NFL Week Two: Let's not get too excited...

There's always a tendency to overreact to both good and bad performances. Friends assume that because the Vikings, Colts and Rams all lost last week that I'm already giving up on the season. Please. Sixteen weeks is a long time, and there are about 1,000 different things that can happen. November and December is much more important than September and October. Most offenses are still not in sync in the first three or four weeks, and injuries are always a factor. So let's take the season one week at a time, and that leads us to Week Two...on with the picks!

Arizona at Atlanta
Atlanta couldn't do much against the Pittsburgh defense, and Arizona's coaching staff comes from Arizona. Neither one of these teams really excites me, but 'Zona played a good road game last week at St. Louis, so I'm sticking with the Gridbirds this week.
Cardinals 24, Falcons 13 WRONG!

Baltimore at Cincinnati
Baltimore's defense is getting older, but they're still nasty-tough. Cincy's offense is getting older and just nasty.
Ravens 17, Bengals 7 WRONG!

Kansas City at Cleveland
Every season, there's one team that moves from the outhouse to the penthouse. Could KC be that team? To be great, you need to crush inferior opponents and win games like these, especially on the road. Even if they're not this season's movers, after Cleveland's performance last week, there's no way I'm picking them.
Chiefs 21, Browns 10 GOT IT!

Chicago at Dallas
Two teams that are vastly overrated, but I can't see Jay Cutler beating Dallas' defense in the Lone Star State.
Cowboys 20, Bears 13 WRONG!

Philadelphia at Detroit
Michael Vick almost came back last week to be Green Bay; Detroit's not nearly as good as Green Bay. Advantage: Philly.
Eagles 27, Lions 17 GOT IT!

Buffalo at Green Bay
There should be a mercy rule on this one. What's the record for most TD passes in one game? (checking...) Seven, done five times, most recently by Joe Kapp of the Vikings in 1969. I'm taking Rodgers for eight, then.
Packers 56, Bills 0 GOT IT!

Pittsburgh at Tennessee
Chris Johnson is just superhuman. And hey, why not award the now-vacated Heisman Trophy to runner-up Vince Young? It's a popularity contest anyway, so let's treat it accordingly.
Titans 24, Steelers 10 WRONG!

Miami at Minnesota
Someone want to explain to me why, other than Brett Favre backlash, so many people like Miami in the Metrodome this Sunday? I mean, Bill Simmons is a freakin' idiot, so his pick didn't surprise me, but this is a no-brainer. The 'Fins only scored 15 against Buffalo, and they're easily the worst team in the league. Let me set you all straight...
Vikings 38, Dolphins 16 WRONG!

Tampa Bay at Carolina
If this were the only game on TV this Sunday, I'd just have to watch golf...or NASCAR...or three hours of cooking gadget informercials. Ugh. I have to pick one? Only because I have to...
Panthers 13, Bucs 9 WRONG!

Seattle at Denver
Last week confirmed what I suspected—Pete Carroll's been waiting a LONG time to have another chance in the NFL, and he's not going to waste it. Plus, Kyle Orton still stinks and Josh McDaniel is overrated, as is Denver in general. However, Denver's still a big home field advantage, and I need to see Seattle win big more than once before I'll believe they're real.
Broncos 27, Seahawks 23 GOT IT!

St. Louis at Oakland
The Rams really should have beaten Arizona last week; except for that dropped fumble return, that's a Rams win. Plus, Oakland is just terrible. I'm still drinking the Bradford Kool-Aid.
Rams 20, Raiders 17 WRONG!

New England at New York Jets
You know someone who talks a lot but never backs it up? Especially when it counts? And then that other guy, the one who almost never says anything because he never needs to because he's too busy kicking so much ass? Well, watch this game and you will.
Patriots 34, Jets 9 WRONG!

Jacksonville at San Diego
This is a classic week one overreaction game. Jax isn't as good as they looked against Denver, and SD's not as bad as they looked in KC. This week you have the Bolts at home and Jax suffering from jet lag.
Chargers 23, Jags 17 GOT IT!

Houston at Washington
Big potential for an giant emotional letdown for Houston this week, but Washington didn't look very good at all last week, and this whole Albert Haynesworth thing is going to wreck their clubhouse soon. Tip for 'Skins defense: tackle the guy with "Foster" on his jersey, if you can.
Texans 30, Skins 10 GOT IT!

New York Giants at Indianapolis
Let's make it simple: Who wins, older brother or younger brother. That's what I thought.
Peyton 33, Eli 21 GOT IT!

New Orleans at San Francisco
You know what? This week, I WILL wear the "Who Dat?!" cape. Remember, I hate the 49ers!
Saints 31, Niners 14 GOT IT!

This week: 8-8
Last week: 11-5
This season: 19-13 (.594)

NFL? I'm just not feelin' it.../TUESDAY APOLOGY

I mean, how would you feel in my place? My three favorite teams are Minnesota, Indianapolis and St. Louis. 1-15, lost the NFC Championship they should have won, lost the Superbowl they should have won. On top of that, we have the Sword-of-Damocles-like prospect of a work stoppage due to labor strife next season, a pre-season expert consensus of Green Bay vs. New York Jets in the Superbowl (and I won't even watch the commercials for THAT one), and a preseason prediction pileup so baffling that I can't even venture a guess on who will even make the playoffs, much less conference championships or the Superbowl. I suppose after this week I'll pick eight teams from each conference who I think have a chance at the playoffs. Until then, I will continue the weekly Sandlot tradition of game-by-game picks. I'm not excited about the football season, but at least it means that baseball is almost over. As always, these are my official picks entered in the "Pigskin Pick'em" contest at espn.com.

Minnesota at New Orleans
Already picked the Saints to win last night, which they did. Go ahead and kick me when I'm down. I can't believe I have to listen this craptastic Katrina redemption championship story for the next five months.
Saints 14, Vikings 9 (final)

Miami at Buffalo
Buffalo still has a team? Really? Huh...
Dolphins 31, Bills 6 [MIA 15 BUF 10]
I feel sorry for anyone who actually had to watch this game.

Detroit at Chicago
I'm so old, I remember when this was a game to look forward to.
Bears 13, Lions 9 [CHI 19 DET 14]
Don't care what the stupid rules say; Detroit got totally hosed on this one. Oh yeah, and Jay Cutler still sucks.

Oakland at Tennessee
If I owned a football team, I'd pay Jeff Fisher whatever he wanted to be my head coach.
Titans 24, Raiders 14 [TEN 38 OAK 13]
This was just too easy...

Cincinnati at New England
Brady's had a year to rehab his knee, so he should be good to go, which is bad news for everyone else in the league.
Patriots 31, Bengals 27 [NE 38 CIN 24]
They're BAAAAA-AAAAAACK!!!

Carolina at NY Giants
I hate Carolina. I don't know why, but I just hate everything about this franchise.
Giants 23, Panthers 13 [NYG 31 CAR 18]
Well, at least one of the Mannings won; that's something I guess...

Atlanta at Pittsburgh
Steelers fans, are you really excited about Dennis Dixon? Let me repeat that: Dennis Dixon? I didn't think so.
Falcons 24, Steelers 17 [PIT 15 ATL 9]
Will someone please remind me not to go against the Steelers at home against the NFC again?

Cleveland at Tampa Bay
Yeah, I know it's Jake Delhomigod he just threw another pick, but Tampa is just cover-your-eyes awful, and did they add anyone at all in the offseason?
Browns 13, Bucs 10 [TB 17 CLE 14]
Oh wait, you meant CLEVELAND, didn't you? Ugh...

Denver at Jacksonville
Flip a coin with either of these teams, but I think this whole Tebow thing is going to make good things happen for Denver, even if it's just his enthusiasm rubbing off on the rest of the team. I also have a hard time seeing Jax shake off the malaise of an utterly disinterested fan base.
Broncos 17, Jags 13 [JAX 24 DEN 17]
Why, oh why do I ever believe in Denver?

Indy at Houston
Someday Houston has to be able to hold a three-touchdown lead in the fourth quarter against the Colts, right? Well, I'm counting this as the official Superbowl hangover letdown game...unless all it did was piss off Peyton so much he's determined to take them back again...see why I can't get a handle on this season?
Texans 33, Colts 31 [HOU 34 IND 24]
Sometimes I just hate it when I'm right.

San Francisco at Seattle
Just because I freaking HATE San Fran; always have, always will. I had a hard time cheering for Joe Montana when he came over to KC just because I spent so many years hating him in SF. Did I mention that I HATE SAN FRANCISCO?!?!?!?
Seahawks 49, 49ers 0 [SEA 31 KC 6]
Nelson Muntz: "HAA-HA!!!"

Green Bay at Philadelphia
Aaron Rogers is Jesus Christ and the Packers will win the Superbowl. Happy? Can you just leave me alone now?!?!?!?!?!!!
Packers 38, Eagles 24 [GB 27 PHI 20]
Now we know why Philly didn't trade away Mike Vick.

Arizona at St. Louis
I'm drinking the Sam Bradford Kool-Aid. I'm not just sipping it. I'm not just drinking a big glass of it. I'm sticking my head right down into the cooler and swallowing gigantic gulps of its cold, fruity goodness. Sam Bradford, Boomer Sooner, the savior of St. Louis football. Hey, after 1-15 and watching my big boys fall, I want the Kool-Aid. I need the Kool-Aid. Let me drink my Kool-Aid in peace, my friends.
Rams 28, Cardinals 24 [ARZ 17 STL 13]
For God's sake, Rams, trade for or sign a big-time receiver, right now!

Dallas at Washington
Why the 'Skins? Because of Donovan McNabb and Mike Shanahan. And because I won't ever jump on the Dallas bandwagon. I wouldn't do it in 1978, and I'm sure not going to do it now.
'Skins 20, Cowboys 17 [WSH 13 DAL 7]
What a boring game—virtually unwatchable

Baltimore at NY Jets
I missed the game in my predictions, but I picked it right in the pool.
Ravens 10, Jets 9

San Diego at Kansas City
Are we still sure that Phillip Rivers is God and Norv Turner really can take a team far into the playoffs? Because I keep hearing the tune but I never get to see the dance. Meh, it's still the Chefs, tho, so I guess this seems like a safe pick.
Chargers 24, Chefs 10 [KC 21 SD 14]
Way to go, KC. I hate the Chargers, too.

This season: 11-5 (.688)
Last season: On suicide watch through the end of March

...and fight for old Mizzou!

This is as close as it gets to a college football preview for me, because without a playoff system, there's no legitimate championship. The BCS system is like major league baseball saying that the only teams who get to play in the world series are the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies or Dodgers; no one else even gets a chance, regardless of their record. Sorry, Alabama, but you didn't win a national championship—you just won a bowl game, like everyone else.

Having said that, Mizzou is completely off the national radar this year, which I think is just excellent. After several years of hype, one glorious week at number one, and a lifetime of utter futility against Oklahoma, no one is paying attention to Missouri's football program. As far as the national press is concerned, the only team in the Big 12 North is Nebraska, and they're moving to the Big 10 (?!) next year. (Hate to see you go, don't let the door hit you in the butt on the way out, hope to never see you again, blank you very much.)

The problem with Missouri has always been expectations, and although this hold true for basketball as well as football, at least the basketball team has had some legitimately great teams. The same can't be said for football, even during Chase Daniel's glorious career. The team that beat Kansas and spent a week at #1 in the polls didn't play Oklahoma during the regular season, and they got stomped by the Sooners the very next week in the Big 12 (?!) championship.

The hard, cold reality that Mizzou fans have to accept is that we are a mid-major program, which explains our recent success with mid-major coach Gary Pinkel. Missouri is never, ever, ever going to be the kind of football program that can compete with Oklahoma or Texas, never mind Florida, Alabama, LSU, USC or Ohio State. It's simply a matter of reality. Some things just are the way they are. Winona Ryder's cute, but she's not ever going to have Julia Roberts' career. Life's not fair, and neither is football.

Once we accept that as reality, we can enjoy what should be a very nice season. I'm excited to see what Blane Gabbert can do with a year's experience under his chinstrap and two healthy ankles. After tomorrow's game in St. Louis against Illinois, we have three home games against mid-majors followed by the Big 12 (?!) opener against Pac-10 defectors Colorado. I think that game should be an opportunity to take out some serious conference realignment frustrations on the Buffaloes, who should still be awful this season. So we're looking realistically at a 5-0 start, 4-1 at the worst.

The next four weeks are just brutal. At Texas A&M, always a difficult road game for anyone. (I dated a girl in college who lived in Austin and hated the Aggies; she called their pre-game student activities "Hitler Youth Rallies.") Then its back to Columbia for the annual beatdown at the hands of the Sooners, off to Lincoln for another humiliation at the hands of the most smug, insufferable, repulsive fans in any sport, then back to Texas to watch our defense get spun like a piñata by Texas Tech's indefensible spread offense. Going 2-2 in that stretch would be a miracle, and that's only if we can win two road games in Texas. 0-4 is more likely.

The back half of the schedule is favorable; K-State, Iowa State, Kansas. I think we can expect at least 7-8 wins and a modest bowl appearance, which we'll lose to an inferior opponent, just like we usually do. That's Mizzou football, folks. But I was in Columbia from 1986 through 1992 and suffered through 1-11, 2-10, 3-9 seasons. Seven or eight wins and a bowl game is great. This is like Christmas; don't complain about rankings or BCS. That's for the big boys. For us, good enough is good enough.

Don't bother to turn in your Cy Young ballot...

So, can we assume Lincecum just locked up another NL Cy Young?


I mean, it's not anything like last year, is it?


Funny, I was just about to tamp down the dirt on the Cardinals grave today.

(Thanks to TUCK! for another great baseball cartoon. Go see all his toons at http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/authors/tuck/2010/)

That Terry Pendleton Moment

Some of you may have noticed that I've not written about the Cardinals-Reds series that concluded yesterday. I wanted to wait until the whole thing was over and take it all in. It's too easy to look at just one game and read more significance into it than is warranted, and that's true of this series as well. After a dispiriting extra-inning loss in Florida and the Cardinals dismal road record of late, I wasn't optimistic about our chances. Before the series started, I was hoping for that Terry Pendleton moment.

Back in 1987, the Cardinals spent much of the season in front of the old NL East (there were only two divisions then), but the hated NY Mets (Pond Scum) were close on our heels, and we were going in different directions. The Cardinals were struggling and inconsistent, while the Mets (Pond Scum) were ripping off winning streaks and closing the gap day by day. The Cardinals traveled to Shea Stadium (garbage landfill) for a pivotal three-game series.

Essentially, if the Mets (Pond Scum) won the series, they most likely would have taken the division. The Cardinals were down or tied late in the game (I don't remember if it was the first or second game of the series) when third baseman Terry Pendleton came to the plate and hit a home run right into that stupid top hat out in center field. The Cardinals won the game, pulled away from the Mets (Pond Scum) and eventually won the NL pennant in 1987.

Not only did this series provide us with a Terry Pendleton moment, it gave us no less than three: 1) Skip Shumaker's grand slam in game one; 2) Yadier Molina's line in the sand to boneheaded loudmouth Brandon Phillips in game two; 3) Colby Rasmus's grand slam in game three. Three unlikely and pivotal actions that could, when we look back on the season, mark the turning point when the Cardinals separated themselves from the Reds.

It's easy to put the blame on Phillips for instigating this uprising, but one thing is certain: the Cardinals have been inconsistent to the point of baffling, especially in key games and big moments. We knew that the Cardinals had the talent to rise to the occasion, but they had already failed in moments like these previously this season. So what was the difference?

Here's what I think: Tony LaRussa hates Dusty Baker, and Dusty hates Tony. I don't think Phillips said what he said out of turn. I even think Baker approved of him calling the Cardinals "little bitches." Tony's an animal lover, so this was a shot directly at the Cards manager, as well as questioning the manhood of the Cardinals players. Have we seen three games in a row where almost every player (except Brendan Ryan, who's a putz) was so intense and focused? Does anyone else fear meeting Chris Carpenter in a dark alley (other than Brendan Ryan, who's a putz)? Is anyone else reminded of a mafia don when LaRussa gives off that dark scowl he does so well? Why on earth would the Reds have gone down this particular dark alley?

Here's why: When you haven't done anything before, you talk. When you're champions, you don't talk, you play. The Reds did all the talking, but the Cardinals hit, pitched, fielded and fought harder. This whole series revealed the character of each team. The sprint to the finish will reveal whether this series truly was this year's Terry Pendleton moment.

Tiger Woods needs to go away

For now, Tiger Woods' golf career, as it once was, is over. Scores that would inspire me to gold-plate at frame my card (under 80!) are the same that put Tiger at 78th place after the third round at the Bridgestone tournament. Despite what you might have thought about today's headline, I still like Tiger. As a husband, he acted like a complete turd, and it's going to cost him hundreds of millions of dollars. But the stress of having his personal life turned inside out for the whole world to see (also deserved) has destroyed his golf game, so I'm offering my friendly advice: Go away.

Politely tell the PGA that you're taking the rest of this year (including the PGA Championship and the Ryder Cup) as well as next year off. You're not playing any more golf at a professional level until 2011.

Tell Nike (your only sponsor left) that you're not doing any more commercials this year or next year. Tell them to give the money from your endorsed products to your kids. Just do it: go away.

Tell Elin she can have whatever she wants—money, houses, etc., then sign the papers and give her a private cell phone number that only she and the kids can use, then pack a small suitcase and head to the airport.

Finish growing that beard and shave your head bald and put on some sunglasses and take a plane to somewhere in Africa or Asia where they don't have televisions, internet or golf courses and figure out who Eldrick Woods, Jr. is before you try to come back and be Tiger again.

Go away and go to spend some time with monks in ancient Buddhist temples. Go serve with relief workers in Africa and help deliver food and water to desperate villages. Walk along the Great Wall of China. Go fishing in Thailand. Go walk around Ayers Rock in Australia. Get away from the tabloids, the sports reporters, the gossip, the girlfriends, and most especially, get the hell away from the golf course. Go away and don't come back until you have to come back.

Don't come back for the expectations, or the money, or the all-time records, or even because you think you owe it to the fans or the game. Don't come back until you just have to come back because the desire to be the best golfer the world has ever seen burns inside you like an unquenchable flame.

If that never happens, then don't come back, because we just can't stand seeing you like this.

My Favorite Baseball Movies

The Cardinals have a day off, there's no new Brett Favre news, and it's still too hot to get seriously excited about football just yet. So here's the first in a series of posts about sports movies: My starting lineup of my nine favorite baseball movies.

9. "The Final Season"—Most people have never heard about this movie, but it's about a championship Iowa high school baseball team who plays their last season before their school in consolidated into a larger district. It's cheesy and predictable, but it also starts Sean Astin, a.k.a. Rudy Ruettiger, so you know it's going to be inspirational. It is!

8. "The Rookie"—There's just something really believable about Dennis Quaid playing this role. Bonus points for the fact that it's a true story, which makes it even cooler. And yeah, the little kid is Jake from "Two-and-a-Half Men."

7. "The Bad News Bears"—What a classic cast: Walter Matthau as the drunken grouch, Tatum O'Neal as the awesome girl pitcher, Jackie Earle Haley as Kelly Leak, and of course, the immortal Tanner Boyle, played by Chris Barnes, the most memorably foul-mouthed kid you've ever known. All the sequels and the remake were just pale imitations of this classic.

6. "A League of Their Own"—This one is best watched on DVD so you can skip the beginning and get right to the scenes with Tom Hanks and Geena Davis. They have a genuine chemistry as the washed-up drunken coach and the star catcher that most real baseball teams wish they had. Plus, if you don't get a little choked up at the end, you have a grinchy heart.

5. "The Sandlot"—My favorite scene is the one where the rich kids challenge the Sandlot team to a game on their fancy field, and the Sandlot kids just beat their brains in. That just warms my socialist heart all the way down to the red part.

4. "The Natural"—I don't care about the rest of the movie; I just want to watch the last scene when Roy Hobbs (Robert Redford) comes to bat with the game on the line, breaks his "Wonderboy" bat, then hits one into the lights. The music and the drama of that final scene always brings tears to my eyes.

3. "Major League"—The most quotable of all baseball movies..."JUUUUST a bit outside." "Hats for bats." "You may run like Mays, but you hit like s***." "Nice catch Mays. Don't ever freakin' do it again." "Too high! Too high!" "Swing, and Heywood hits one toward South America; Tomlinson's gonna need a visa to catch this one." "Heywood's a convicted felon, isn't he, Monty?" "Up your butt, Jobu!" Bob Uecker should have been nominated for an Oscar for this one.

2. "Bull Durham." I'm gonna let Crash Davis speak for me on this one: "Well, I believe in the soul, the small of a woman's back, the hanging curve ball, high fiber, good scotch, that the novels of Susan Sontag are self-indulgent, overrated crap. I believe Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone. I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing Astroturf and the designated hitter. I believe in the sweet spot, soft-core pornography, opening your presents Christmas morning rather than Christmas Eve and I believe in long, slow, deep, soft, wet kisses that last three days."

1. "Field of Dreams" I've actually been to the real-life field in Iowa, thanks to my good friend Wags. It's an amazing experience to see it for real. As far as the movie goes, I completely agree with ESPN's Bill Simmons: "There are two kinds of people: those who love 'Field of Dreams,' and those who have no heart."

Vikings After Favre

So, is Brett Favre really retiring? Even if he says he is, he's gone so far beyond "the boy who cried wolf" that no one will seriously believe him until he watches an entire season from his sofa in Mississippi. I've already considered that there's no way he has the kind of season he had last year, so even if he does return, it's hard to believe he can take the Vikes back to the NFC Championship. But what if this news is real? What can the Vikings look forward to?

Scenario A: Tarvaris Jackson grows up
This, I think, is the most unlikely scenario. Vikings fans remember two years ago, when the Eagles were practically giving a playoff game away, and all T-Jack could do is throw the ball into the carpet like a toddler pitching lawn darts. But who knows? Maybe a year watching Favre and getting hungry for not only that kind of success on the field but the kind of "hooray, our savior has arrived" reception that Purple Nation gave Favre will enable him to take his game to a new level. He certainly has enough weapons at his disposal—but can he lead, and more important, can he make the big throws?

Scenario B: Vikings play smashmouth football
Last year, many experts thought Favre would be a play-it-safe game manager whose main job was to hand the ball off to Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor. Without Favre, that may be T-Jack's main role as QB. With middle linebacker E.J. Henderson coming back from injury, the defense gets tougher up the middle, freeing up Jared Allen to cause more havoc in the backfield. Combined with a running game consisting of AP, rookie Heisman finalist Toby Gerhart, and even T-Jack's speed, the Vikings could look a lot like the Baltimore Ravens. Hey, they won a Superbowl with Trent freaking Dilfer at QB.

Scenario C: Rookie QB Joe Webb gets thrown into the fire
I'm not saying Webb, who was drafted as a WR even though he set QB records at Alabama-Birmingham, will start the season. But if T-Jack starts the season 1-5 and Sage Rosenfels is still Sage Rosenfels, then why not see what the kid can do. Evidently he's shown the Vikings coaching staff enough in camp that they have him playing QB exclusively; he's not even working out as a WR anymore. Say what you want about Brad Childress, but he was Donovan McNabb's QB coach to start in Philadelphia, so I trust his expertise...at least in that area. On the other hand, he voted to draft T-Jack, so...

Scenario D: Vikings trade for an established veteran
The main problem with this scenario is that most of the QB shifting is done, and anyone who might be available—such as Brady Quinn, for instance—aren't really better options than what the Vikings already have. Michael Vick might be a possibility, but Zygi Wilf is big on player character, so that's unlikely, and that's about everyone. Crazy dream suggestion: lure Kurt Warner out of retirement.

So what's the most likely scenario? Probably a remarkable improvement in Favre's ankle followed by him starting his 20th NFL season wearing purple...I hope.

Farve to Retire (and he really, really, really means it this time!)

Breaking news from multiple sources: Brett Favre has informed the Vikings that he will not return this season. My comments tonight after this news is confirmed by Favre and the Vikings. Reports indicate some type of press conference and/or statement this afternoon.

The Real Reason Ryan Ludwick was Traded

Most of the "experts" who get paid to do what I'm doing for fun have widely panned the Ryan Ludwick for Jake Westbrook trade. Some of the reasons include: 1) Cardinals need hitting more than pitching; 2) Ludwick has more value to the team than Westbrook's pitching skills; 3) Mozeliak overpaid for Westbrook; 4) the trade could mess up team chemistry. Let me address these individually before I give the true answer, the real reason why Mozeliak made this trade.


Myth: Cardinals need hitting more than pitching.
Fact: Pitching wins championships.
Does anyone really believe that the Cardinals can stay ahead or pull away from the Reds if they only win 60% of their remaining games at most? Because what we faced before the trade was Blake Hawksworth and Jeff Suppan pitching every 4th and 5th game. That puts added pressure on the big three in the rotation, Carpenter, Wainwright and Garcia, to win every game. With Westbrook in the rotation and a healthy Kyle Lohse returning soon, the chances of extending winning streaks past 5-6 games increases greatly. In addition, now you put Suppan and Hawksworth into the bullpen, which reduces the load on Boggs, Motte and McClellan. In other words, LaRussa and Duncan have about a dozen more options for their pitching staff each game. Most of all, they can reduce the pressure on the Big Three and get them fine-tuned for the playoffs—if we make it there.

Myth: Ludwick was a integral part of the team.
Fact: Ludwick's age and injury made him tradeable.
No one denies that Ryan Ludwick is a quality ballplayer and a great asset to the ballclub. Unfortunately for him, he got hurt this year and spent a significant amount of time on the disabled list. During that time, the Cardinals went on an eight-game winning streak and retook first place from the Reds. The Cardinals needed a No. 4 starter a lot more than they needed to plug Ludwick back into an already crowded outfield rotation. And at age 32, there's no guarantee that Ludwick could put up All-Star numbers again. Much of the angst over the trade has to do with how much fans and media really liked Luddy. Hey, I did too, but I'd much rather be watching Cardinal baseball deep into October.

Myth: The Cardinals overpaid for Westbrook.
Fact: This trade was our only real option for starting pitching.
Whiners complained that Houston and Arizona just "gave away" Roy Oswalt and Dan Haren for marginable prospects. Reality check: Oswalt and Haren are both carrying big contracts that would have put more strain on the Cardinals payroll even this year, so they didn't make the same kind of financial sense that the Westbrook deal did. Plus, Houston had no intention of trading Oswalt within the division, and especially not to the Cardinals, unless we gave them Shelby Miller. Not. Gonna. Happen. On the down side, since we did wait until the trading deadline, we pretty much had to make the deal we could. Every other team knew we wanted a pitcher, so Mozeliak was smart to resist the urge to trade away a top prospect.

Myth: This deal could wreck team chemistry.
Fact: Cardinals management is building through the farm system.
The reason Walt Jocketty is in Cincinnati is because Cardinals ownership decided to side with Jeff Luhnow and build through the farm system instead of trading pieces for veterans each season. With the emergence of Jon Jay, Allen Craig, David Freese and Tyler Greene, it is clear that the youth movement is a permanent fixture for the time being. With all these young players contributing, it made Ludwick expendable.

AND NOW, THE REAL REASON LUDWICK WAS TRADED...
Albert Pujols.

Simply put, the Cardinals have to figure out how to pay Albert between $27-$30 million a year. He makes $15 million now. Ludwick would have cost $7-$8 million next year. Do the math. It also explains why we took Westbrook, who's only costing us a few million for the rest of the year, instead of Oswalt, Haren, or another more expensive pitcher. It also justifies going with the kids from Memphis in three or four lineup spots instead of more expensive veterans. Owner Bill DeWitt is not going to expand the payroll to cover Pujols' pay raise, and Pujols won't settle for anything other than becoming the highest-paid player in baseball. Ludwick's salary makes the math a lot easier. As fond as we were of Ludwick, does anyone in Cardinal nation really want to see Albert in Bronx pinstripes in 2012? That really would be the end of the world.

It's Good to be Back!

Hello again, Sandlot fans. It's been a long time. The day job devoured all of my time since last year's football season, but the job situation changed this summer, and I am rededicating myself to posting about the sports we all care about on a more regular basis. If this is your first time visiting, welcome! For readers both old and new, you can expect honest opinions from a fan's point of view about what's going on in Missouri and midwest professional and college sports. Just to give you a sample and to wade back into the waters, I'm offering short takes on a variety of topics to give you an idea of what to expect in the future.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Why is the offense underachieving and inconsistent? What effect will the Ludwick-for-Westbrook trade have on team chemistry and performance? Can the Cardinals pull away from the Reds, or will the race go down to the wire? We'll talk about these issues and more, including the future of Albert Pujols.

ST. LOUIS RAMS
The $78 million question is simply, "Is Sam Bradford worth that much money?" The quick answer is, "Not until he proves that he's worth it." This team is not going back to the Superbowl any time soon, but in terms of fan priorities, I'll list a few: 1) More competitive in games, even when they lose; 2) Bradford shows potential, makes some great throws, gives fans hope; 3) Defense gets tougher, harder, more physical, more punishing, even when they lose; 4) Coaching staff makes smarter game plans and game day decisions. Even if they only win five or six games, if these things can happen, they'll at least be worth watching.

MIZZOU TIGERS
Last year was a "pass" year, with the loss of significant talent and Blake Gabbert's first year as the starting QB. No more excuses this year, but even bigger challenges ahead with back-to-back games against Oklahoma at home and then on the road against Nebraska. Until we beat the big boys, we're nothing more than a second-tier program, and that's just not good enough for a program of this size. Key issue: defense, which gave up way too many points last year.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Yes, of course Brett Favre is coming back, but the odds of him having the kind of season he had last year are unlikely. The window of opportunity is far slimmer this year than last, and with a labor lockout stoppage likely for next season, this may be the last chance for Purple Reign this decade. Key goal: win home field advantage for entire NFC playoffs.

I'll be tackling these topics and many more in the days and weeks ahead. If you're a Facebook friend, I'll update new posts there, or you can subscribe to free RSS feeds and notices. However you get here, I hope you have a good time!

NFL Week Eight Picks: Languishing in the Doldrums...no more! (update)

Didn't get a chance to post last week's picks, though they were typical of how this season is going—fully half of each week's games are unpredictable coin flips. At least ten teams are so maddeningly inconsistent from week to week, winning by double digits this week, losing to a one-win team the next, that I am now fully qualified by my sub-.700 record to appear on ESPN's "NFL Live" as one of their "experts." Not that it matters, but on with the picks.

Houston at Buffalo
Coin flip number one. Which Houston team will show up? The Matt Schaub juggernaut or the mediocre moo-cows? And what about Buffalo? Will Harvard QB and Rams castoff Ryan Fitzpatrick jump start the Bills tepid offense? Nobody knows! That's my point!
Texans 31, Bills 17 [HOU 31, BUF 10]

Cleveland at Chicago
Coin flip number two. Cleveland has no offense, but they have played games where the defense is quite stout. Chicago has all the personality of a manic-depressive schizophrenic. While everyone is talking about the Cubs and their Billy Goat curse, why don't we talk about the Bears obvious QB curse? Cutler showed signs of greatness in Denver, while Kyle Orton was third-string in Chicago. Now Cutler looks like Rex Grossman and Orton's a legit MVP candidate. Who can we pin this curse upon? Jim McMahon? Mike Ditka? Bob Avellini?
Bears 20, Browns 6 [CHI 30, CLE 6]

Seattle at Dallas
Not exactly a coin flip, but Seattle looked better than the are early in the season, while Dallas has obviously underachieved. Now that things are balancing out, this should be an easy win for the home team, which tells me I would be smarter for picking Seattle.
Cowboys 38, Seahawks 13 [DAL 38, SEA 17]

St. Louis at Detroit
The Rams will win this game with strong defense against Detroit's inept offense as well as controlling the ball behind Steven Jackson. The Rams, despite their losses, have been showing visible signs of improvement, while Detroit has been backsliding since their sole win over the disastrous Redskins.
Rams 21, Lions 17 [STL 17, DET 10]

San Francisco at Indianapolis
Look for Frisco to hang in early on the virtue of their defense, but Peyton Manning is having a career year, and they will pull away in the second half for a comfortable win.
Colts 41, 49ers 24 [IND 18, SF 14]

Miami at New York Jets
Slightly more people are picking the Jets, but the Dolphins destroyed them in Florida, so I don't see this rematch as any kind of advantage for Gang Green. They can't stop Miami's running game, and Sanchez played awful against their defense.
Dolphins 33, Jets 14 [MIA 30, NYJ 25]

Denver at Baltimore
Coin flip number three. Denver's been great, while Baltimore has stumbled against New England and Minnesota, games they should have won. But the Ravens are coming off a bye week, and Denver's probably due for a close loss. This game can and will go either way down to the wire, but I'm giving the slightest of edges to the home team.
Ravens 28, Broncos 27 [BAL 30, DEN 7]

New York Giants at Philadelphia
Coin flip number four. Will Eli play better? How will Bradshaw's broken foot affect the Giants' running game? (Answer: poorly) Will McNabb and company play up to their potential? (Answer: do they ever?) Again, I have to give the slight edge to the home team with the understanding that if the Giants team from early in the season shows up, it's an easy New York win.
Eagles 24, Giants 21 [PHI 40, NYG 17]

Jacksonville at Tennessee
So the Titans have to win a game eventually, right? An Jacksonville's due to lay another egg this week, right? And Vince Young will play like he has everything to prove, right? And the Titans will rally around Jeff Fisher amidst rumors of "trouble" with owner Bud Adams, right? And if the Colts aren't in town, the AFC South home teams have the edge in divisional games, right? I don't know if I'm right about this at all, but here goes...
Titans 28, Jaguars 24 [TEN 30, JAX 13]

Oakland at San Diego
Arnold Schwarzenegger signed a bill that paves the way for a new L.A. stadium. Oakland's been mentioned as a possible tenant. Just brilliant. That's like building a luxurious new home and leasing it to a meth head. Meanwhile, let me remind you that San Diego gave away Drew Brees for Phillip Rivers, the douche who ESPN's "experts" love more than any other QB except for...
Chargers 38, Raiders 7 [SD 24, OAK 16]

Minnesota at Green Bay
...boy wonder, Superman, Messiah, Aaron Rodgers, who has already been enshrined by the aforementioned "experts" in his own brand-new wing in the Hall of Fame. If Minnesota's QB was named "Brandt Fisher," and the "experts" could cast aside their schoolgirl crush on Aaron McDreamy, the head-t0-head matchup would obviously favor the Vikings. Having said that, Packers fans and some players will be bent on revenge over their "traitorous" former hero, proving once again that Packers fans are the whinest, most delusional and pathetic excuses for football fans anywhere. Three years of glory vs. decades of futility. Just shut up. Here's hoping BRETT FAVRE (suck it, monkeys!) shuts them all up decisively.
Vikings 33, Packers 27 [MIN 38, GB 26]

Carolina at Arizona
At least this one is easy—Carolina stinks, Arizona is on its way back to the playoffs and another divisional title.
Cardinals 34, Panthers 12 [CAR 34, ARZ 21]

Atlanta at New Orleans
Ladies and gentleman, your 2009-2010 NFC Champions...
Saints 44, Falcons 31

This week: 11-1
Week six: 8-6
Last week: 9-4
This season: 70-33 (.680)

NFL Week Six Picks: R-E-S-P-E-C-T

Can an undefeated team get some love this week?

Minnesota over Baltimore
Commentators are still hating on Brett Favre, ignoring the fact that Baltimore has coughed up two games they should have won.

Cincinnati over Houston
Are the Bengals for real? It looks that way, but contenders win games like this—at home over a lesser opponent.

Green Bay over Detroit
The odds makers predict a Packer blowout, but that's residue of Favre-hatred, which is linked to an overabundance of Rodgers-love. The Lions will make this close, just not close enough.

NY Giants over New Orleans
Everything would seem to favor the home team, but I think the Giants are a much tougher team. If the Saints want to be the best, they have to beat the best.

Pittsburgh over Cleveland
Lose this game, and the Steelers may not get the chance to defend their title.

Carolina over Tampa Bay
A truly putrid match-up that really could go either way.

Washington over Kansas City
I've picked two or three games over the past few weeks billed as "can't miss" picks by the geniuses at ESPN Radio. They've missed every one. They love KC at DC this week. Ergo, take the 'Skins.

Jacksonville over St. Louis
Lambs simply do not have enough talent to beat this defense on the road. Plus, stupid mistakes are killing whatever momentum they generate.

Seattle over Arizona
The Gridbirds should win this one going away, and they could if they play to their potential, but I haven't seen it yet—they can't get one game where offense and defense both play well at the same time. Seattle's huge win over Jax at home last week should carry over into this divisional game.

Philadelphia over Oakland
Only watchable for die-hard Eagles fans.

New England over Tennessee
Should we start worrying about Jeff Fisher's job? Is this unthinkable?

NY Jets over Buffalo
I really thought the Bills would be better than this, but they may be worse than the Rams.

Atlanta over Chicago
I think Lovie Smith needs a better offensive staff. His D is stout, but explain why Kyle Orton is lighting it up in Denver when he couldn't even start in the Second City.

Denver over San Diego
I'm no fool—when you're rolling sevens, keep laying your money on sevens.

Last week: 9-5
Season: 53-23 (.697)

Rush got "Dixie Chicked" out of the NFL

Fox Sports Radio, which has a tendency submerge itself in the political swamp of its corporate master, the GOP propaganda machine that is Fox “News,” was blathering away this morning about how the “PC police” had chased poor Rush Limbaugh (hereafter referred to as “FB,” which stands for “Fat Bastard”) out of the group bidding to buy the St. Louis Rams. Right-wing whining aside (poor, poor rich white men—they don’t have any wealth or power, boo-hoo), this was an economics decision driven by political reality.

Fat Bastard got “Dixie Chicked.”

Remember a few years ago when Dixie Chicks lead singer Natalie Maines said from a concert stage in London, England, that she was ashamed that President George W. Bush and she were both from the state of Texas? Free speech, right? Well, in America, we don’t really believe in free speech for everyone. We only approve of free speech that we agree with. Everyone else needs to shut up or be forced to shut up.

In the case of the Dixie Chicks, country music stations stopped playing their songs, and inbreds everywhere crawled out from underneath their trailers to burn their Dixie Chicks CDs. Setting fire to anything we don’t like—witches, books, Muslim countries—is the American way, after all. They responded by breaking their contract with their country label, signing with a rock label and winning a bunch of Grammies. Living well really is the best revenge, it seems.

Well, FB was one of the loudest promoters of that anti-DC sentiment, so the irony here is just chocalicious, the fact that his own public statements, of which there is a long and vomitous record, has resulted in economic consequences. To be precise, St. Louis Blues chairman Dave Checketts dropped FB from his group that is bidding to purchase the Rams because it became clear to him that FB’s presence would result in failure.

But isn’t this a result of political correctness? Absolutely not. FB is a racist, pure and simple. If you don’t think so, then you don’t know where he’s from. I’m from the same place, southeast Missouri. I grew up in a town smaller than his hometown, but it’s only 75 miles away and culturally identical. This is still, culturally speaking, the Confederacy. You still hear racist jokes targeted at African-Americans. People still use the “n-word” regularly to refer to anyone with brown skin. FB’s audience is partially composed of this remnant of the racist south, and his popularity stems from the fact that he says things on the radio that people would get fired for saying in real life. Haters love to have their hatred validated.

Now, combine this element—the central element of FB’s success, mind you, not just a few random statements taken out of context, but the whole raison d’etre of his career—and mix that into St. Louis. St. Louis is a strange place. It’s mostly liberal, but with strong pockets of radical conservatism, people for whom Dick Cheney is the ideal politician. It’s mainly segregated, with black living in the north city and county and whites in the south city and south/west county, but with pockets of multicultural tolerance.

For the average St. Louis Rams fan, FB wouldn’t have made much of a difference. But there are a lot of people in the St. Louis area, and the surrounding eastern half of the state, that would have completely abandoned the Rams had FB become even a minority (savor the irony) owner, myself included. I would have sold every scrap of Rams clothing I own, never tuned in to another broadcast, never attended another game, or done anything to contribute one thin dime to the franchise.

Now, if even 25 percent of current Rams supporters feel this way, how would this have affected the franchise? No more home game sellouts, which means local TV blackouts and loss of ad revenue. A mostly empty stadium with no hope of upgrades or improvements. With the lack of revenue, the team would surely languish at the bottom of the league, unable to sign big-name talent or lure free agents—especially African-American players—to a team owned in part by a man who said that NFL games are like gang wars without knives.

The NFL is full of controversial figures, many of whom are very conservative in their politics, some who may even refer to their own black players with the “n-word” behind closed doors. The difference is they don’t make millions of dollars pushing these ideas on the radio. If they did, the same firestorm of controversy would certainly result.

This is a free country. FB is free to say whatever he wants to say. But the rest of us are equally free to tell him that his hatred for every American who isn’t rich, white, male and conservative is something we don’t want behind our football team. But what if all this results in the Rams leaving St. Louis? As a lifetime St. Louis sports fan, I can honestly say I’d rather have no team at all than one owned by someone like him.

NFL Week Five: Quick Picks (update with results)

Had a big yard sale yesterday, so the weekend's been hectic. Here's today's picks...

Buffalo over Cleveland
This is a game that has pick disaster all over it.
Somebody stop me before I pick Buffalo again—Browns 6, Bills 3.

Pittsburgh over Detroit
Culpepper should throw three picks against Steeler defense.
Is Detroit improving, or should we be worried about Pittsburgh? Steelers 28, Lions 20.

Dallas over Kansas City
Aren't the Cowboys better than they've played so far?
I'm not sure they are, but does anyone think they're a legit playoff team? Cowboys 26, Chefs 20.

Vikings over Rams
I'll be angry if this game is even close.
This is exactly the kind of game the pre-Favre Vikings would have lost—Vikings 38, Lambs 10.

Giants over Raiders
Is Al Davis even still alive?
This was embarrassing, even by Oakland's low standards. NYG 44, Oakland 7.

Eagles over Bucs
McNabb returns to crush hapless Tampa.
Tampa looks like an expansion team again. Philly 33, Tampa 14.

Panthers over 'Skins
Carolina stinks, but Washington is even more dreadful.
Has anyone seen Jim Zorn's resumé on Monster.com? Carolina 20, Washington 17.

Ravens over Bengals
Contenders over pretenders in the NFC North.
Yes, the Bengals are for real, and the Ravens better figure out their offense if they want to be back in the picture. Cincy 17, Baltimore 14.

49ers over Falcons
Mainly because the game is in Frisco.
Holy asskicking, Batman! Guess the Falcons are a lot better than I thought, and the 49ers aren't quite as good as they've looked. Atlanta 45, SF 10.

Seahawks over Jaguars
Jax is due to lay another egg, and Seattle's a tough place to win.
Guess I was really, really right about this one. Seattle 41, Jax 0.

Cardinals over Texans
Kurt Warner gets his groove back at home.
Yeah, but what about that defense coughing up a big lead? Shaky...Arizona 28, Houston 21.

Patriots over Broncos
Let's see how "for real" Denver is this week.
Really for real. They're going to win the AFC West in a walk, and this was one of the most entertaining football games I've watched. Denver 20, NE 17.

Colts over Titans
Man crush alert! Man crush alert!
Peyton's got five consecutive 300+ passing yards games now, just one shy of the record. Their next opponent? The Lambs. I think he'll tie the record. Indy 31, Tenn 9.

Jets over Dolphins
Mainly a defensive game, I think, and NY gets the edge.
Not a defensive game, and entertaining score-fest that went to the wire. This is why we love football! Miami 31, NYJ 27.

This week: 9-5
Last week: 10-4
Season: 53-23 (.697)

Suck it, monkeys

We're number one.

NFL Week Four: Who's on MNF this week again?

Thirteen and three last week, and I stupidly hoped to pick a Rams upset in the home opener. Durr.... The Vikings better shore up their secondary, or Aaron Rodgers is likely to pass for 300 yards. I still think the story of the game will be Adrian Peterson, not Brett Favre. Look for AP to shine in the Monday night spotlight this week. Here's my picks:

Detroit at Chicago
Hope you enjoyed that win last week, Lions. This week, back to reality.
Bears 33, Lions 13

Cincinnati at Cleveland
Are the Bengals for real this year? Who cares this week? They're playing one of the league's worst teams. People need to learn that working for a good coach doesn't make you a good coach. Have any of Belichick's disciples actually succeeded anywhere yet? Yeah, but the book's still out on the Broncos. Let's see how they fare against Dallas this week.
Bengals 38, Browns 16

Seattle at Indianapolis
I despise the Seattle franchise, so watching my man Peyton shred the Seahawks secondary is going to make my Sunday afternoon—provided my stupid cable company carries the game. Now that Tyler Hansbrough's playing for the Pacers, all Indy sports must automatically count as home games in Poplar Bluff.
Colts 30, Seahawks 14

NY Giants at Kansas City
Best, meet worst. Worst, meet best. Best beats worst.
Giants 37, Chefs 6

Tampa Bay at Washington
Just what the struggling 'Skins needed—the worst team in the league coming to town.
Skins 33, Bucs 3

Tennessee at Jacksonville
How is anyone supposed to pick this game? Jax got killed by Arizona, who stunk it up at home against San Fran, just one week after almost beating Indy. Last week, just to confuse things, they beat Houston in a shootout. Meanwhile, last year's highest wins team (13-3) with maybe the best head coach in the league starts out 0-3, losing two close games and a shootout against the same Houston team that Jax outscored. What the #&@%!? I should just flip a coin.
Titans 24, Jaguars 23

Oakland at Houston
To call the Oakland Raiders a tire fire is an insult to tire fires.
Texans 37, Raiders 13

Baltimore at New England
Old boss, meet the new boss.
Ravens 21, Patriots 17

NY Jets at New Orleans
Drew Brees is must-see TV. Too bad the networks schedule prime games based on last year's teams.
Saints 31, Jets 24

Buffalo at Miami
I wouldn't bet on Chad Henne if you put a gun to my head.
Bills 27, Dolphins 16

Dallas at Denver
Dallas stood toe-to-toe with the Giants and almost won the game, then outslugged a still-tough Carolina defense. Denver beat Cincy on a fluke play, then beat Cleveland and Oakland, two huge doormats. Even at Mile High, I give Dallas the edge in this one.
Cowboys 24, Denver 20

St. Louis at San Francisco
This is going to make those humiliating games from the pre-Vermeil and Warner '90s look like relaxing walk along the beach on a warm summer day.
49ers 49, Rams 0

San Diego at Pittsburgh
The Steelers have to win this one at home, right? Right? Because they're freaking killing me week after week, and I'm going to jump ship if they blow this one.
Steelers 13, Chargers 10

Green Bay at Minnesota
Go ahead, make it all about Brett Favre. Focus on the passing game and trying to humiliate the old man. All the better to clear the running lanes for AP. Get this through your head, losers: Favre's a role player, and he knows it. This game will be about physical domination, and the Vikings will impose their will on a young and often erratic Packers squad. And did any of you really think I would pick differently?
Vikings 31, Packers 20

Last week: 13-3
This season: 34-14 (.708)

NFL Picks Week Three: Still woozy from last week's beating (early game update)

My boys are playing youth football, so yesterday was their first round of games. I've also been under the weather this week, so it's quick picks today. I'll add more comments after the games. I need to do much better than last week, where my picks looked like something you'd see from the "experts" at ESPN.

Pittsburgh over Cincinnati
Roethisburger and company will bounce back big, and they own the Bengals.
Bengals 23, Steelers 20—Troy or not, there's no excuse for choking this game up.

Detroit over Washington
Washington barely beat the Rams at home, so I see Detroit playing big at home and winning today.
Lions 19, Skins 14—Jim Zorn's job is officially in danger as of today.

St. Louis over Green Bay
Same goes for the Rams; they played well enough to win last week, and I think the Packers will take them too lightly.
Packers 36, Rams 17—another hard-fought effort on the part of the Rams, but their secondary got torched for too many long plays, and their offense just doesn't have enough play makers. Patience is a virtue, Rams fans; we're building for 2011.

Minnesota over San Francisco
Favre and Peterson will be geeked up for the Vikes' home opener.
Vikings 27, 49ers 24—This is exactly why we needed Brett Favre; there's no way that T-Jack or Sage-Ro takes them on that last drive or makes that last pass. Niners are for real, folks, and they're going to win the NFC West.

New England over Atlanta
If the Pats lose at home to a dome team, you can scratch them off this season. I'm picking them because Brady and Belichick have always won when their backs are against the wall.
Patriots 26, Falcons 10—Reports of the Patriots' death have been greatly exaggerated.

NY Jets over Tennessee
Rex Ryan has given this team a whole new (and nasty) attitude.
Jets 24, Titans 17—What the heck is wrong with Tennessee? I would say QB, but their defense isn't getting it done...no Albert Haynesworth, perhaps?

Philadelphia over Kansas City
No McNabb? Vick's role unknown? Defensive questions? Doesn't matter when playing the woeful Chefs.
Eagles 34, Chefs 14—no, that's not a typo. Until they win, they are a ragtag band of former sous-chefs led by perky, plucky Rachel Ray.

NY Giants over Tampa Bay
Tampa's probably regretting firing Jon Gruden right now, dontcha think?
Giants 24, Bucs 0—Again, will someone explain to me why Superbowl winning coach Jon Gruden was fired so they could hire someone almost eight years younger than Brett Favre to coach this woeful bunch? Can the Chefs or the Lambs get this bunch on their schedule?

Baltimore over Cleveland
The Ravens look better and better each week.
Ravens 34, Browns 3—especially when they play a team as bad as the Browns.

Houston over Jacksonville
Matt Schaub just looked cosmic last week.
Jags 31, Texans 24—Wait a minute...Jax coughs up a hairball at home last week, while Houston outscores Tennessee in Nashville, then this? Sometime the NFL just doesn't make sense.

Chicago over Seattle
Without Matt Hasslebeck, Seattle's not much better than St. Louis.
Bears 25, Seahawks 19

New Orleans over Buffalo
The Saints are scoring like a tween geek playing Madden NFL.
Saints 27, Bills 7

Denver over Oakland
Don't know how they're doing it, but the Broncos are winning somehow.
Broncos 23, Raiders 3

San Diego over Miami
This is purely about home field.
Chargers 23, Dolphins 13

Indianapolis over Arizona
Don't pick against my man crush.
Colts 31, Cardinals 10

Dallas over Carolina
Anyone looking for a defensive coordinator? John Fox should be available by the end of the season.
Cowboys 21, Panthers 7

This week: 13-3
Last week: 8-8
This season: 34-14 (.708)

NFL Picks: Week Two

Week one was pretty good, although I felt like the fluke ending of Denver-Cincy and Arizona's receivers baffling inability to catch wide-open screen passes kept me from the 15-1 start I deserved. Week two is always tricky—we never know if week one was what to expect this season, overplaying (Kansas City) or slow start (Arizona). I feel confident about these picks, so it's probably feast or famine.

Update: Uhh, how can I describe my picks this Sunday? It was like when Andy Dufresne first met the "sisters" in the laundry at Shawshank State Penitentiary.

Carolina at Atlanta
These are two teams going in different directions. Atlanta has a great young quarterback, and up-and-coming coach and all kinds of good buzz. Carolina has a washed-up quarterback, a coach probably on the firing line and nothing but bad vibes.
Falcons 24, Panthers 13 (ATL 28, CAR 20)
Delhomme had a better week, but Atlanta is the top of that division now.

Minnesota at Detroit
Here’s the difference Brett Favre makes for Vikings fans—last year, we wondered if our quarterback was the reason we would lose the game. Now we know that Favre could, if needed, win a close game. With Peterson, Taylor and Harvin running the ball, the Vikes offense could be as effective as their defense.
Vikings 31, Lions 17 (MIN 27, DET 13)
Brett Favre had a QB rating of 115 this week. Suck it, monkeys!

Cincinnati at Green Bay
The Bengals need a hug after coughing up that game to Denver last week. You don’t need to travel to Lambeau Field after that kind of a loss.
Packers 35, Bengals 9 (CIN 31, GB 24)
Wait, I thought Aaron Rodgers was the football Jesus!

Houston at Tennessee
I would like it if someone could explain why Houston got an expansion franchise after the good team moved to Tennessee.
Titans 23, Texans 10 (HOU 34, TEN 31)
Would someone like to explain the mysterious disappearance of the Tennessee defense? Give credit to Houston QB Matt Schaub for a great game.

Oakland at Kansas City
Both of these teams played much better than anyone expected, but Baltimore is really good, and San Diego is overrated, so I’m going with the Chefs at home.
Chiefs 17, Raiders 14 (OAK 13, KC 10)
Note to self: Don't pick KC again.

New England at NY Jets
Why oh why do teams taunt the Patriots and make bold claims about imminent victory? You don’t poke a hungry bear with a stick…duh!
Patriots 38, Jets 20 (NYJ 16, NE 9)
Tom Brady is not 100% after knee surgery, just as Tiger Woods wasn't. It takes two years for the knee to be completely healthy. I'll call it now--Pats don't make the playoffs this year.

New Orleans at Philadelphia
With a healthy McNabb, this is a shootout. With Kevin Kolb making his first pro start and 83-year-old Jeff Garcia backing him up, I’m going with the New Orleans scoring machine.
Saints 30, Eagles 21 (NO 48, PHI 22)
No one in the league wants to try to defend against this Saints offense. Just terrifying.

St. Louis at Washington
I remember when the Rams were really, really good. That was awesome. This is not.
Skins 27, Rams 6 (WAS 9, STL 7)
Rams played hard again, but they just don't have enough playmakers. And Donnie Avery must coat his hands and arms with Crisco.

Arizona at Jacksonville
Kurt Warner wasn’t great last week, but he wasn’t helped by receivers who couldn’t catch water with a bucket. I don’t see them faring much better traveling to the East Coast to play a defensively tough Jags squad.
Jaguars 21, Cardinals 14 (ARZ 31, JAX 17)
Yeah, Kurt Warner's a hall of famer, and the Jags are D-O-N-E.

Seattle at San Francisco
After the beating they put on the Rams, I’m going to stick with Seattle until San Fran shows me something more consistent.
Seahawks 26, 49ers 19 (SF 23, SEA 10)
Okay, they showed me. The Vikings are in for a tough home opener next week. Hasslebeck's hurt again, so goodbye, Seattle.

Tampa Bay at Buffalo
Just for the sake of karma, Buffalo deserves this one.
Bills 24, Bucs 17 (BUF 33, TB 20)
Karma says, "Okay."

Pittsburgh at Chicago
No Polamalu is still better than no Urlacher.
Steelers 33, Bears 17 (CHI 17, PIT 14)
Jeff Reed misses two field goals? Am I cursed this week?

Cleveland at Denver
I think Cleveland’s better than Denver, but I also think Mile High is a huge home field advantage.
Broncos 16, Browns 12 (DEN 27, CLE 6)
Maybe Denver's better than we thought. Let's see them against a top team first.

Baltimore at San Diego
Folks, the Baltimore Ravens are for real this year. I currently have them ranked fourth in the AFC after Pittsburgh, Indy and New England. All the idiots drinking the “Chargers in the Superbowl” Kool-Aid need to remember three things: 1) LaDanian Tomlinson is over the hill; 2) Norv Turner is an idiot; 3) Phillip Rivers is a douche.
Ravens 38, Chargers 17 (BAL 31, SD 26)
Home field was good for an extra score for SD.

NY Giants at Dallas
I don’t usually do this, but SportsCenter tonight pointed out that the Giants are injured, Eli’s never won in Dallas, and Tony Romo is 4-0 over New York at home. I’ll give this one a shot, just once.
Cowboys 27, Giants 20 (NYG 33, DAL 31)
Eli Manning is one cool customer, and this is the last time I listen to ESPN.

Indianapolis at Miami
Hate the Anthony Gonzalez injury, but hey, it’s Indy. I don’t pick against my man crush.
Colts 20, Dolphins 13 (IND 27, MIA 23)
I think the defense is still taking IV fluids, though

This week: 8-8
Last week: 13-3
Season: 21-11 (.656)