Random Thoughts for my 100th Post

That's right, Sandlot fans, this is my 100th post since this blog started. Thanks for reading over the past couple of years. I had a day off from work yesterday, which means I watched ESPN for about 23 hours, so here are some random thoughts about what's going on in the the world of sports...

Colts vs. Jaguars
That was just a dominating performance by the Colts last night. In the past few years, even when Indy's been able to beat the Jags, Jacksonville's always been the more physical team. But on MNF, Indy played superior on both sides of the ball. Peyton Manning was his usual amazing self, hitting Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark with huge, timely passes, and Joseph Addai continued to show why he's one of the best backs in the league. But it was Bob Sanders and Dwight Freeney on the defensive side who made the biggest difference with game-changing tackles, a pick and a safety. The Colts still have to take care of business on the road in Carolina Sunday after a short practice week, but with a win, that will lead to the biggest game of the regular season Nov. 4 when they host the...

New England Patriots
Don't get me wrong, I hate the Pats as much as any other Boston team, in particular because of their arrogant fan base in Massachusetts, but it sure is fun watching a football team that looks like a video game or a ridiculously unrealistic Hollywood sports movie. ESPN.com's Bill Simmons (a.k.a. Boston Sports Guy) has labeled them the "Cobra Kai Yankees." That's great. Unbeatable and Hated. I can't help but smile at Randy Moss's success, though. He's been my favorite receiver since his days in Minnesota, and he's showing everyone why he's simply the best wide receiver since Jerry Rice retired. Unless they lose at Indianapolis (the only game other than hosting Pittsburgh that looks like a possible loss), we're looking at the 19-0 Superbowl champions.

"Red Sox Nation"
Can we please stop using this phrase? Can the original "Cardinal Nation," in existence since the 1940s, please sue these bandwagon jumpers for trademark infringement. For those who no nothing of baseball history (including the aforementioned bandwagoners), Cardinal Nation refers back to the time when St. Louis was the westernmost franchise in professional baseball. Before western expansion and franchise relocation, baseball fans west of the Mississippi followed the Cardinals. Combined with the midwestern broadcast reach of former broadcast station KMOX, the roots of Cardinals fans spreads through more than ten states in the Midwest. I certainly won't deny the historical appeal of the Red Sox throughout New England, but Red Sox Nation? That's just more hype from the Eastcoast Sports Promotion Network.

MIZ-ZOU!!!
Okay, so we're up to 13th in the BCS after the Saturday beatdown of Texas Tech and their vaunted #1 offense. I can live with that ranking, but the top ten is just ridiculous. Kansas #9? Are you kidding? Who have they beaten? Mizzou's going to beat them by three touchdowns when they meet at the end of the season. I just wish all the screaming kids in the student section at Faurot Field could really appreciate what they are experiencing. Mizzou has won more games in the past two years than they did during my entire undergrad career (1986-1990). Gary Pinkel is changing the identity of both the team and the fan base from...wait for it..."At least they're trying!" to "We expect to win." It's about time.

LaRussa Returns
Great. Six division titles, one wildcard, two NL pennants and a World Championship. Tell me again, why did we want to get a new manager? Was there someone with a better record available? Tony can leave when Tony wants to leave. Whiteyball was over twenty years ago. Tony LaRussa should already be considered the best manager in Redbird's history. Welcome back, skipper.

Nothing Left to Lose

I love football. I was raised to love baseball in the way that some children are raised to follow a religion. But if baseball is my faith (I'm monotheistic—St. Louis Cardinals only; no other team even matters), then football is my passionate mistress.

I play pick-up games with friends from my workplace, which, since it's a college, includes some guys half my age with whom I have no business playing. I always feel like Samuel L. Jackson in "Unbreakable" for at least two days after I play. And even though my arm is worse than Chad Pennington's, my teammates insist that I play quarterback.

Why? In our games, the QB is also the play caller, and I'm a great offensive coordinator. I use the run a lot, which is almost unknown in pass-wacky touch football games, again mainly because of my crummy passing arm, and I try to be as creative as possible with mismatches and misdirection plays.

But here's the thing: I'm a terrible head coach. I tried to coach flag football a couple of years ago, and my team was a disaster. We didn't win a single game; we tied the last game of the year. I realized that what makes me a good offensive coordinator—an almost obsessive concern with moving the ball and scoring—didn't serve me as a head coach.

Why not? Great offenses are about "right brain" thinking: creativity, unpredictability, taking goofy chances. But football teams are based on discipline and teamwork, which is the hallmark of the defensive side of the ball. I don't care about defensive strategy. I want to figure out how to beat a defense. It's no accident that my favorite players throughout the ages—Fran Tarkenton, Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning—have been quarterbacks.

Look at last year's Superbowl coaches: Tony Dungy and Lovie Smith, both defensive coordinators at some point in their career. Bill Belicheck was Bill Parcell's defensive guru. New Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin is a defensive guy. Wade Phillips? Succeeding in Dallas; defensive guy. Norv Turner? Stinking it up in San Diego; offensive guy.

That leads me to the point. I like Scott Linehan. He was a great offensive mind in Minnesota, the reason for all the success between Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss. He also had success in Miami with that offense despite a lack of talent. But he's an absolute disaster as a head coach in St. Louis. He'd probably be a great offensive coordinator, but he's not going to win a game this year with this Rams team. They don't respect him.

No one respects the offensive guy. The offensive guy is weird. We're nerds. Mike Martz is our king, and he wasn't the greatest head coach in the world, either. I'm not saying offensive guys can't make it, but if I owned a team, I'd be looking for a defensive genius. Good defensive guys create good teams. Good offensive guys are better off sticking with the offense.

Hey, there's no shame in being the #3 or #4 guy on the organizational flow chart. Come on, who would you rather be right now, George W. Bush or the President Pro-Tem of the Senate? (By the way, that's Sen. Robert Byrd, D-WVA, and yes, I had to look it up.) So, whether he decides to resign on his own, or whether the Rams fire him, it's time for Scott Linehan to go. I hope he finds success running an offense somewhere. We already have the ideal interim head coach in place: defensive coordinator Jim Haslett. This needs to happen now. If I was the team owner, I'd already be making it happen.

Oh, and one more thing: Vikings head coach Brad Childress was offensive coordinator for the Eagles before he went to Minnesota. What's he done so far? Only relegated shoe-in Rookie of the Year Adrian Peterson to a backup role while starting Tarvaris Jackson at QB, who sounds like a fill-in distant cousin of the original Jackson Five lineup. "Ladies and Gentlemen, here they are: Jackie, Tito, Jermaine, Marlon, and filling in for Michael...Tarvaris!" Just shoot me now, please.

At least Peyton Manning's head coach is a defensive guy.

p.s. Check out the new link at the top of the page for "Tuck's Baseball Toons." Sandlot supporter and comrade Tuck is now publishing his work at The Hardball Times. Support those who support The Sandlot!

The only NFL Power Poll that counts!

"Power polls" are fine, but they're so subjective as to be laughable. The guys who get paid to write the kind of columns that I'm doing for free (although if anyone wants to pay me, I'll be happy to cash your check) include teams like San Diego and Chicago based on reputation or expectation rather than performance. Here at "The Sandlot," now that the season is 25% over, we're only going to consider who would be playoff teams if the season ended today.

AFC Division Winners
East—New England Patriots (5-0)
North—Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1)
South—Indianapolis Colts (5-0)
West—Oakland Raiders (2-2)

AFC Wildcards
Tennessee Titans (3-1)
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1)

If the playoffs were held today...
Pittsburgh over Jacksonville; Tennessee over Oakland; Indy over Pittsburgh; NE over Tenn.; NE over Indy.

NFC Division Winners
East—Dallas Cowboys (5-0)
North—Green Bay Packers (4-1)
South—Tampa Bay Bucs (3-2)
West—Arizona Cardinals (3-2)

NFC Wildcards
Washington Redskins (3-1)
Carolina Panthers (3-2; best conf. record)

If the playoffs were held today...
Washington over Arizona; Tampa over Carolina; Dallas over Washington; Green Bay over Tampa (Fla. team at Lambeau in January!); Dallas over Green Bay.

My current Superbowl Prediction: New England over Dallas...hey, that game kicks off at 3:15 CDT this Sunday! Lucky us!

NFL Week 2 in Review

This year in The Sandlot, instead of recapping every game, I’m going to take a look at the division leaders, and as we get further into the year, focusing on playoff position and potential matchups, since the playoffs are the only place it matters anyway.

NFC East
Dallas and Washington are both 2-0, but Dallas is obviously the class of that division. I think Washington will be improved this year, but I don’t see them beating high-quality teams in close games. On the other hand, Wade Phillips is a good enough defensive coach to make use of the talent Parcells left him while allowing his O.C. to run the show with Romo and T.O. Dallas may end up with the #1 seed in a weak NFC.

NFC North
Anyone else think Detroit and Green Bay will stay on top of this division? It’s wide open when you consider the strength of the defenses in Chicago and Minnesota. If either of those teams had even an NCAA D1 caliber QB, they’d be feared. But Tarvaris Jackson is a joke, and Rex Grossman is simply the worst in a long history of bad Bears quarterbacks. Having said that, in another weak division, there’s no reason why all four teams can’t compete to win the division with a 9-7 record. No one here is for real, though. It might be the Bears, but not until Lovie throws Rex overboard.

NFC South
I don’t think Tampa is for real, so the division is Carolina’s for the taking. Except I don’t think they’re for real. What’s wrong with the Saints? Easy—last year was a fluke. Drew Brees and Reggie Bush both had chips on their shoulders, combined with the emotion of playing in the wake of Katrina. Now they’re left with a first place schedule, an average QB and a lousy defense. Heck, let’s go with Tampa for now.

NFC West
Call me crazy, but I have to go with Arizona here. I hate Seattle because they’re chronic underachievers led by a bafflingly overrated head coach. Holmgren’s been riding Brett Favre’s coattails for way too long. SF has a tough defense but not enough offensive firepower, thanks to lousy wide receivers. The Rams stink on ice. That leaves Arizona, with a dynamic offense, a quick, tough defense and capable leadership in the coaching staff. All they need to win the division is 9-7, so let’s see what happens from here.

Tomorrow: AFC recap

We better hope they're not really trying

I love the NFL, I really do. I can't wait for the season to start, so much so that I look forward to watching preseason games, like the Rams playing at Oakland last night.

So much for that.

Look, I know that preseason doesn't count for anything. Indianapolis is something like 1-11 in their last 12 preseason games, and they're the defending Superbowl champions and win their division every year. So just because the Rams looked like the Mizzou Tigers from...well, as long as I've been alive, it seems...last night, that's not necessarily cause for concern.

Except I've never felt like Marc Bulger has the potential to be a championship quarterback. I don't care what his stats say; he looks like Bambi in the headlights of a cement mixer out there. The offensive line looks more like theater ushers--"This way to the quarterback, sir!" and the defense can't decide whether to run a failed blitz or commit another penalty.

Okay, okay, last night was no Steven Jackson, no Torry Holt, no Orlando Pace, and the playbook's nothing but plain, unflavored yogurt. Still, I've been a Rams fan since they relocated twelve years ago, and this team looks like '95-'98 a lot more than '99-'02. The NFC West is weak, as is the NFC as a whole. A team doesn't have to be great to make it to the playoffs, just good. Indy proved that good can be great in January when it counts. Let's just hope the Rams aren't really trying that much, not really trying at all, because the team that played last night got their rear-ends beat to pieces by the worst team in the NFL, the Oakland Raiders. I'm certainly not giddy with anticipation at this point.

At least they're making it interesting...

I'm not sure exactly why some people call these the "dog days" of summer. My two dogs put together are only half as smart as G.W. Bush, and they have sense enough to stay inside their cool basement shelter during these sweltering Midwest days. I feel like setting the next meteorologist on fire who talks about "cooler temperatures in the low 90s." Say what? Ninety-three degrees with 80 percent humidity still feels like the Amazonian Rain Forest, okay?

But for some unknown reason, the St. Louis Cardinals are still playing baseball like it matters. When it's too hot to step outside and meaningful NFL games are still a few weeks away, at least the Cards are giving the Nation a glimmer of hope, even if it is only for next year.

Now I wouldn't be stupid enough to write this club off again after my bluster and certainty about the fork embedded in their backs last year. Rings and trophies, anyone? But that was also at a time when the club was well out in first place. This team has no legitimate starting pitcher who has experienced previous success in that role, unless you count Kip Wells five years ago in Pittsburgh. Wells was injured last year. Adam Wainwright and Braden Looper were both bullpen staples, and Anthony Reyes has spent the better part of the last two seasons in the minors. I honestly can't think of who our fifth starter is. Is it still Brad Thompson?

Thanks to a weak NL Central in which the Cubs and Brewers both refuse to pull away in spite of better talent and stronger pitching, the Cardinals are sitting just three games out of first place. That would be great if they weren't still two games below .500. The team hasn't been above .500 since April. So what does this all mean?

First of all, it at least makes the games worth checking in on, if not watching outright. This has been for me, for the most part, a summer without baseball. When the Cardinals were playing as bad as they had been in June and July, there was no point in watching. I'm a Minnesota Vikings fan, so I don't need to inflict any further "rooting despite the utter futility of this failure of team" into my sports environment.

This so-called pennant chase is an illusion; the Cardinals don't have the pitching to go on a long winning streak, and the center of their lineup--Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen--are all injured, despite their recent success. Pujols limps around the bases like Fred Sanford, Rolen's shoulder is likely to snap like a dry twig, and Edmonds is something like 177 years old now in dog years.

So why is this still interesting? Two reasons: Rick Ankiel, Ryan Ludwick, Yadi Molina, Brendan Ryan and a host of other young players have injected some life into the team. Second, Tony LaRussa has done another typically masterful job of keeping the team focused and playing hard when it would have been a heck of a lot easier to just call Walt Jocketty and ask, "Pittsburgh or Cincinnati?" and then just phone in the rest of the season.

I'm curious now about two things: can Jocketty get another starting pitcher at the waiver-trade deadline next week to mix into the rotation? If that occurs and (BIG if) if Mark Mulder can return in September and pitch effectively--even for just five innings--then the Cards can keep the pressure on Milwaukee and Chicago. Second, if LaRussa decides to return next year (assuming the club still wants him; this seems like a no-brainer, but the Bush administration has conclusively proven that rich people are freakin' stupid), can he effectively manage, motivate, and most importantly, teach, a team with a nucleus made up mainly of young players? I mean, other than Molina and Pujols, all other position players are tradeable, right?

Frankly, if they were 20 games below .500 and fighting Pittsburgh for last place, I wouldn't even care enough to write about it. But at least they're making things interesting...

March Madness: The Bottom Line/updated March 23 @ 11 a.m.

Overall picks: (39-13-1)
first round record: 23-9
second round record: 12-3-1 (third no. for game with two teams not picked)
Sweet Sixteen (4-1)
seven Elite Eight and all Final Four teams still alive

Yeah, yeah, I'm playing five brackets on "The Sandlot" group at ESPN.com's Tournament Challenge. But here at The Sandlot, I only have one chance to put up or shut up. So, if I only had one bracket to play, here's what it would look like...

MIDWEST REGIONAL (5-3)
First Round
Florida over Jackson St. (duh)
Arizona over Purdue (I like Lute Olson in the Tourney)
Old Dominion over Butler (Butler has faded badly in the past month; a 12 always beats a 5)
Maryland over Davidson (Maryland has been tough to beat in the ACC)
Notre Dame over Winthrop (ehh...)
Oregon over Miami-OH (My sleeper pick for the Final Four)
UNLV over GaTech (this game could go either way)
Wisconsin over TAMU-CC (I hate Wisconsin's chances, but they'll win this one)

WEST REGIONAL (5-3)
First Round
Kansas over Niagara (KU's in most people's FF picks, and [pukes] rightly so)
Villanova over Kentucky (Tubby might keep his job, but he won't get past the other Wildcats)
Virginia Tech over Illinois (the Illini are too slow to run with the Hokies)
SIU over Holy Cross (a popular upset pick, but I'm not biting; stick with the Salukis)
Duke over VCU (no way Coach K doesn't spoil all the Duke haters' upset pick here)
Pitt over Wright St. (I think Pitt will be back in early season form for the tourney)
Gonzaga over Indiana (I don't like the Big 10 teams in speed or shooting matchups)
UCLA over Weber St. (if any team beats Kansas, this is the one)

EAST REGIONAL (5-3)
First Round
North Carolina over E. Kentucky (even though Tyler is from my home town, I'm not one of these disgusting UNC homers breeding like rats around here. Yuck!)
Marquette over Michigan St. (could go either way, but I'm picking Big East over Big 10)
USC over Arkansas (should have been Syracuse in the Hogs' spot)
Texas over NM St. (Kevin Durant, baby! I'm watching every single Texas game until they're done)
George Washington over Vanderbilt (Here's why I love GW: "Where did you go to school?" "Uh, it was called George Washington." "Oh, GW! Did you pledge?" "Every day." [if you don't know what movie this is from, then I just can't help you])
Oral Roberts over Washington St. (because God told me so; he also threatened to "call the coach home" if they didn't upset Wazoo)
Boston College over Texas Tech (screw Bob Knight, I'm not picking him to win)
Georgetown over Belmont (the only thing that bothers me about G-Town is that they have become everyone's darling early on, and that usually spells doom)

SOUTH REGIONAL (8-0)
First Round
Ohio St. over Central Conn. St. (Central Connecticut State? Is that really a D-1 college?)
Xavier over BYU (any college named after famous Latin bandleader Xavier Cougat is okay with me)
Tennessee over Long Beach St. (forget Pat Summit in a cheerleading outfit; they need to get Peyton Manning out there in an orange jumpsuit! And yes, clearly I have a sickening man-crush on Peyton. I need help.)
Virginia over Albany (I think an entire state should beat a state capital)
Louisville over Stanford (the fact that Stanford got into the tournament makes me think someone on the selection committee has a kid who's trying to get into Stanford)
Texas A&M over Penn (everybody's sweetheart this year)
Nevada over Creighton (another toss-up in my book)
Memphis over N. Texas (I absolutely love, love, LOVE Memphis in the tourney this year)

SECOND ROUND
Midwest (3-1)
Florida over Arizona [Purdue]
Maryland over Old Dominion [Butler]—Butler
Oregon over Notre Dame [Winthrop]
UNLV over Wisconsin

West (4-0)
Kansas over Villanova [Kentucky]
SIU over VaTech
Pitt over Duke [VCU]
UCLA over Gonzaga [Indiana]

East (2-1-1)
Carolina over Marquette [Michigan St.]
Texas over USC
GW over Oral Roberts (sorry, God) [Vanderbilt over Wash. St.]
Georgetown over Boston College

South (3-1)
Ohio St. over Xavier
Virginia over Tennessee
Texas A&M over Louisville
Memphis over Nevada

SWEET SIXTEEN (4-1)
Florida over Maryland [Butler]
Oregon over UNLV
Kansas over So. Illinois
UCLA over Pitt
Texas over Carolina vs. [USC] (I pick Carolina)
Georgetown over GW [Vanderbilt]
Ohio State over Virginia [Tennessee]
Memphis over Texas A&M

ELITE EIGHT
Florida over Oregon
Kansas over UCLA
Georgetown over Texas
Memphis over Ohio State

FINAL FOUR
Kansas over Florida
Georgetown over Memphis

NATIONAL CHAMPION
Kansas over Georgetown (I hate myself...)

As the tournament progresses, I'll be updating this prediction post with wins and losses, and I'll also do like the "experts" do and make new predictions based on real matchups in the next rounds. For those of you who want to talk smack...well, that why we're here, right?

My Predictable Super Bowl Prediction

Colts, of course. I picked them way back in August to win the whole thing (over Seattle, by the way). I'm thinking the final score will be 41-45 Colts to 17-23 by the Bears, and here's why.

1) The Colts offense should be able to score consistently against the Bears defense because the Colts offense is more talented position-by-position than the defenders on the other side of the ball, with the exception of Urlacher. Expect a big game from Harrison, Wayne, Clark, Rhodes and Addai. Oh yeah, that Manning guy's pretty good, too.

2) The Colts defense will focus on stopping the run and forcing Rex Grossman to make the kind of bad decisions that have plagued him all season. I figure he's good for at least three turnovers, most of which should result in Colts points.

3) If Chicago gets a lead, Indy can come back in a hurry. Chicago lacks that ability, and I think Indy will jump out to a big lead in the first half.

4) Tony Dungy is the master; Lovie Smith is the student. I don't think there will be much that will take Dungy by surprise today. I also get the sense that karma has decided to reward Dungy at last. Smith may have technically made it to the Super Bowl first, but Dungy is the real African-American trailblazer in terms of big-name, big-time black coaches.

5) The Colts had the harder road to the game, getting past KC, Baltimore on the road (the league's best defense, for all you Bears lovers), and then Jason and Freddy from Boston. The Bears won two games at home mainly thanks to a sloppy field. Anyone think Chicago could have won on the road in Seattle and New Orleans?

6) AFC Dominance. If San Diego, New England or even Baltimore were in this game, Chicago wouldn't even be given a slight change; the spread would be double-digits. Indy doesn't get the same respect because of the Peyton-haters and the porous run defense (now fixed in three playoff games, btw).

So there you have it. I've only actively rooted for a favorite team in three previous games: the Vikings in 1977 and the Rams in 2000 and 2002. Let's hope I can get to .500 tonight.

AFC Championship: The Best Football Game of All Time

I was rehearsing with my friends in our basement band, a '60s and '70s-era classic rock band named "The Rainmakers," when Asante Samuel picked off Peyton Manning's stupid, pointless, predictable, gets-intercepted-every-damn-time corner pass intended for Marvin Harrison and took it in untouched for the score that made the game 21-3 New England. This was the kind of game I had feared yet somehow expected.

Colts vs. Patriots. New England confident, loose, catching all the breaks and the bounces. Indianapolis tight, nervous, afraid to lose, making crucial mistakes and letting the game get away.

The experts will tell you that Indy's last drive in the first half, where they had to settle for a field goal to cut the score to 21-6 at the break was the key to the game, but I think it was actually the defensive series just prior to that, where the Colts defense prevented the Patriots, already in Colts territory, from scoring another touchdown to run the score up to an insurmountable 28-3. Like they've done throughout the playoffs, the defense came up big when it was do or die.

Band practice fizzled out at halftime. The Colts are my third-favorite NFL team now behind St. Louis (home team) and Minnesota (childhood sweethearts—my original man-crush was for Fran Tarkenton). Our lead guitarist openly wondered whether I should be placed on suicide watch. I drove home in a funk, but I had to stop for gasoline. By the time I paid and returned to my van, the second half had started.

By the time I got home—less than ten minutes driving—the Colts had taken the second-half kickoff and driven down the field for a TD to make it 21-13. One of my closest friends, a guy who watched both of the Rams' NFC Championship victories with me at our old house, had come over to watch the second half of this year's AFC tilt. He was already encamped at the television when I announced, "We're right back in this thing."

I follow Gregg Easterbrook's (ESPN's Tuesday Morning QB) law of "kick early, go for it late," so when Indy scored to make it 21-19, I was hoping to see Vinatieri trot out to bring them within a point. No dice. Manning had his mojo working, and Dungy knew it, so they made the deuce and were officially back from the dead.

The Patriots, however, are more undead and indestructible than Dracula, Freddy and Jason combined. Tom Brady is like the Black Knight in "Monty Python's Holy Grail"; you could chop off his right arm, and he would calmly pick up the ball with his left arm and throw a 50-yard TD pass. Now the battle really began, two titanic teams, a proud champion fending off the desperate but determined challenger. The Patriots scored; the Colts answered. New England field goal; Vinatieri hits one to tie it back up at 31. The Pats drive again, stall, let their unsung rookie kicker—the one who replaced the legend now wearing Colts blue-and-white—put them up by three again.

Four minutes left in the fourth quarter; Colts with the ball. The Patriots defense is tired, lineman standing with hands on hips between plays, the sure sign of fatigue. The Colts should run Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes up the middle and let their O-line beat the defense down, right? Wrong. A couple of incomplete passes results in a quick three-and-out. The Colts are down by three, and they're kicking the ball back to Brady, who'll almost certainly not give it back until the clock's expired.

Wrong again. On third and seven on the ensuing possession, Brady throws up the middle and almost gets picked off by Bob Sanders (no relation), who has nothing but green turf between him and six points. The Patriots punt, and now Manning has 80 yards to tie or go ahead with a bit more than two minutes left to play.

The legends of the past almost seem to stand like ghosts on the sideline, watching Manning. Unitas, Bradshaw, Staubach, Montana, Elway. The heir-apparent is not on the field but on the visitor's sideline. Brady, who can make 60 seconds seem like an eternity. Standing in the shadow of history is Peyton Manning, 240 feet away from destiny.

At this point my heart is literally pounding so hard in my chest that I can feel it with my hand placed over my sternum. I tell my friend, "Win or lose, this is the best football game I've ever seen."

About a minute later, the Colts are up by four. Had they kicked for 20 instead of making the deuce to tie, this TD would have only put them up by three, and Brady could have easily brought his team down to tie and send the game to overtime. Was Dungy a prophet? Or did he simply realize that Brady is never done until the clock reads zeroes? The Patriots got the ball with 56 seconds left. 32 seconds later, they're on the Colts 40, and it's like a bad dream I can't stop having—the Rams, the Panthers, the Eagles, the Chargers, the Colts, all fallen just short, too late. Manning has his head down on the sidelines, unable to watch. I cannot bear to turn away from certain doom.

On the next snap, the miracle. Marlon Jackson (no relation to Tito or Jermaine, I think) does the unthinkable and picks off Brady in the middle of the field. He slides down to his back and starts kicking his legs back and forth like a little kid who's just won his Little League championship. There's just enough time for Manning to come out and kneel out the clock.

The dragon has been slain at last. The unbeatable team has been beaten. The quarterback who has always brought his team back has finally been stopped short. Everest has been scaled. Only one more challenge remains: successfully descending the mountain. That comes this Sunday. But from this point on, when men discuss the greatest championship games of all time, this one will stand in legend as the pinnacle.

NFL Divisional Playoffs

Sorry for missing the Wild Card weekend, but one of my students turned me on to a little computer game called "World of Warcraft." I got a ten-day free trial, and I've been sitting, ashen-faced, slack-jawed and red-eyed in my basement on my laptop for the past 240 hours. No kidding, this freaking thing makes meth look like Diet Coke. Don't get it unless you've just won the lottery or something. I suppose I might actually watch this weekend's games.

Indianapolis at Baltimore
Okay, Manning sucks in the playoffs. There's just no other way to say it. Having admitted that, this feels like one of those unpredictable blowout games for either team. I don't see this as a close game at all, even from the start. If Indy's offense can get rolling and Peyton has one of his 350-yard, four touchdown games, it's not even close. But if he throws picks and their offense can't stop the Ravens' ground game, then it's over by halftime for the Colts. By the way, the Ravens only beat three playoff teams in the regular season, and one of them was Kansas City. They lost to Denver, Carolina and Cincinnati, and Indy beat Denver and Cincy convincingly. Most of the "experts" don't give Indy a chance, and Peyton sucks in the playoffs, and Baltimore's defense is unbeatable. The pick is clear.
Colts 31, Ravens 17

Philadelphia at New Orleans
I've spent the entire season doubting the Saints, but not this week. The Eagles are pretty much out of ammo after perservering through a brutal schedule and an unexpected (and well-deserved) division title. But there's a reason why New Orleans beat Philly, the Giants and the Cowboys soundly in the regular season—head coach Sean Payton knows these teams intimately thanks to his time in the division as a Dallas assistant. Look for the Saints offense to have a big, big celebration, N'Awlin's style.
Saints 38, Eagles 16

Seattle at Chicago
Seattle just sucks. The only reason they're in the playoffs at all is because the Rams sucked just a bit more (two field goals worth, to be exact). They got a gift last week from Tony Romo. They don't belong in this game, and the Bears are going to make them pay. I don't care how bad Rex Grossman has been; the Bears defense is probably going to be good for 2-3 TDs, either directly or by setup. This one won't be close.
Bears 35, Seahawks 10

New England at San Diego
Oh, Belichick's a genius! Oh, Tom Brady is the greatest QB ever! Oh, Marty Schottenheimer can't win in the playoffs. Please. San Diego is the best team in the AFC, and their defense is going to expose the fraud that is the Patriots' offense. They will shut down the run, close down the passing lanes and hit Brady hard over and over again. Belichick can game plan to stop LT all he wants; it doesn't mean he has the players to execute against San Diego's offensive line. First rule of gambling: when everyone is picking the same team, pick the other team (see NCAA BCS Championship).
Chargers 27, Patriots 17

End-of-Year Grades (part two: NFL Midwest teams)

While I am an unapologetic St. Louis homer, I also acknowledge spending ten years in the NFL wilderness while the Gateway city was without an NFL team. In that time, I was already a Minnesota Vikings fan—my first-ever NFL experience was watching Fran Tarkenton play, and I was hooked from that point on—but in between the Deadbirds leaving and the Rams' arrival, I followed two AFC teams identical in proximity to St. Louis: Kansas City and Indianapolis. (I couldn't follow the Bears for the same reason because of their rivalry with Minnesota. I freakin' HATE Chicago and all their stupid teams. Yeah, I even rooted against MJ and the Bulls in '93 when they played the Suns in the finals. Sue me.) So for this, I still follow my surrogate "home town" teams. Divided loyalites? Not at all. I always pull for the Rams first, then the Vikings, but as much as KC and Indy are shown in the southeast Missouri TV market, it's good to have a cheering interest in both of them.

Minnesota Vikings—Final grade: D+
It's just borderline criminal (pardon the pun!) that this Vikings team could so lose its offensive identity in the same year that they rediscovered a Purple People-Eating defense. This unit leads the NFL in run defense. Their offense runs the ball well behind an effective offensive line. Sounds like a recipe for success, right? Except that their pass defense is less-than-mediocre, their secondary is just putrid at times, and they have no downfield scoring threat whatsoever. This is an offense that can't get it done more than five yards at a time, and once you get in the red zone, that just isn't going to cut it. Brad Johnson is a good role-player if you need a dependable backup; he's just not going to lead a team to the playoffs. Tarvaris Jackson should have been starting QB eight weeks ago. This is simply a lost season, and in a weak NFC, that's simply inexcusable.

Kansas City Chiefs—Third Quarter grade: C+
They can upgrade to a B- if they somehow manage to sneak into the final wild card playoff spot, but that seems unlikely given the advantages that Denver, Cincy and the Jets have over them. Herm Edwards probably exceeded expectations for this team; Damon Huard filled in for the injured Trent Green admirably, and Larry Johnson is a man among boys. But this was still Dick Vermeil's team, and they've gone from "veteran" to just "old." Will Carl Peterson decide to rebuild or just try to restock? I think they need to scrap the whole thing, identify their QB of the future and build around that guy and L.J. On the defensive side, KC has always had tough defenses, but the modern blueprint has shifted against from speed to size and strength. They will have to shift likewise to keep up with the AFC's top defenses.

Indianapolis Colts—Third Quarter grade: C-
I understand why so many people don't like Peyton Manning. I always hated John Elway, Joe Montana and Dan Marino when they were in their prime. Hey, I hate Brett Favre when he's on the field, even though I admire his talent and guts, but he plays for an enemy team. I had a hard time learning to cheer for Montana when he was traded to KC because I had spent a decade screaming for his head as he eluded opposition defenses. So I understand that Peyton rubs a lot of people the wrong way. Having said this, anyone who says they would not want him on their team is either a liar or delusional. He's simply the best QB of his generation, and when he's done, he will have broken all of Dan Marino's records. Don't give me Tom Brady, either. If Manning was drafted by the Patriots, he'd have three rings and Brady would be toiling away on some other team. Think Brady would look great in Cleveland? Houston? Arizona?

But here's the thing: this Indianpolis defense is the worst NFL defense I've ever seen. Period. Worse than the expansion Tampa teams of the late 1970s, worse than the 80s-era Cardinals, worse than the worst you can think of. They don't even look interested out there. They can't get off of blocks. They barely attempt to arm tackle. They can't cover receivers. They're gutless, witless and hopeless. If I'm Bill Polian, I tell Tony Dungy he's got one year to fix the defense. Then I fire the D-coord and hire someone from Baltimore like the linebackers or secondary coach, and I spend all my draft picks and most of my free agent dollars on defensive playmakers. Every team in the league has figured out how to beat Peyton Manning: don't let him get on the field. It doesn't matter if he throws four touchdown passes; your four plus a game-winning field goal (e.g., Tennessee, Houston) gets the job done. This team is one-and-done in the playoffs, and everyone knows it. Including Peyton Manning.

Coming tomorrow: Mizzou sports, including Sun Bowl wrap-up

End-of-Year Grades (part one: St. Louis)

St. Louis Cardinals—Final Grade: A
The postseason still lingers like a wonderful dream made all the more wonderful by the fact that it really happened. The end-of-year collapse saw a 7.5 game lead dwindle down to nothing but the sickening thought of the undeserving, underachieving Astros crashing the postseason party one more time at the Cardinals' expense. Then Spezio's miraculous triple against Milwaukee saved us for one more day, the last game of the season. We lost. But so did Houston. The clubhouse claimed the champagne tasted just as sweet, but backing into the playoffs never led to glory.

Then came the Padres, whom LaRussa keeps tucked away in his back pocket. Left coast pretenders. Surf and sun wannabes who couldn't hit a Cardinals pitching staff led by Cy Young ace Chris Carpenter. They were gone in four, leaving a gleeful chorus of Eastcoast Sports Promotion Network "experts" to pick the Mets in four or five.

How many unlikely heroes stepped into the lore of Cardinals legend in the NLCS? So Taguchi, hitting the unlikeliest of homers since Kirk Gibson to win game two. Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver, the journeyman and the reject, both stepping up to shut down the overrated Mets hitters. Yadi Molina, the defensive whiz who was an offensive whiz-in-your-pants all season hit the shot that gave the Cards the chance in game seven, leading to Adam Wainwright's two miraculous strikeouts, the final one coming with two outs and bases loaded. The Cardinals win the pennant! The Cardinals win the pennant! I could still hear Jack Buck urging us all to "go crazy," the voice of God's angel who spoke to me from the time I lay in my crib to the day he was called to the highest of all luxury boxes. At this point, just the pennant would have been enough.

But it wasn't. The World Series was reviled and ignored by the East Coast intelligentsia, odious hypocrites one and all, for if the Cardinals had been the Red Sox, they would have been celebrated as the ultimate team in overcoming adversity. Instead, the Cardinals were condemned as "not belonging" and "undeserving." But as Lou Brown told his Cleveland Indians in "Major League," "I'm for wasting sportwriters' time. Let's see if we can give them all a nice big shit sandwich to eat." Open wide, ESPNers. Anthony Reyes, remarkable. Chris Carpenter, transcendent. Jeff Suppan, reliable. Jeff Weaver, championship. Baseball's Field of Dreams has never really been in an Iowa cornfield; it's found in the shadow of the Arch in downtown St. Louis. We are the champions of the world.

St. Louis Rams—third quarter grade: C+
This season is all about wasted opportunities. This is not a good football team, but it does have some good players—Bulger, Jackson, Holt, Bruce, Little, Wilkins—and some potential for improvement on both sides of the ball. But two blown games to the beatable Seahawks and that putrid roll-over-and-die loss to the excrement that is the Arizona Cardinals is the difference between winning the division and hoping desperately that the Giants, Panthers and Falcons all lose this weekend (certainly within the realm of possibility) while we beat the corpse of the Minnesota Vikings. If this all happens, then we get a wild card game, probably in Seattle, which we could win. I don't foresee the Rams reproducing the Cardinals miracle, but the late season surge does give me some hope that Scott Linehan can still be the right man for the job. Goal #1: Teach Alex Barron how to count and how to remember the correct snap count for 30 seconds at a time.

St. Louis Blues—first quarter grade: C- (up from F)
New head coach Andy Murray is doing remarkable things with this team. I watched a bit of a game from one of Mike Kitchen's last efforts, and the Blues looked like bar league players—slow, sluggish, confused, dispirited. In a memorable shootout loss to Nashville the other night, the Blues went toe-to-toe with the Central Division leaders and came within an inch of gaining the shootout victory. They probably won't make a run at the playoffs this year, but I have a good feeling that Murray is going to turn this Blues team into a club that no one else will want to play in the spring, especially teams who need points to stay in or get in to the playoffs. Legace's looking firm in goal, our veterans are charging the net and the youngsters are playing with speed and passion. I think Dave Checkett's rebuilding effort is starting to pay off.

Coming tomorrow (I promise!): Vikings, Colts & Chiefs

Happy Thanksgiving!

What am I thankful for, sportswise, this Thanksgiving?

The 2006 World Series Champions, the St. Louis Cardinals. El Hombre. Jimmy Baseball. Mighty Mouse. The Speizer. Yadi. Scotty. Carp. Soup. Weaver. Wainwright. Dunc. Don Tony. And a big, sharp stick in the eye of the east coast sports establishment.

The NFL. Peyton Manning, Tony Dungy, Kurt Warner, Dick Vermeil, Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt. Thanksgiving Day football.

I'm thankful that Gary Pinkel has raised expectations for Mizzou football to the point that our 7-4 record is considered a disappointment. I'm thankful that Mike Anderson is teaching Mizzou basketball players how to play defense.

I'm thankful that Tuck still cares about hockey enough to keep me interested. I'm thankful for friends here at home who like to play pick-up two-hand-touch football on Friday afternoons. I'm thankful when one of my kids sits down with me to watch whatever game is on ESPN, regardless of the sport.

I'm thankful we live in a country and a time where things are still good enough that we can care about sports without feeling trivial or guilty about it. And most of all, on a Thanksgiving Day when I'm celebrating 14 years of grateful sobriety, I thank God for all he has given all of us inside and out of the sports world.

Thanksgiving Football Picks
Miami at Detroit
Miami would have been a completely different team with a different QB starting the season--this is patently obvious--but their recent resurgence has more to do with their defense (especially Jason Taylor) playing up to their potential.
Dolphins 24, Lions 14

Tampa Bay at Dallas
Sure, Romo's the real deal at QB, but the Dallas story is their defense. They beat down Indy's receivers and kept Rhodes and Addai from gaining any momentum on the ground, as well as keeping Peyton running (sort of) for his life. Dallas was my early NFC Champ pick (not on this site, though, not after I looked at the records), but in an open division with no clear favorite, I think they have to be second behind Chicago now.
Cowboys 31, Bucs 13

Denver at Kansas City
[comments unavailable to those without NFL Network]
Chiefs 27, Broncos 24

NL MVP Voting
For all the stats that tell the story of why El Hombre should have been the MVP over Philly's Ryan Howard, see Bernie Miklasz's story in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. For my take, it's just this simple: If you were a major league general manager, would you trade Albert Pujols for Ryan Howard, straight up? I didn't think so.

NFL Week Ten: Who the Heck Knows Anymore?

Read Bill Simmons’ column today at espn.com about the topsy-turvy NFL season and how it has made picking winners almost impossible. He expresses all my ideas perfectly. I’m really not even sure what to expect—there’s really no way to expect any type of consistency from anyone other than Arizona, and theirs is bad consistency. You can’t even count on the Colts—they played pretty good defense in beating the Pats last week (and my “man crush” on Peyton Manning only grows!).

Green Bay at Minnesota
I wouldn’t be a Vikings fan if I didn’t pick purple to win at home against the cheese eaters, but I’m sure not confident about it.
Vikings 19, Packers 15

Baltimore at Tennessee
What’s that on the field? Behind the center? No, not the QB, that thing on the QB’s shoulder. What? Oh, that’s Steve McNair’s giant chip for the team that didn’t just throw him out with the trash but put him through the compactor and incinerator first. Gotcha.
Ravens 31, Titans 13

Houston at Jacksonville
The Jags are winning just enough games to stay in the wild card discussion, but their offensive resurgence is due to backup QB David Garrard filling in for injured (and previously ineffective) Byron Leftwich.
Jag-wahrs 34, Texans 10

Kansas City at Miami
Let me get this straight—Herm Edwards coaching Damon Huard has the Chiefs in the playoff hunt? Go figure (and thank Larry Johnson).
Chiefs 27, Dolphins 14

New York Jets at New England
Anyone else think Bradychick is going to take out last week’s Colts frustrations out on the Jets? Me too.
Patriots 30, Jets 7

San Diego at Cincinnati
With all their offseason thug and knucklehead legal problems, it was inevitable that Cincy would suffer on the field. Plus, the O-line is keeping Carson Palmer on his back as often as Madonna in the 1980s (Ba-doom CRASH!).
Chargers 24, Bengals 17

San Francisco at Detroit
I don’t think Detroit is as bad as their record, and they might have found the right chemistry with the new coaching staff. I don’t like Frisco on the road at all.
Lions 28, 49ers 20

Washington at Philadelphia
Who knows? Philly’s coughed up a hairball the past three weeks, while Washington had a big (and unexpected) win over Dallas at home last week. Since logic tells me the Skins have the momentum…
Eagles 24, Redskins 22

Buffalo at Indianapolis
Everyone repeat after me: “I will not doubt Peyton Manning any more during the regular season.”
Colts 37, Bills 23

Cleveland at Atlanta
Can I get the phone number or website address for the “Michael Vick Psychic Hotline” so I can figure out which version will show up this week?
Falcons 26, Browns 19

Denver at Oakland
I should be stupid enough to pick Oakland, what with the way things are going, but not after that wretched game last Monday. How the heck did this group warrant two Monday night games?
Broncos 34, Raiders 6

New Orleans at Pittsburgh
I don’t care about their records—Tuck would never speak to me again if I actually picked the Saints over the Steelers. I just can’t see it happening, anyway. I really think Pittsburgh will put together a decent game this week, and I still don’t believe in the Saints. I just don’t.
Steelers 20, Saints 17

St. Louis at Seattle
I’m 38 years old, I’ve had two knee surgeries, I’m 6 feet tall and weigh 260 pounds, and you know what? I could gain 100 yards against the Rams defense. Only a sucker would take the Rams, outdoors, on the road on the West Coast.
Seahawks 38, Rams 17

Dallas at Arizona
I’ve run out of ways to insult the Deadbirds.
Cowboys 42, Deadbirds 10

Chicago at New York Giants
Home field advantage tips the scales until Rex Grossman shows he can win a big game on the road.
Giants 24, Bears 20

Tampa Bay at Carolina
This looked like a great game at the beginning of the season. I hope ESPN gets the NFL to do that “flex schedule” thing that NBC has with the Sunday night game. My pick this week to replace this boring dog? Chargers-Bengals or Washington-Philly. This game will have all the excitement of televised poker.
Panthers 20, Bucs 6

Last week: 7-7
This season: 84-44 (.656)

NFL Week Eight—Sub .500

Last week was my first sub .500 set of picks this season, so I hope I can get back on track this week. I'll have some final World Series thoughts posted in the next few days, followed by a look ahead at what the Cardinals might do next year. In the meantime, with humility and trepidation, here are this week's picks.

Seattle at Kansas City
Larry Johnson and the Arrowhead crowd tips things in favor of the home team.
Chiefs 26, Seahawks 16
Not as much defense as I would have expected.
KC 35, Seattle 28

San Francisco at Chicago
This one oughta get everyone talking about "undefeated season" again, even though it's not going to happen.
Bears 38, 49ers 9
Just brutal. They should have ended this game at halftime for mercy's sake.
Chicago 41, SF 10

Baltimore at New Orleans
Can we compare Sean Payton, Drew Brees and Reggie Bush to Mike Martz, Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk? Are the 2006 Saints following in the footsteps of the 1999 Rams? This game will test their ability to beat a good defense. On the other hand, the Ravens have no offense at all.
Saints 20, Ravens 13
Can someone please tell me who Baltimore is? I can't figure this team out. I'm still not convinced they're for real, but they just keep winning.
Baltimore 35, NO 22

Houston at Tennessee
I'm going with Jeff Fisher over Gary Kubiak.
Titans 28, Texans 20
And that was a good decision.
Tennessee 28, Houston 22

Arizona at Green Bay
I wonder if Brett Favre is who Denny Green thought he was?
Packers 31, Deadbirds 21
Yes, he was.
GB 31, Arizona 14

Tampa Bay at NY Giants
I'm taking Eli and Tiki at home for the rest of the season. These guys are about to emerge as the best team in the NFC East.
Giants 27, Bucanneers 14
The Giants are now listed as the #4 favorite to win the Superbowl by the Vegas Sports Book. Go figure.
NYG 17, TB 3

Atlanta at Cincinnati
Cincy showed me something last week against Carolina, and I think Carolina's better than Atlanta. The Falcons' offense has also proved inconsistent, so I doubt they'll light it up two weeks in a row.
Bengals 20, Falcons 17
The Bengals are like Buffalo for me this year--I never know what they're going to do, but it's always the opposite of what I expect.
Atlanta 29, Cincy 27

Jacksonville at Philadelphia
The Jags are falling to pieces, while I look for the Eagles to put it back together this week at home.
Eagles 24, Jag-wahrs 13
Wrong, wrong, WRONG!!! THE EAGLES SUCK!!!!!
Jax 13, Philly 6

St. Louis at San Diego
The Rams on the road, outside on the West Coast. See the SF game, suckers.
Chargers 31, Rams 17
You'd have to be stupid not to pick this one right.
SD 38, STL 24

Pittsburgh at Oakland
I don't care if Tommy Maddox is recalled to play QB, Cowher's not losing this game.
Steelers 27, Raiders 7
Just shoot me. But shoot Tuck first, 'cause he can't believe how crappy the Steelers have looked this year.
Oakland 20, Pittsburgh 13

Indianapolis at Denver
I don't feel good about this, but I'm sticking with Peyton as long as I can just to piss off the haters. A Denver win won't surprise me, though.
Colts 24, Broncos 23
I can't mock the haters this week, because Superman's about to meet his kryptonite in Foxboro this Sunday.
Indy 34, Denver 31

New York Jets at Cleveland
Why did the NFL give Cleveland another team? Tradition is one thing, but a sucky team is still a sucky team.
Jets 26, Browns 10
Games like this make picking NFL winners such a frustrating enterprise. I'm just grateful the only thing I'm gambling is my credibility.
Cleveland 20, NYJ 13

Dallas at Carolina
I love watching the Dallas franchise fall apart at the seams. It's the most exquisite schadenfreude.
Panthers 30, Cowboys 7
Carolina has reached Buffalo/Cincinnati proportions for me. They're completely unpredictable--or maybe just not that good.
Dallas 35, Carolina 14

New England at Minnesota
Brad Childress has convinced this Vikings team that they are winners. I'm picking them to take an inconsistent and (so far) untested Pats team down on Monday night.
Vikings 24, Patriots 21
Usually somebody calls the cops when they see a beatdown like the one Bradychick put on the Purple last Monday. I felt like puking by the end of the first quarter. Now we have to face the reality of another @%#$^&*@#%$&! Patriots Superbowl win. To quote Bill Simmons, "I will now light myself on fire."
NE 31, Minnesota 7

This week: 7-7
Last week: 6-7
This season: 70-30 (.700)

NFL Week Seven: The Comeback?

After a monumental 14-0 record in week five, I came back by missing five games before the 3:15 p.m. CDT games even kicked off. Here at The Sandlot, that's just unacceptable. Let's see if the ever-unpredictable NFL decides to realign itself with universal laws of cause and effect.

San Diego at Kansas City
Up-and-coming QB, dominating defense, NFL's best player at RB, meet...the Chefs (no, still not a typo).
Chargers 42, Chefs 9

Jacksonville at Houston
Hey, have I already mentioned how Houston should have drafted Reggie Bush? Somewhere in the world, Sam Bowie is breathing a sigh of relief that he is no longer the stupidest first-round pick in professional sports history (selected over Michael Jordan!). By the way, Chris Berman and the rest of America's pronunciation-challenged announcers: It's "JAG-wahrs," NOT "JAG-wires." (I'm not even going to discuss the pretentious faux-British car commercial announcer who says "JAG-you-are." Ugh!)
JAG-wahrs 31, "Didn't draft Reggie Bush"es, 13

Carolina at Cincinnati
As much as I criticize the Eastcoast Sports Promotion Network for their s0-laughably-obvious-it's-pointless-to-deny East Coast bias in baseball, they also know their stuff rock solid in football (which is less subject to regional bias because of the NFL's competitive balance). The point was made that Cincy's O-line is beat up, which allows defenses to shut down Rudy Johnson in the running game and get pressure on Carson Palmer to disrupt their passing game. They also pointed out the Carolina often starts slow and comes on strong later. In the battle of the big cats, I'll take blue over orange.
Panthers 27, Bengals 17

Detroit at New York Jets
Man, I feel sorry for the regional TV audiences who get stuck watching this dead dog of a game.
Jets 21, Lions 17

Green Bay at Miami
ESPN's "Sports Guy" Bill Simmons writes, "If Brett Favre can't cover a five-point spread against a 1-5 team with Joey Harrington at QB, he needs to retire immediately. And I mean, immediately. Within 10 seconds of the final whistle." I couldn't agree more.
Packers 24, Dolphins 10

New England at Buffalo
Buffalo always does the opposite of what I think they will do, so if I predict them to lose a game they should lose, they usually win. But since I think this is an upset special for Buffalo, then I should pick them to lose. But if I think they will lose, does this mean they will win? I freaking HATE Buffalo for picking purposes!
Patriots 23, Bills 16

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay
I'm just not picking a 1-4 team with an unknown QB to beat the Eagles, who are coming off a tough road loss. If I'm wrong, so be it, but I'm sticking with Philly until they give me another reason not to.
Eagles 17, Bucs 13

Pittsburgh at Atlanta
Since no one can run effectively on Pittsburgh's defense, and Atlanta can't do anything offensively other than run, I'm taking the team that's rising upward over the one who's falling back to the pack.
Steelers 23, Falcons 16

Denver at Cleveland
Denver's winning again because they're letting their defense dominate while keeping it simple on offense so Plummer's not put in the position to make his characteristic killer mistakes. This formula will continue to work against a terminally mediocre team like Cleveland.
Broncos 24, Browns 6

Arizona at Oakland
Denny Green's probably threatened to kill and eat raw the entire team if they lose this game. Expect Matt Leinart to have a huge day against the putrid Oakland secondary.
Deadbirds 31, Dead Pirates 21

Minnesota at Seattle
No, I'm not picking against Hasselbeck at home. It doesn't even matter how well the Vikings' defense plays, because this team is incapable of scoring offensive touchdowns. I like Brad Johnson as a backup, but he's not taking this team anywhere except next year's draft.
Seahawks 28, Vikings 9

Washington at Indianapolis
Peyton Manning, haters. Washington is starting TWO backups at cornerback. That ought to be good for at least 4-5 TD passes.
Colts 41, Redskins 17

New York Giants at Dallas
I don't even know what to make of this one. Heads, Dallas; Tails, Giants. (flipping coin) Okay, it was tails.
Giants 24, Dallas 21

My Game Seven Prediction (postgame update)

Sometimes I love it when I'm wrong. The icing on the cake is that the Fox Sports brass is already bemoaning their deflated WS ratings while the "experts" at the Eastcoast Sports Promotion Network are still trying to figure out how Suppan and Weaver beat their beloved Mets.

GO CARDINALS!

Mets. (wrong!)

Why?

If you've learned anything from my blog, it's this:

My team always loses. (except for tonight!)

Go Detroit! (Go down in flames!)

NFL Week Six Picks (and what we learned)

Houston at Dallas
This ought to put off the “yank Drew Bledsoe” chatter off of sports radio for at least another week. Houston is just a terrible team.
Cowboys 33, Texans 9
Cowboys 34, Texans 6--we learned that Dallas can beat up a bad team.

Philadelphia at New Orleans
I expect the Saints to play another tough game at home, but Philly’s just got too much on both sides of the ball.
Eagles 27, Saints 17
Saints 27, Eagles 24--we learned that the Saints are for real, and that Philly doesn't have enough playmakers to be a championship team.

Seattle at St. Louis
No Shawn Alexander? Look for a steady diet of blitzes on Matt Hasselbeck, as well as a good day for Marc Bulger and the Rams receivers at home. If Scott Linehan can figure out how to consistently get the ball into the end zone, watch out for the Rams to start scoring lots of points.
Rams 24, Seahawks 20
Seahawks 30, Rams 28--we learned that Josh Brown could probably kick a 65-yard FG indoors, that Matt Hasselbeck doesn't need a running game, that the Rams pass defense sucks and that the Rams are still second-class citizens in the NFL for right now.

New York Giants at Atlanta
I like Vick and Dunn at home better than Eli and Tiki on the road, but I’m not real confident about the pick. This game could easily go either way.
Falcons 20, Giants 17
Giants 27, Atlanta 14--we learned how to stop Atlanta's running game and that Eli's going to be an elite QB very soon.

Tennessee at Washington
Jeff Fisher deserves a better team than the one he has; Joe Gibbs should have done a lot more with the team he has.
Redskins 30, Titans 14
Titans 25, Redskins 22--we learned that Jeff Fisher is a better coach than Joe Gibbs, and maybe the Titans weren't wrong to draft Vince Young.

Buffalo at Detroit
I should pick Buffalo, but the Bills never do what I pick, so I’m going to hope the Lions finally get it together on both sides of the ball this week (but don’t count on it).
Lions 27, Bills 24
Lions 20, Bills 17--we learned that I can pick a correct point spread from time to time.

Carolina at Baltimore
Both teams have good defenses, and Baltimore’s is probably a bit better, but Carolina’s offense is miles better than the Ravens, so I’m going blue over black-and-blue.
Panthers 17, Ravens 10
Panthers 23, Ravens 21--we learned that maybe Kyle Boller wasn't the problem with the Baltimore offense, and that Carolina's the most dangerous team in the NFC.

Cincinnati at Tampa Bay
I look for Cincy to bounce back big after a tough loss and a bye week to put together a game plan.
Bengals 31, Bucs 20
Bucs 14, Bengals 13--We learned that Cincy was overrated from the start this year, and maybe Carson Palmer came back too soon from his knee injury.

San Diego at San Francisco
Well, this doesn’t hardly seem fair, now, does it?
Chargers 38, 49ers 7
Chargers 48, 49ers 19--we learned that Phillip Rivers is a potential star, and SD is the one team no one wants to play.

Kansas City at Pittsburgh
I don’t like KC on the road with a backup QB against a defending championship team that will be nothing short of desperate for a win this week.
Steelers 23, Chiefs 13
Steelers 45, Chefs 7 (not a typo!)--we learned that Big Ben's not dead yet.

Miami at New York Jets
Man, do I feel stupid for picking Miami to win the AFC East. I’m not sure they can win four games this season.
Jets 28, Dolphins 6
Jets 20, Dolphins 17--we learned that the Jets suck only slightly less than Miami.

Oakland at Denver
All the pejoratives have been exhausted to describe this putrid Raiders team.
Broncos 27, Raiders 3
Broncos 13, Raiders 3--we learned that the Broncos don't have enough offense to go to the Superbowl this year, regardless of how well their defense plays.

Chicago at Arizona
Oh, the cruelties of the NFL scheduling system…
Bears 49, Cardinals 0
Bears 24, Cardinals 23--we learned to stop comparing this Bears team to 1985, and we were reminded that Bill Bidwell's Deadbirds will always find a way to lose. They don't just need change of ownership; they need an exorcism.

This week: 8-5
Last week: 14-0
Season: 64-23 (.736)

NFL Week Five Picks: Home Cookin'

Almost nothing but home teams on my pick list except for the two Missouri teams, both of whom are playing bad 1-3 teams on the road. I went with a bunch of road winners in week one, so maybe this set will do as well. Frankly, it's hard to pick against the home teams this week due to the matchups. On with the picks...

St. Louis at Green Bay
I went back and forth on this one. If the Rams offense reverts back to form and Favre has a big day against the Rams' secondary, the Pack could take this one. On the other hand, Favre is hurt, his O-line stinks, and their defense is really, really bad. I think either way you look at it, the odds are in St. Louis' favor. Hopefully last week's scoring binge blew the cobwebs out of the passing game. Note to Jim Haslett: Blitz early, blitz often.
Rams 29, Packers 17

Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Even with an expected loss at Carolina, the Saints didn't show as much of a letdown as most people expected, and if a couple of breaks go their way, they beat Carolina and sit at 4-0. As it stands, they should be able to beat a Tampa team with no proven QB and the rest of its parts in disarray.
Saints 24, Bucs 10

Tennessee at Indianapolis
The only thing of interest in this game is the over-under on Colts points.
Colts 42, Titans 6

Detroit at Minnesota
Another game I can't decide without the flip of a coin. The Vikings offense has been nonexistent so far, but their defense has been solid, so I think they'll run on the Lions' D, control the clock and grind out another low-scoring win. I like Brad Johnson, but he's got to lead this team into the end zone if they want to be relevant this year.
Vikings 17, Lions 13

Buffalo at Chicago
They should institute a mercy-rule clause for this one.
Bears 38, Bills 0

Washington at New York Giants
Brunell and Portis looked good last week beating Jacksonville, but I'm also beginning to wonder if Jax's first few games weren't an aberration caused by the fact that offenses usually start much slower in the early weeks of the season. I think Coughlin, Eli and Tiki all right the Giants' ship this week with a tough victory in a close game.
Giants 27, Redskins 24

Cleveland at Carolina
How come Carolina gets to play a schedule that looks like the first few weeks of the D-1 college football schedule? How about some freakin' competition already? Cleveland! Sheesh!
Panthers 31, Browns 13

Miami at New England
This game is simply cruel and unfair. Oh, well.
Patriots 35, Dolphins 3

Oakland at San Francisco
The Niners looked really bad on the road against the Chiefs, but the Chiefs were coming off a bye week and still pissed about the Cincy game. Frisco's played pretty good at home, and the Raiders are on the verge of total disintegration.
49ers 37, Raiders 14

Kansas City at Arizona
Matt Leinert will get his first start at the Pink Taco, but Herm Edwards should have the KC defense thirsty for rookie blood. As long as they can tackle Edge James, they should be able to bust through that terrible Arizona O-line and make Matt's day just miserable. Damon Huard looked more than competent as Trent Green's placeholder last week.
Chiefs 30, Cardinals 16

New York Jets at Jacksonville
The Jags have one more game--this one--to prove to me I wasn't right about them in the first place with my preseason preview. I don't believe they'll lose a third straight, though, any more than I believe the Jets can have two quality road games in a row. I'm not confident about this pick, but I'm less confident in the Jets' ability to win in the Jags' house.
Jaguars 23, Jets 19

Dallas at Philadelphia
This is such a grudge match, it feels like it should be on Pay-Per-View. I don't think the real story here is T.O. I think it's about how an aggressive Philly defense will be able to stop the Dallas run and pressure immobile Dallas QB Drew Bledsoe into taking costly sacks and making ill-advised passes that get picked off. This will be a low-scoring defensive struggle that will ultimately come down to turnovers, and I see Philly on the plus side.
Eagles 24, Cowboys 20

Pittsburgh at San Diego
Pittsburgh is coming off a bye week, which should be good for Big Ben at QB, but they're playing in San Diego, who should be doubly-motivated after a stupid, unnecessary loss last week against the Ravens. Look for another low-scoring defensive gem, but the Chargers just have more offensive weapons at this point--as long as Rivers doesn't throw untimely picks again.
Chargers 20, Steelers 13

Baltimore at Denver
I still don't think Baltimore is for real, but they get their chance to prove it at Mile High this Monday night. If Shanahan could figure out the N.E. defense, I think he can beat these guys, too.
Broncos 20, Ravens 13

Last week: 9-5
Season 42-18 (.700)

NFL, end of First Quarter

Lots of people like to do power polls for the NFL. Why bother? What matters is the standings and who gets into the playoffs. After the first four weeks, here's what we have to work with:

NFC
1) Chicago Bears (4-0, lead North)
2) Seattle Seahawks (3-1, lead West)
3) New Orleans Saints (3-1, lead South)
4) Philadelphia Eagles (3-1, lead East)
5) Atlanta Falcons (3-1, 2nd in South)
6) St. Louis Rams (3-1, 2nd in West)

The Bears are the overwhelming favorite to secure home field advantage, and in a few weeks, people will start comparing them (wrongly) to the 1985 team (the best football team ever in the history of the NFL, and we will NOT discuss it) and start asking the inevitable 1972 Dolphins question. Seattle will need to show that they can win on the road without Shawn Alexander. The Saints will fall back behind Carolina (who's getting healthy) and Atlanta. The Eagles can consolidate power in the East by beating the now doubly-hated Cowboys (as if they needed further reason to hate anything in Philly). The Falcons will compete with Carolina for the South title. The Rams have to prove that they can win on the road and that their offense can produce like it did against a bad Lions defense when it faces better competition. Right now, I can only designate Chicago and Seattle as sure-fire playoff locks; Philly and Atlanta look good; I don't see New Orleans or St. Louis staying in playoff contention.

AFC
1) Indianapolis Colts (4-0, leading South)
2) Baltimore Ravens (4-0, leading North)
3) New England Patriots (3-1, leading East)
4) Denver Broncos (2-1, leading West)
5) Cincinnati Bengals (3-1, 2nd in North)
6) San Diego Chargers (2-1, 2nd in West)

Indy's a lead-pipe cinch to clinch home-field advantage for the entire playoffs; I don't see them losing more than 2 or 3 games all season. They have already shown a toughness and resiliency in the past two weeks that we haven't seen in the past. The Ravens can't be for real, can they? Sure, their defense is great again, but can they really limit opponents to less than 16 points each week? I'm still not convinced. New England is Jason Voorhees, Mike Myers and Freddy Kruger all rolled up in one. Just when you think they're dead, they jump back up and kill you. They'll win that crummy division because of the crummy competition. The Broncos won't win more than 9 games with Plummer at QB, so they'll fall back. Cincy got cocky and got knocked in the dirt against N.E.; we'll see if it helps them grow up or throw up. I still think the Chargers will win the West. All six teams have a legit shot to make the playoffs, with Indy and N.E. locks, Cincy and S.D. better than 75% chance, Baltimore and Denver less than 50% chance. We'll take another look at the state of the league after halftime--week 8.