shaq is just too good to pass up. Of course, even though both teams are just one win away from the NBA Finals, the prospect of dual game sevens is distressing for a few reasons.

In the East, Miami needs to close out Detroit at home in game six. I don't like their chances if they have to go back to Detroit for a decisive game seven. In the same vein, even though a West game seven would be back in Dallas if Phoenix wins game six at home, the Suns have shown that they can steal a road game anywhere, and they've already won game sevens in their two previous series.

The possible Miami-Dallas matchup is intriguing because of the quality of their star players and their ability to play at both ends of the court. With Phoenix-Detroit, what you would get is fast-break offense against shut-down defense, which spells abject boredom (blowouts or low-scoring snoozers) for the casual NBA Finals fan such as myself.

For casual fans, it's all about the star power. Phoenix has Steve Nash, who is Canadian, which means he has about as much charisma as Bob and/or Doug MacKenzie (take off, eh! no, you take off, you hoser!). Who else plays for Phoenix? Yeah, that's my point. Detroit has a great starting five if you appreciate team defense, but they don't have any star power at all. Come on, does any kid in America really have a Rasheed Wallace poster on their wall? I don't think so.

With Dallas, you have Nowitzki, who looks like Lurch's little brother and sounds like Schwarzenegger's little brother, an absolute freak of nature--a seven-foot white guy who moves quickly and gracefully and can play in the paint, grab rebounds, make free throws and hit the three. He's one of the most exciting players to watch since Jordan was with the Bulls or when Kobe still had Shaq.

Speaking of Shaq, he and Dwyane Wade are one of the best current tandems in the league. Add in all the other "NBA Greatest Hits" talent--Gary Payton, Alonzo Mourning, Antoine Walker--as well as Machiavelli-in-Armani coach Pat Riley, and Miami's easily the most interesting team in the league.

Finally, you want Dallas in because the prospect of watching David Stern handing the championship trophy to Mavs owner Mark Cuban is just to delicious to let slip away. Here's hoping Dallas and Miami both take care of business this weekend and give us an NBA Finals that's actually worth watching.

NBA's Final Four Promises Intriguing Series

Let's get this straight right from the top—I'm not an NBA fan, and I never have been, really. I've lived my entire life in Missouri where the closest professional team is at least two tanks of gasoline away and where the sports seasons are baseball, football and hockey. What I have been, however, is a curious fan of the NBA's star players. I was first enamored by Julius "Dr. J" Erving back in the 1970s and '80s, so I followed the 76ers back then.

After that, I became a Charles Barkley fan because a) he played for Dr. J's old team; b) so many people seemed to dislike him. That always appealed to the nonconformist in me. When Barkley went to the Phoenix Suns, I rooted for Phoenix, especially in the finals when they lost to Michael Jordan's Bulls. Can you believe it—I was cheering against MJ? Of course, after that, I did what all casual NBA fans did; I became a de facto Bulls fan.

I never watch NBA games during the season, and I only tune in sporadically to the playoff games, but once it gets to this point, I tune in more often and for more of the game. These conference finals matchups give us a lot to look forward to, and I'm hoping for a truly memorable final (and one that doesn't include the most boring team ever: the Detroit Pistons).

In the West, we've got Phoenix vs. Dallas. I like Dallas for two reasons—Dirk Nowitski (geeky-looking German guy! Can we get him to do a cover of "Rock Me Amadeus"? Can someone convince him to walk off the court after a win and say "Hasta la vista, baby"?) and Mark Cuban (one of the few rich guys I actually like because he made a billion dollars as an Internet geek and now spends said billions exactly the way you or I would—he buys a professional sports team, does whatever he can to win, and hangs out behind the bench in jeans and a T-shirt. You just know it would about give David Stern a stroke to hand the championship trophy to Cuban. Stern would probably fine him afterward out of force of habit.)

In the East, it's a rematch of last year, Detroit vs. Miami, except this time, Detroit looks very vulnerable, the Heat have Pat Riley behind the bench, and Shaquille O'Neal is in the twilight of his career, so he knows this may be his last chance for a ring. Add in Dwayne Wade vs. the Pistons defense and you have what promises to be a cross between a basketball game and the 1980s classic movie "The Warriors."

I don't think these are perfect matches. It would have been been even better if we had the Clippers instead of Phoenix in the West (perennial doormat makes good after three decades of incompetence and futility) and Cleveland instead of Detroit (LeBron James, the next star for casual non-team-loyal fans like me), but in any case, with the Blues long gone from the hockey scene, at least I'm interested enough to watch some basketball here in the late spring.