The Minneapolis Miracle

Did that just happen? Was it not a dream?

This is not what happens for the Minnesota Vikings; this is what happens to the Minnesota Vikings. Roger Staubach to Drew Pearson in 1975, the very first "Hail Mary." Losing their fourth Superbowl to John Madden's best Oakland Raiders team ever. 1998—wide left, take a knee, lose in OT. Brett Favre throwing a pick after repeated late hits (uncalled, of course) from the Saints in 2009. Blair Walsh wide left after outplaying a superior Seahawks team in a throwback outdoor winter game in Minnesota.

Yes, all of those things and so many more have happened over the years, and I've been a Minnesota Vikings fan since the winter of 1975, when my dad and grandpa taught me how to understand football. The Vikings were 10-0 at the time, and I watched Fran Tarkenton play quarterback for the first time. I was hooked for life, like I had just mainlined a bad drug.

Over the years, I've become accustomed, as have so many other Vikings fans, to the kind of Nordic stoic fatalism that comes with having your sports fan hearts broken over and over again. While I'm never going to root for the Cubs (I have Cardinals DNA; I'm genetically incapable), I did feel joy for their fan base when they finally won the World Series. I felt the same way for Cleveland when the Cavs won the NBA title. Every fan base deserves at least one championship in a generation. Just one is enough.

Unless you cheer for the Vikings, because until last night, all evidence pointed to one incontrovertible fact: God hates the Vikings. That's why, even up 17-0 at halftime, all I could think about was the missed 49-yard field goal at the end of the first half. Sure enough, by early in the fourth quarter, it was 17-14, then with three minutes left, 21-20. I did what my heart and mind do automatically in these situations: I prepared for the inevitable loss.

Even when the Vikings kicked a long field goal to take a 23-21 lead, there was 1:29 left to go. That was more than enough time for a QB like Drew Brees, a future first-ballot HOFer, to drive them down for the go-ahead field goal. They even faced a fourth-and-ten, but Brees converted easily. By the time the Vikings got the ball back, there were only 25 second left in the game and the season, and not only were they on their own 25-yard line, they started the drive with a false start penalty.

I began to think about how to process the loss. All credit to Drew Brees and Sean Payton, hope the Saints beat the Eagles and then crush the Patriots in the Superbowl. Vikings QB Case Keenum completes a pass to the Vikings 40; they call time out with 19 seconds to go. Did anyone really think we were going to go to the Superbowl with Case Keenum as our QB? Incomplete, second down. This was going to be the biggest playoff deficit—17 points—ever given up, the biggest deficit ever overcome by the Saints. Incomplete, third down, ten seconds left. Get ready for the loss, prepare for the letdown, it's just a game, it's not the end of the world, process the disappointment and let it go...

Did this just happen? Was it not a dream?

I can only describe my reaction as 15 minutes of primal scream therapy. My kids came down the hall to my room to see if I was being murdered. I shouted in joy and celebration until my throat was hoarse. My family called and friends started sending texts of congratulations. I watched replay after replay, sharing the same dumbfounded amazement as the players, coaches, press, and fans who witnessed what will certainly go down as one of the most amazing, improbable, miraculous finishes to any football game in the history of the NFL.

This isn't the end. This was a marvelous, wondrous, miraculous victory, no doubt. But it's just the first step. Unless the Vikings beat the Eagles on the road next week in the NFC Championship, then somehow manage to topple the Patriots (nice job, Jags, but you're not forking winning at Foxboro. Not. Gonna. Happen.), the catch becomes a nice footnote in the endless flow of playoff futility. Nothing short of a Superbowl win in their home stadium can truly end the misery and longing of every true fan of the Purple and Gold.

But this will forever be known as the Minneapolis Miracle. TE Kyle Rudolph said this morning on "Golic and Wingo" on ESPN Radio that the name of the play call was "Heaven." Rudolph said, "You just gotta give it up."

Maybe, just maybe...God has decided to stop hating the Vikings.

NFC Wild Card Contenders...It's Anyone's Game to Win

It's no surprise that in the much-stronger NFC, we can expect the Wild Card race to be much more competitive, and whoever emerges from the fray is much more likely to move on to the Divisional Round, and with the injury to Carson Wentz in Philly, possibly the NFC Championship in...Minnesota? New Orleans? Let's take a look at the scenarios and the probabilities...

Carolina Panthers (9-4, #5 seed)—at home against the Packers and the Bucs, then final week on the road in Atlanta, I predict they will go 2-1 with a meaningless last-week loss to Atlanta, followed by a win in LA over the Rams before the Vikings get their revenge on the Panthers in the divisional round.

Atlanta Falcons (8-5, #6 seed)—their last three games are at the Bucs and at the Saints, then home to the Panthers. If they split with the Bucs and the Saints (they will), that puts them at 9-6, while Carolina will be 11-4. They won't get seeded any higher than sixth, but they might need to win that last game to get into the playoffs. It may or may not be enough. Even if they do win, they're not beating the Saints on the road in the Wild Card round.

Seattle Seahawks (8-5, out of playoffs)—They're hosting the Rams this week and the Cardinals the last week of the season (two wins), so their penultimate game at Dallas will determine whether they can overtake Atlanta for the sixth seed. I hate to see Seattle in the playoffs again, but if I were a betting man, I'd take them over Atlanta at this point in the season. They could beat the Saints on the road, also.

All at 7-6:
Detroit Lions—Bears (win); at Bengals (win); Packers (loss) puts them at 9-7, but if they can beat the Packers at home and sweep the final three games, 10-6 could get them a trip to New Orleans. Don't count them out just yet.

Green Bay Packers—at Panthers (loss); Vikings (loss); at Lions (win). They could flip-flop Vikings/Lions, but they're not beating the Panthers, so that's still just 9-7 at best even with Aaron Rodgers returning from injury. They don't have the pieces around him to sweep three games.

Dallas Cowboys—at Raiders (win); Seahawks (win); at Eagles (win). Why? Ezekiel Elliott is coming back from suspension, that's why, and the Eagles won't have anything to play for. If they sweep, they finish 10-6 and have a chance to get in, but they'll need lots of help above them.

My prediction: Carolina gets the five-seed; Seattle steals the sixth.

AFC Wild Card Contenders...Cannon Fodder

The AFC is in the unusual position of being clearly the weaker of the two conferences this year. They really only have two upper echelon teams in the Steelers and the Patriots, with everyone else vying for scrimmage opponents for the two superior organizations. But rules determine that because of TV money and crap like that, instead of just putting Pittsburgh and New England into the AFC Championship without two weeks of pointless games, we have to come up with six teams. So let's see who's going to stink it up in the first week of the playoffs.

Not beating the Patriots...ever.

Jacksonville Jaguars (predicted 10-6 record)
In my conference leaders preview, I said that the Jags and the Titans were basically the same team. Looking ahead at their four remaining games, it looks like they should both finish 10-6. Since Tennessee owns the tie-breaker, it looks like Jacksonville will be the fifth seed, which should pit them against Kansas City. I like their chances against Andy Reid in the first round. Their defense might keep them in the next game against the Pats, but Blake Bortles is not winning a game at Foxboro.
Prediction: Loss at New England in Divisional Round

Let's get ready to rumbllllllllllllllle!

Baltimore Ravens (predicted 9-7 record)
The Ravens could very well finish 3-1, but they're likely to cough up a game to Cincy or Cleveland, so I'm going with 2-2 and the sixth seed. This puts them on the road against Tennessee, where their playoff experience takes the game and brings about the divisional matchup against Pittsburgh that everyone looks forward to every year. This is consistently the best and most vicious grudge match in the league, and it's definitely must-see TV.
Prediction: Loss at Pittsburgh in Divisional Round

Close but no Cigar:

Looks like a pick-six to me.

LA Chargers—Moving an hour north doesn't change the fact that no one chokes at the wrong time late in the season like Philip Rivers. They'll lose at least two of their last four games and finish out of the running at 8-8.

The agony of defeat...

Buffalo Bills—I have a soft spot for the Bills because their playoff and Superbowl misery is on par with my own beloved Minnesota Vikings, but despite a tough defense, they have no quarterback to speak of. They have two games against the Dolphins (split), a probably win against the woeful Colts, and a sure loss to New England. That's 8-8 and an extension of the longest current playoff drought in the league.

"I wanna look like a toddler!"

Oakland Raiders—The Silver-and-Black should be running away with the AFC West thanks to KC's epic collapse, but for some reason, the pieces are just not clicking in Oakland. Maybe it's karma for their goofy-haircut bastard of an owner moving the team to Las Vegas. And what the hell is the deal with multi-millionaires and billionaires with terrible haircuts? Hire a Hollywood hair stylist; bowls are for cooking, not haircuts. They're going to finish 1-3 with a 7-9 record overall.

Every other team in the AFC is below .500; none of the remaining 5-7 teams (Jets, Dolphins, Bengals) are going on a four-game winning streak, and even if they did, that would still just give any of them a 9-7 record and a predicted tie with Baltimore. Odds are about the same as Powerball, so I'm not putting my prognosticating reputation (suspect as it is) on the line for that.

Next time: NFC Wild Card Odds

2017 NFL Playoff Predictions: NFC

Day Two of NFL Playoff Predictions guaranteed to go wrong takes us to the NFC, clearly the stronger of the two conferences overall this year, which makes it even more difficult to accurately predict. My conundrum is compounded by the fact that as of this writing, my beloved Minnesota Vikings sit atop the NFC standings. Anyone who is a Vikings fan knows that this is counter-intuitive information...the better things look for the Vikings, the farther the fall and the more painful the heartbreak will be.

Yeah. This could happen.

It's like this: you have a wonderful, joyous affair four-month affair with Kate Upton that you plan to culminate with a wedding in Vegas; you make it to the altar, where she joins you for the ceremony, only to change her mind and leave you just before she says her vows. Knowing this is going to happen neither deters you from pursuing her nor alleviates the pain of the inevitable loss.

Yeah, that's what it's like to be a Vikings fan.
Every.
Single.
Time.

Carson Wentz that-a-way...

NFC East Leader: Philadelphia Eagles
Pro: The NFL's best and most consistent all-around team, their schedule still looks like 13-3 even if they lose the LA to the {wretching, gagging noise} Rams this weekend. After that, they're at the Giants (black hole of awfulness) and then home against Oakland and Dallas. It looks like they have the inside track on home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Con: Did their loss at Seattle expose inherent weaknesses, or was it an outlier? Look at this weekend's game at the {projectile vomiting} Rams to see how they respond to a talented QB and vicious defense on the other side of the ball.
Prediction: NFC Champions

Alvin Kamara or Flavor Flav?

NFC South Leader: New Orleans Saints
Pro: Drew Brees playing QB like an '80s game of Tecmo Bowl, and the most frightening one-two punch of running backs in Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara that we've seen on any team in decades. They still have two games against Atlanta, which if they split, they have what looks like easy games against the Jets and Tampa Bay. Look for them to finish 11-4.
Con: Can they persevere in a close game against a tough defense? We'll probably have to wait until the playoffs to see about that. And it's going to happen again in Minnesota.
Prediction: Loss to Minnesota in Divisional Round.

Every Vikings fan needs therapy.

NFC North Leader: Minnesota Vikings
Pro: A defense without any discernible weaknesses, teams simply haven't been able to score on the Vikings this season. In the past three weeks, they held the Rams {bleaaaah} to a mere touchdown, and they went on the road to hold Atlanta to three field goals. You can't pass or run on them regardless of your weapons.
Con: When will midnight strike for Case Keenum and we see his ball gown turn to cleaning rags? Is is conceivable that Keenum, a career backup, can do what Kurt Warner did in St. Louis? Bitch, please...this is Minnesota. Keenum will not do what Fran Tarkenton, Randall Cunningham, and Brett Favre were unable to do. Midnight is coming, Viking nation. Try to enjoy the dance for as long as it lasts.
Prediction: Beats New Orleans in Divisional Round; loses to Philadelphia in NFC Championship

Look into the dead eyes of pure evil.

NFC West Leader: Los Angeles {RALLLPH!} Rams
Pro: Jared Goff becoming the QB the team hoped he would in trading away last year's draft to get him; Todd Gurley running wild up and down the field; a vicious, punishing defense that specializes in making QBs miserable and ineffective; no more Jeff "fitty-fitty" Fisher "coaching" on the sidelines.
Con: They are owned by P.Enos Kroenke, and I refuse to believe that the universe will not bitch-slap him with a karmic enema year after year after year until his black soul is reunited in Perdition with his Dark Master.
Prediction: Loss to Philadelphia in Divisional Round

Next up: AFC/NFC Wild Card Predictions

2017 NFL Playoff Predictions: AFC

It's the best time of the year for NFL fans; as Christmas approaches, so does the opportunity for disappointment, heartbreak, depression, and despair...all those things we look forward to in the holiday season. Today I'm going to look at the front-runners in the AFC; I'll tackle the NFC leaders tomorrow, and I'll take a look at the Wild Card odds next week after this weekend's games. Play along and keep score at home, and as always, all predictions are guaranteed to go wrong.

Ha-ha! I own the referees!

AFC East Leaders: New England Patriots
Pro: Their head coach and quarterback made a deal with the devil that apparently doesn't expire until sometime in the next decade. They also play in the most pathetically weak division in the league, so having six automatic wins means .500 everywhere else wins the division. Oh, and the referees are clearly on Robert Kraft's Christmas bonus list.
Con: The league's most hated team, the goal of the AFC playoffs is to keep them out of their, what is it now, ninth Superbowl appearance? Look for the kind of head hunting not seen since Gregg Williams coached the Saints defense.
Prediction: Loses AFC Championship game

I'm smarter than you!

AFC North Leaders: Pittsburgh Steelers
Pro: Mike Tomlin, the NFL's smartest coach; LeVeon Bell, the NFL's toughest runner; Antonio Brown, my fantasy team savior every week; Ben Roethisberger, the Jason Vorhees of quarterbacks.
Con: They'll have to play the AFC title game on the road in New England; their scoring has been inconsistent this year.
Prediction: AFC Champions

Paying off the refs explains a lot.

AFC South Leaders: Tennessee Titans 
and Jacksonville Jaguars (tied at 8-4)
Tennessee: How the #%@& is this team 8-4?
Prediction: Wild Card Playoff Loss

Jacksonville: How the #%@& is this team 8-4?
Prediction: Wild Card Playoff Loss






AFC West Leaders: Chiefs, Chargers, Raiders, all tied at 6-6

This is how many people think I'm going to win a playoff game.

Look, we all know that the Chefs are in freefall, but their next three games are all at home against Oakland, LA Chargers, and Miami, with their final game at Denver, who is a garbage fire this year. I think the Chefs are going to turn it around and go out on a four-game winning streak to take the division. The Chargers are legendary for pooping their pants when the playoffs are on the line late in the season, and I don't trust Oakland to do anything predictable from week to week other than play way below their talent and potential.
Prediction: KC takes division, loses in Wild Card round

Now all my football demons have been cast out...

I've been watching professional football since 1976, when I was eight years old and my maternal grandfather, along with my dad, introduced me to Fran Tarkenton and the Minnesota Vikings. I've been a die-hard Vikings fan ever since, which means that I've suffered a lot of heartbreak. My grandpa was from St. Louis, so I've also followed the football Cardinals until their departure after a dismal 1985 campaign, then welcomed the St. Louis Rams in 1995. The Rams gave us the Greatest Show on Turf, four years of glory, a lonely island in a sea of feckless ineptitude.

My football fandom has not been a total loss. I saw the Rams win what many people think was the most exciting of all the Super Bowls in 2000 over the Tennessee Titans, and I celebrated in 2006 when Peyton Manning and the Colts beat the Patriots in the AFC Championship (what my blog entry calls "The Greatest NFL Game Ever Played"), followed his sole Super Bowl win over the Bears. So it's not like I've never had the chance to break out my copy of Queen's "Greatest Hits" and blast "We Are The Champions" throughout my house.

But for the most part, NFL fandom is an exercise in annual heartbreak. Even the great champion cities of Pittsburgh, Dallas, and San Francisco have lost more season than they've won. For me, it's reached the point where I'm happy if one of my favorite teams makes it to the playoffs (which has been forever for Minnesota and St. Louis).

With that said, the following are my five most heartbreaking NFL losing experiences, all of which were expelled with the same force as Legion being cast into a herd of swine after yesterday's NFC Championship game. We'll get to that in a bit; first, my pain, then my redemption.

Still my favorite QB of all time.

#5. Vikings vs. Raiders, Super Bowl 11, 1977
This was the year I was introduced to the Vikings, who went 10-0 before finishing 11-2-1 and beating Washington and the L.A. Rams to get to their fourth Super Bowl. Then they met the best Oakland Raiders team that John Madden ever coached and lost 32-14. I remember walking out of the house and trudging miserably through the snow before the game was over when I realized the Vikings had no chance to win. I should have just given up then.

EPIC FAIL

#4. Cardinals vs. Washington, 1984
This was the last St. Louis football Cardinals game I ever watched. After taking a 27-26 fourth quarter lead, the Cardinals gave up a field goal to trail 29-27. QB Neil Lomax took the team down in the waning moments to give kicker Neil O'Donahue a chance at a 38-yard game-winning field goal that would have put the Cardinals into the playoffs. Wide right. Four years later, the team moved to Phoenix. I didn't care.

#3. Vikings vs. Saints, NFC Championship, 2010
This was the year Brett Favre came out of retirement (again) and had a simply magical season with the Vikings. Had the referees decided to actually call one or two of the at least 17 roughing the passer personal foul penalties that should have been called on the New Orleans defense, the Vikings probably win this game by two touchdowns. They would have played Peyton's Colts in the Super Bowl, giving me the rare opportunity to root for both teams and be happy regardless of who won. Instead, I hope New Orleans never makes the playoffs again. Ever.

Kurt Warner, HOF (soon!)

#2. Rams vs. Patriots, Super Bowl 36, 2002
The Patriots illegally videotaped the Rams' practice walk-throughs, giving their defense the necessary advantage to derail an offense that was utterly unstoppable that year. Years later,  when the cheating came to light and after the NFL's "investigation," all the recorded evidence of the cheating was destroyed. Yeah, yeah, move along, nothing to see here. I can only take solace in the fact that some day Tom Brady will be too old to play football, and even further into the future, when Bill Belicheck passes away, the devil will finally cash in on Belicheat's end of their bargain.

What Moss meant to the Vikings

#1. Vikings vs. Falcons, NFC Championship, 1998
This is the Rosetta Stone of misery for all Vikings fans. All it would have taken to seal the game in the fourth quarter was a 38-yard field goal by Gary Anderson, who hadn't missed all season. He missed, of course, and Atlanta tied the game with less than two minutes remaining, then won it in overtime. Until yesterday, all you had to say to a Vikings fan was "1998" to either: a) reduce him to tears; or b) enrage him to the point of homicidal psychosis. But thanks to our longtime rivals, the Green Bay Packers, Vikings fans can at last take solace in the fact that we no longer own the worst choke-job in the history of conference championship games.

Here's why my list no longer matters: Up 19-7 with five minutes to go in Seattle, a venue where most visiting teams have no chance to win, Green Bay, led by the NFL's best QB, Aaron Rodgers, goes three-and-out with three weak runs. On the next series, Russell Wilson throws his fourth interception of the day. Green Bay takes over near midfield with less than four minutes to play. Run, run, run, punt. Rodgers never throws the ball.

Next, a Packers defense that had successfully contained Seattle's offense all day allows them to score a touchdown in less than a minute, then loses the on-side kick when it goes through the hands of a backup tight end, then gives up another touchdown by being unable to tackle either Marshawn Lynch or Russell Wilson on long runs, then gives up a two-point conversion that Wilson just threw up for grabs as he was going down, then ties it up with a field goal to send it to overtime (even though it would have won them the game except for the miracle two-point conversion), then loses the overtime coin toss, then gives up a Hail-Mary touchdown pass on the first Seattle possession in overtime.

Go ahead. Let it out.

Count it up. 1) Three and out. 2) Intercepted Wilson AGAIN! 3) Three and out. 4) Gives up TD. 5) Loses onside kick. 6) Gives up go-ahead touchdown. 7) Gives up impossible two-point conversion. 8) Can't score winning TD, settles for overtime. 9) Loses OT coin toss. 10) Gives up game-winning TD on Hail-Mary pass on Seattle's first possession. Ten disastrous events, all coming after they held a 12-point lead with five minutes to play.

Thank you, Green Bay. You've just relieved me of 30 years of football futility. I'd like to tell you that you'll get over it someday, but that day is likely to be a long time coming.

AFC Championship Preview

Well, for most of the country who doesn't have a vested rooting interest in an AFC team, this is the game they all wanted. Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning, round four: New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos. The last time these two quarterbacks met in an AFC Championship Game, it resulted in what I wrote about in 2007 as "The Best Football Game of All Time." We should probably expect the same this time around.

When these two teams met earlier this year in New England, Denver jumped out to a big lead at halftime and then squandered it in the second half. Like I wrote in 2007, New England is Jason Voorhees, Michael Myers, and Freddy Krueger all rolled up into one unstoppable killing machine. And as much as it pains me to write this, I think that's what we can expect to see unfold in Denver this Sunday afternoon. Let me break it down quarter by quarter...

First Quarter: Both teams punt on their first possession, but New England gets the first score toward the end of the quarter after a long drive. NE 7, DEN 0.

Second Quarter: Peyton gets rolling and puts up two touchdowns. Brady follows with a quick drive, throwing the ball down field at will through the porous Denver secondary. Peyton drives the Broncos down field in a two-minute drill that results in a half-ending field goal. DEN 17, NE 14.

Third Quarter: Denver gets the ball first and kicks another field goal. Both defenses tighten up, and each team only manages one TD in this quarter. DEN 27, NE 21.

Fourth Quarter: Brady starts to light it up, once again taking advantage of the fact that Denver's defensive backs are about as effective against the pass as the Titanic was against icebergs. New England scores two touchdowns, while all Denver can muster throughout most of the fourth quarter is another field goal. With less than four minutes to play in the game, New England kicks off to Denver with the score NE 35, DEN 30.

Now is the time where Peyton does what he's done so many times before. With pinpoint accuracy and the calm that comes from the fact that he is a cold-blooded assassin, Manning drives the Broncos across the goal line for the go-ahead touchdown, putting Denver up 37-35. There's only one problem: there are 55 second left to play in the game, and New England still has two time outs.

Brady takes the ball on his own 20 yard line. The Denver pass rush doesn't get within a mile—high, low, or any direction—of Brady at any point. Denver's pass defense brings to mind other notable defensive stalwarts like the French infantry in WW2 or Saddam Hussein's Republican Guard, and four plays later, with four seconds remaining, Stephen Gostkowski kicks a 38-yard field goal to give the Patriots the AFC Championship with a final score of 38-37.

At this point, I once again vow never to watch another NFL game for as long as I live. My wife will roll her eyes in long-suffering derision.

Why do they call it "golf"?

Way back in the early nineties, I was playing golf with my friend and roommate Bill Williams at a public course in Columbia. I love to play golf, but I stink. I've never shot better than 50 for nine holes, and that's with a liberal amount of mulligans. Anyway, we were joined early on by a couple of older guys—in their fifties or sixties, I guessed—around the second or third hole, and I found myself just butchering the fifth or sixth, taking my usual 8 or 9 on a par four. This prompted one of the older players to ask me, "Do you know why they call it 'golf'?" I shook my head.

"Because 'Oh, #&@$!' was already taken."

It's my favorite weekend of golf, the U.S. Open, and I'm pretty sure NBC's on-course microphones are on a seven-second delay so as not to inadvertently broadcast "#&@$," "$#^%," and the ever-popular "%@#$&#@$%#!" sure to be uttered by so many of these talented golfers this weekend.

What makes the U.S. Open great is a sadistic cruelty inflicted by the United States Golf Association on its annual entrants. It's great because it makes these ridiculously good professionals (and a few great amateurs) look like...well, like me.

Well, maybe not just like me, but you see the kind of shots that weekend duffers all over the country deal with consistently. Because of the difficulty of the course—especially the course at Merion near Philadelphia this week—you see beautiful tee shots take a bad bounce into deep rough, followed by rough shots that only go 100 yards. Back on the fairway, they'll put a wedge less than ten feet away from the hole, only the watch the putt slide right by the hole.

Merion has played like the Marquis de Sade of golf courses so far this week. I'm in the midst of watching third round coverage on a Saturday afternoon, and the tournament lead is at -1. Phil Mickelson, a five-time runner up in this tournament, is two strokes back, evidently getting a head start on choking away this title. Tiger is at +6; NBC keeps him on mute and won't show a close-up when he talks for fear of offending astute lip-readers.

These greens are just insane—almost impossible to read and evidently equipped with ball-repelling force fields, a new innovation from the dungeon masters at the USGA. I'm waiting for someone to freak out and start breaking clubs over his knees and tossing them into a pond (my money's on Tiger—he's just having a miserable round).

There used to be a PGA Tour ad with the tagline, "These guys are good." The U.S. Open should use this for their promos:

Adam Wainwright: Baseball's Best Pitcher

The discussion this year really should be about whether Cardinals ace starter Adam Wainwright will win his second (or perhaps his third) Cy Young award. He should have finished second to Chris Carpenter (or won the thing outright) in 2009 when the award inexplicably went to Tim Lincecum. He finished second to Roy Halladay in 2010 despite having a lower ERA.

I'm less bitter about Halladay than Lincecum, which was just a travesty. It will also be a travesty this year if Waino continues to pitch in the form we've seen so far this season and loses the Cy Young again to someone less deserving but closer to the myopic media centers on the East and West coasts. 

For example? Clayton Kershaw (LA)—great ERA, but only a 5-4 record. Jordan Zimmerman (WAS)—9-3, but team is barely above .500. Sure, if you look at a variety of different statistics, you can make a case for a variety of pitchers who deserve accolades at this stage of the season. But baseball is more than just statistics—it's also about chemistry and leadership.

Wainwright is on his second full season following Tommy John surgery, and he's more dominant than ever. He has full command of all his pitches, especially his vicious and destructive curveball. He has also emerged as the undisputed leader of the Cardinals young, talented pitching staff. All of the Cardinals highly touted rookie arms look to Wainwright for guidance and wisdom.

Wainwright inherited the leadership role from Chris Carpenter when Carp went down with nerve damage, and even if he makes it back to the staff this season, the pitching staff still belongs to Waino. He's also the team's undisputed stopper, the one you want on the mound after a tough loss.

He's always likely to strike out 8-12 hitters, pitch at least 7-8 strong innings, walk no one, and give up two runs or less. He's the first pitcher in the NL to reach 10 wins this season, and he's in the top four in ERA and strikeouts. A sure-fire All-Star selection, he's likely to get the start in New York this summer.

But if that doesn't convince you, just watch this:

He's got MOVES!

The Tebow Dilemma

One thing I've never understood about the whole Tim Tebow phenomenon—both the good and the bad—is how so many people use one's opinion about Tebow's abilities to play quarterback at the NFL level as a litmus test of religious faith. Simply put, Tebow is, by all accounts, a young man of strong faith who professes a public commitment to living a Christ-centered life. Wonderful. He's also a lousy NFL quarterback. Not as wonderful.

In this age of social media and instant offense at the slightest of remarks, pointing out that Tebow's skill at QB in the NFL is atrocious has become akin to pounding another nail through Jesus's wrist. What? Since when did religious faith of any kind have anything at all to do with a person's athletic skill? The history of the NFL is full of outstanding QBs who range from strong men of faith (Kurt Warner) to others who wouldn't get within a zip code of any of my daughters (Ben Roethlisberger). One has nothing to do with the other.

Except with Tim Tebow. To criticize his ability is taken by his most vehement supporters as a slight to the faith. I'm sorry to inform those people of this simple fact, but here it is: Jesus himself, if he were an NFL head coach, wouldn't start Tebow at QB. Get over it.

That leads us to Bill Belichick, who will never be confused at any time for Jesus Christ. He has, for some unseen reason, decided to sign Tebow as a third-string QB for the New England Patriots. The connection is, of course, NE offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, Tebow's head coach in Denver. Is this charity? Did McDaniels convince Belichick that Tebow still has real potential? Only time will tell, but from my seat here in the midwest, I can think of a few scenarios.

1) Tebow will be a third-string quarterback. This is the most likely. I find it hard to see Tebow outplaying Ryan Mallet—an unbelievably skilled QB at Arkansas—for the second-string job. And Tebow has as much chance of beating out Tom Brady for the job as he does convincing Brady's wife Giselle Bundchen of running away to Florida with him. So he rides the pine and holds a clipboard. Glamorous job, huh? 

2) Tebow will be a gimmick player. He'll be used sparingly on gadget and gimmick plays like direct snaps from the RB position, or some variation of the wildcat offense. This seems even less likely from either Belichick's or Brady's standpoint. Bringing Tebow in every once in a while does nothing to make your offense more potent. The Jets proved that when Tebow only comes in once or twice a game, it's easy  to stop him.

3) Belichick and McDaniels finally convince Tebow to play a different position. This is the idea that makes the most sense. He can run the ball better than most fullbacks. I assume he could catch from either the RB or the TE position. And, every once in a while, he could throw the ball downfield (his long arm is much better than his short game—watch his Denver games and see). In fact, Tebow could be a whole new type of position player: the Hybrid. You really don't know what he's going to do—run? Pass? Catch? All of the above on one play? He would be a bigger star in this role than he would ever be as a below-average QB.

There's nothing wrong, absolutely no shame, in being the best that you can be at what you do well. The best that Tebow can be as a QB is to sit on the bench as a third-stringer. The best that he could be as a hybrid RB/FB/TE/QB is create an entirely new position; he could be a real pioneer in the evolution of the offensive game in the same way we see with players like RGIII and Colin Kaepernick. 

I don't know who keeps telling Tim Tebow that it's his destiny to be a starting NFL QB. I don't think it's Jesus, and I don't think it's going to be Bill Belichick, either. Maybe one of them can convince him that a successful career leads down a much different path. 

Playoff picks destined to be laughably wrong

NFC Playoffs
1. San Francisco
2. Atlanta
3. Chicago
4. Dallas
5. Green Bay
6. Carolina

Wild Card Games
Chicago over Carolina
Green Bay over Dallas

Divisional Games
Atlanta over Chicago
San Francisco over Green Bay

NFC Championship
San Francisco over Atlanta

AFC Playoffs
1. Baltimore
2. Houston
3. New England
4. Denver
5. Cincinnati
6. Buffalo

Wild Card Games
New England over Buffalo
Denver over Cincinnati

Divisional Games
Baltimore over Denver
Houston over New England

AFC Championship
Baltimore over Houston

Superbowl
Baltimore over San Francisco in the battle of the Harbaugh brothers

2012 NFL Preview: The American Football Conference

One of the reasons I'm really excited about this season is that it's the first real indication of team strength that we've seen in the NFL in three seasons. Last season was damaged due to the lockout, and the year before that, teams didn't make many moves due to uncertainty about the future collective bargaining agreement. So this year, we see which teams got better, which teams got old, and which teams are building for the future. This dynamic couldn't be any clearer than it is in the AFC.

I said, "I'm a giant douche bag!"

AFC East
1) New England Patriots (12-4)
2) Buffalo Bills (10-6)
3) New York Jets (7-9)
4) Miami Dolphins (2-14)

As long as Brady and Belichick are together, this is a playoff team, but everyone gets older. The Bills take another step forward, building on their potential from last year's surprising start. The Tebow circus in New York will more than likely usher loudmouth HC Rex Ryan out the door. Miami, like Tampa, features a professional [sic] football organization.

Are you sure? I thought the
Village People had a football player.

AFC NORTH
1) Baltimore Ravens (13-3)
2) Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)
3) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
4) Cleveland Browns (5-11)

The Ravens need to take advantage of what is almost certainly the last hurrah of their Hall of Fame-bound veteran defenders. It's also time for Joe Flacco to take the same leap forward that Eli Manning did last year from game manager to clutch time leader. Also, his receivers need to HOLD ON TO THE DAMN BALL! Marvin Lewis will continue to overachieve with a Bengals team that will be better still than last year. My friends who are Steelers fans will hate me for saying this, but they are just getting too old, and Ben's health is a huge concern this season. Cleveland is, well, Cleveland, and that ain't good.

Nah, it doesn't make any more sense
when you turn it upside down.

AFC SOUTH
1) Houston Texans (13-3)
2) Tennessee Titans (8-8)
3) Indianapolis Colts (4-12)
4) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)

If Matt Schaub can stay healthy, the Texans are my top pick to represent the AFC in the Superbowl this year. The Titans are still developing under Jake Locker; Andrew Luck will put up some great numbers, but the Colts are obviously still operating under the rebuilding paradigm. Jaguars players can look forward to shopping for real estate in southern California in a year or two. Blaine Gabbert would have done much better in Minnesota.

OW! MY NECK!! Sorry guys,
I was just messing with you!

AFC WEST
1) Denver (10-6)
2) San Diego (9-7)
3) Oakland (8-8)
4) Kansas City (6-10)

Come on, would I ever pick against Peyton Manning? If they went 8-8 with Tebow, they should, at the very least, win the division. San Diego will keep spinning its wheels until they hire a new head coach. Oakland will continue to baffle us with potential that's never fulfilled (kind of like Carson Palmer's career), and sorry KC fans...I'm just not feeling any love for Romeo.

Tomorrow: Playoff picks destined to be laughably wrong.

2012 NFL Preview: The National Football Conference

Sing along with me..."It's the most wonderful tiiiiiime, of the yeeeeeeear!" This week marks the beginning of the new NFL season, that glorious time of hopes, dreams and new possibilities...at least until Tuesday morning, when 1/3 of the fan base realizes this year is going to just suuuuuuuck! Since my favorite teams are the Vikings, Rams, and Colts Broncos, I expect to be 200% disappointed in precisely one week. In the meantime, my guess is as good as yours as to how the NFC is going to shake out. Check back after Christmas in order to more effectively flame my stupidity.

NFC EAST
1. Dallas (10-6)
2. NY Giants (9-7)
3. Philadelphia Eagles (7-9)
4. Washington Redskins (6-10)

Dallas has too much talent on both sides of the ball not to take a conference that will be down in terms of record due to Superbowl hangover and depletion of roster (Giants), age and injuries (Eagles) and rookie QB with mad skills but rookie experience ('Skins). It's the Cowboys by default...I think.

NFC NORTH
1. Chicago Bears (12-4)
2. Green Bay Packers (11-5)
3. Detroit Lions (10-6)
4. Minnesota Vikings (6-10)

This year is the year Jay Cutler finally stays healthy, stays upright, and puts together a division-winning season. Green Bay will fall victim to a suspect defense, the Lions will take a step back after finally crawling out of the basement, and the Vikings...well, at least they're getting a new stadium and won't be moving to Los Angeles.

NFC SOUTH
1. Atlanta (12-4)
2. Carolina (10-6)
3. New Orleans (9-7)
4. Tampa Bay (5-11)

Matty Ice and the Dirty Birds are probably the most explosive offense in terms of both running and passing in the division, and head coach Mike Smith will have them back in the playoffs as a division winner. Cam Newton will propel the Panthers back into playoff contention and be part of the MVP discussion. New Orleans will play hard but eventually succumb to the devastation wrought by their bounty conviction. Tampa Bay still features a professional [sic] football organization.

NFC WEST
1. San Francisco (13-3)
2. Seattle Seahawks (8-8)
3. St. Louis Rams (6-10)
4. Arizona Cardinals (3-13)

The Niners win this division by default, racking up six division wins just by showing up. The smartest thing this organization did since drafting Joe Montana was hiring Jim Harbaugh as their head coach. Seattle doesn't have an experienced QB at the helm, which will cost them 2-3 wins they could have had otherwise. The Rams will show improvement under the lash of new HC Jeff Fisher, and the Cardinals get to draft Matt Barkley out of USC. I mean, what could go wrong drafting a USC QB #1?

Later today (maybe) or this week (perhaps): AFC Preview

I finished a triathlon!

Today I completed my first triathlon, and I learned the most important lesson: my training really didn’t prepare me for the intensity of the experience, but finishing has strengthened my resolve to train harder and smarter for the next time around.

We arrived (me, Amy, and our son Scott) at Lake Wappapello in southeast Missouri a little after 6 a.m. The parking lot at the visitor’s center was more than half full, and the bike racks were filling up quickly. Most of the competitors were clearly experienced triathletes, and I felt just like the new kid on the first day of school.

I was worried at first about the water temperature—the air was in the upper sixties when we arrived—but that didn’t turn out to be the major issue. As it turned out, I trained for a completely different environment. I did all of my swimming in a pool, but the lake’s water was so murky that swimming face down in the water was pointless. I tried to swim freestyle with my head up to keep on track with the buoy markers, but before long, I had to resort to breaststroking.

Anyone who remembers me from high school swim team knows that breaststroke was by far my worst event. Slow. Tired. Ugh. But I had no choice. By the time I made it to the furthest marker, I had 180 yards to go, and I could barely breathe. I switched to a slow backstroke and tried to conserve energy, but it took all I had left just to stay afloat and keep moving.

By the time I reached the boat ramp exit, I was spent, gasping for air and barely able to move. Lesson learned: if the event is open water swimming in a lake, train with breaststroke instead of freestyle. But the damage was done, because physically, I never did recover. I might have been better off just sitting out for five or ten minutes until my heart rate dropped, but I had already done what I was determined not to do—blow out my energy on the swim.

The bike route was next—almost 16 miles with a bunch of killer hills. By the time I got past the second mile, the leaders of the race were already on their way back. I had to not only walk up the first big hill, but I had to stop to catch my breath and lower my heart rate. I was breathing so hard that I started coughing, and even as I write this, I can’t take a deep breath without coughing—it feels like bronchitis. On the bright side, the rest of my body feels okay, and my pulse rate and blood pressure are both great.

As I mentioned earlier this week on Facebook, there was a steep hill that went for almost a full mile just after the halfway turn. I didn’t get far before I had to walk, but at least another biker was in the same spot, and we got to experience a little camaraderie on the way up. Once I made it to the top, getting back took a while just because I kept my bike low-geared and tried to conserve as much energy as I could for the run.

The run was uneventful—it was more like a walk interrupted by periods of slow jogging. This was the one area where my training did pay off. I knew to save enough energy on the bike that I could do 5 kilometers without collapsing. The final 3/4-mile ran along the long, straight road long the top of the lake dam. I had my iPod playing my two favorite finishing songs: “Rooftops” by Jesus Culture and “Cannons” by Phil Wickham, and even though I was the last to cross the finish line, the crowd at the finish was clapping and cheering me across the line. I found one last burst of speed, crossed the line, then collapsed in a heap of exhausted joy.

At one point during the bike ride, when it felt like I would never be able to finish, I wondered if I would even want to try this again. Now that I’ve had the day to consider the experience, I definitely want to do another triathlon. Next time I’ll know how to train better and what to expect. Perhaps the next time, whenever and wherever that may be, I’ll be able to enjoy the experience while I’m in the midst of it instead of just the satisfaction of knowing that I finished.

Into Uncharted Territory

About six weeks ago, I wrote here that my goal of completing a triathlon was my version of a midlife crisis. Turning 44 and watching my weight creep back up over 225 after getting as low as 205 (my marriage day weight) was disheartening. I have type 2 diabetes (thank you, Coca-Cola!) and was facing the prospect that my window for significant physical activity was rapidly closing.

Being a married father of six kind of rules out skydiving and mountain climbing for me, so this seemed like the kind of "big" physical challenge that carried an aspect of uncertainty. Could I really do this? A sprint triathlon for a forty-year-old is no big deal, but I was pretty sedentary before starting out on training for this event.

So what did I do this past week? I swam for 600 yards on two occasions. I biked for 30 minutes, ran for 10, and then walked for 20 (these are called "brick" workouts because when you're done, your muscles feel like bricks). On Saturday, I ran four miles in 50 minutes, and then yesterday, I biked 20 miles in a little more than an hour-and-a-half, followed immediately by a 30-minute walk covering two miles.

It was in the walk that I realized that I'm doing things physically today that I've never done at any point in my life, much less middle age. I played football and wrestled a little in high school, but I never took that seriously.

In college, I could run a mile in 6.5 minutes, but I also smoked about a pack of cigarettes a day. Twenty years ago I was 24 years old and weighed about 190. But I also smoked and drank to excess on a regular basis. Could I have trained for a triathlon back then? I'm sure that I could have, but I sure didn't, and I wouldn't have been interested in doing so, either.

I quit drinking about five months after turning 24, and that caused my smoking to increase dramatically for the next couple of years. I got married at 27, and two things happen to a lot of men that happened to me: having a loving wife means you're less concerned with staying fit and looking good, and my wife was (and still is) a tremendously good cook. I put on 30 pounds in the first year I was married and never took it off until last year, when I went from 265 to 205 by radically changing my eating habits in response to the diabetes diagnosis.

Physically, I never did more than walking and occasionally jogging while losing the bulk of my weight. But since the end of 2011, I've been backsliding into bad eating habits and avoiding exercise. However, the past six weeks of training have brought me to a place I've never been before. I can run for almost an hour and still function for the rest of the day. I biked 20 miles yesterday, and I'm walking around today (but sore, ouch! so sore).

The triathlon is 19 days from today. I'm no longer wondering or even worried if I'll finish. Now I'm actually starting to think about finishing times and maybe even competing for a spot in the top three. My body is transforming itself in ways that I never experienced, even when I was younger and it would have been easier to achieve this level of fitness. Who knew that my midlife crisis would actually turn out to be productive?

Triathlon Training: Week One Review

Last week, I wrote about my plans to compete in a sprint-distance triathlon at the end of August. In preparation for this, I found a great website called trinewbies.com that has a newcomers training program. Because it's an 11-week program and I only have nine weeks to train, I jumped in at the end of week two on the training schedule. So what I'm calling my week one review is actually the third week in the newbies training schedule. However, I'm a strong swimmer and a regular walker, so I wasn't starting from "couch potato." Here's what happened:

Monday
Monday's an official "day off," but the program recommends at least two days of light weight training, a good balance of upper- and lower-body conditioning, so I went through the program. They say to keep the weight light, which is great for me, because in terms of weight-lifting, I am really weak—I mean 5-lb. or 10-lb. dumbbells max weak. Really, really sore after this.

Tuesday
Swam 300 yards, walked/jogged 20 min. Piece of cake, but still really sore, especially in my lats and delts, which makes swimming painful at first.

Wednesday
The training program said to bike six miles, but I was supposed to bike eight the previous Sunday and only did six, so I did eight today. However, my old bike went kaput while I was trying to make it road-ready, so I had to invest in a new mountain bike. Sometimes I am just grateful that Walmart really does sell for less. Loved the new bike (pictured right) and did eight miles on a really hot day.

Thursday
Swam 400 yards, which is the swimming distance, but not all at once. I'm actually swimming an extra hundred yards more than the training schedule says because I'm already such a strong swimmer. The twist today was that as soon as I got out of the pool, I walked 30 minutes. I'm not as sore as I was just a few days ago, and I felt good after the walk. Another plus, our local indoor pool also has an indoor walking track, so I avoided the 100+ degree heat.

Friday
Another "day off," another day of weight training. Same weights, but not as sore. Progress!

Saturday
Like much of the country, we are in a terrible heat wave in southeast Missouri. Today I had a 30-minute run scheduled, so I did it at 9 a.m. before the thermometer got into the nineties. The temperature topped out at 107 in the afternoon—too hot for late-day training.

Sunday
Sunday's temps were even higher than Saturday's, so I got up at 6:30 a.m. and did ten miles on the bike before going to church. Advantages: cooler, little car traffic, getting stronger on the bike. Disadvantages: Dogs. Lots of dogs out in the mornings. They do not like bicycles. When I finished the ride, I walked/jogged a quarter-mile just to see if my legs would hold up—they did. For the first time, I started to feel like I could actually do this thing!

My Midlife Crisis

So I turned 44 this past Thursday. A few days before that happened, I told my wife, Amy, that I wanted to talk to her about something. We found a quiet spot in the back of the house, and I laid it all out for her.

"I'm going to have a midlife crisis," I said. "I'm not buying a sports car, and I don't want a girlfriend. I want to do a triathlon." Being the type of supportive wife that she is, she was supportive of the idea. I, on the other hand, suspect I have no idea what I'm getting myself into.

I found the entry form at the local indoor swimming facility. I had lunch back around Christmas time with an old friend from grade school, Chuck Mickey, who competes in those "Strongest Man" competitions that you sometimes see on ESPN at odd hours. We talked about a lot of things, but he planted an idea in my head about staying in shape in our forties: "You gotta compete, man."

I found out in November of 2010 that I ate myself into Type II Diabetes. That first year was all about eating healthy and exercising. I dropped from 265 to 205 in nine months. For the past year, I've been backsliding here and there, and I've crept back up to 225. Just managing my diabetes isn't going to be enough motivation for me. So I'm gonna compete.

I'm going to use this blog for the next two months to keep a running diary of my training progress. The triathlon is scheduled for Saturday, August 25 at Lake Wappapello, about half an hour from where I live. I found a great website, www.trinewbies.com that has all kinds of great training information. I also have a friend at church, Tom Pierce, who's a fitness fanatic. I don't know if he inspires me or scares the hell out of me. It's probably a little bit of both.

It's a "sprint triathlon," which means 400 yards swimming, 15 miles bicycling, and 5 kilometers running. My goal is to finish without dropping dead during or shortly after. The training program I'm using is an 11-week program, but with the event approaching, I'm jumping right in at the end of the second week of training.

So what have I done so far? I swam 600 yards Friday afternoon. The swimming is a piece of cake for me. I'll just need to train to build my endurance, but the swimming is definitely my strong suit. I haven't been on a bicycle in a couple of years, so that's going to be interesting. I'm scheduled to ride six miles tomorrow. Today I ran/walked (that's the training plan) two miles in twenty minutes. I'm tired!

I hope those of you who follow "The Sandlot" will follow along with me on this little journey. I don't mind turning 44. I like the maturity that forty-plus years affords. But I'm planning on working through my late sixties before I retire. When that happens, I want to be fit and healthy enough to enjoy a few of those golden years. So I'm gonna compete.

And I'm gonna finish.

NFL Wild Card Weekend: Sunday's Games

Atlanta at New York Giants, 12 p.m. CST (FOX)

My gut is telling me that Atlanta could pull off the upset in this game, but after watching Houston dominate Cincinnati on both sides of the ball yesterday, I can't go that way. Why not? I think the Giants are better than Houston, they're playing at home, and Atlanta is a dome team playing outside. Added to that, if there was an offensive MVP for December, it was definitely Eli Manning,  who has been cash money in the fourth quarter this season. Atlanta has been inconsistent at best, while the Giants have once again put things together late in the season. I think the Giants win this one without the need for Eli's fourth quarter heroics.
Giants 31, Falcons 17

Pittsburgh at Denver, 3:30 p.m. CST (CBS)

I was chatting with my good friend Tuck last week, who is a Steelers fan. I asked him if he was worried about Ben Roethisberger's bad ankle and the Steelers' offensive struggles recently going up against a good Denver defense and Tebow's unlikely success. His reply: "If I gave you Tebow, and I took [Troy] Polamalu and [James] Harrison, would you take that bet? Of course you would—IN BIZARRO WORLD!" That about sums it up for me. Harrison is going to torment Tebow, and when he throws up (pun intended) one of his dying quail passes, Polamalu's going to grab it and take it to the house. Again, I don't see any fourth quarter heroics in this one.
Steelers 34, Broncos 13

Saturday recap

Houston 31, Cincinnati 10

Kudos to the Texans for winning their first playoff game in franchise history, and they did it by outplaying the Bengals on both sides of the ball. If I were the Ravens, I'd be worried about stopping the Texans' running game since I'm gonna have to keep double-coverage on Andre Johnson. T.J. Yates has his work cut out for him against the Ravens defense, but he didn't look like a rookie yesterday; Andy Dalton did.
My prediction: Bengals 17, Texans 13


New Orleans 45, Detroit 28

I decided last week that since I don't have a horse in this year's race, I wanted to climb on the "Who Dat?" bandwagon. Having said that, I was a bit worried in the first half. Detroit was making huge plays on offense, and the Saints gave up two turnovers. Then the second half rolled around, and the Saints did their Road Runner imitation. Remember when the coyote got up to top speed and almost caught the Road Runner? RR would then turn around, go "Meep-Meep!", stick his tongue out, and then kick in the afterburners, leaving the coyote in the dust. That's the Saints. If someone knocks off Green Bay next week, the Saints are going to the Superbowl.
My prediction: Saints 45, Lions 38

There's No Crying in Baseball!

But there was certainly a sea of wailing and an ocean of gnashing of teeth last night after the Cardinals bullpen puked up a four-run lead in the top of the ninth inning, giving up six runs to the Mets and blowing not only a series sweep but a chance to move within one game of NL wild card leaders Atlanta with just six games left to play. It was, by any measure, a disgusting and disheartening loss.

But there's no crying in baseball. Tony LaRussa wasn't crying after the game. He said they were disappointed but not heartbroken. He sent a clear message to his team and the league: this was one loss, a tough loss, but tomorrow is another day. And he's right. Baseball players, more than any other sport, need to have little-to-no short-term memory. The Cubs—out of the postseason again, as always—are coming to St. Louis for the last home series of the year. Yesterday is gone. Today is all that matters.

While a sweep would have put the Cardinals in a better position, maybe a giant plate of humble pie will remind this team that they cannot score enough runs to be complacent. Our pitchers can't take any pitch for granted, and walks are simply unacceptable at this point in the season. Our defense can't just shrug off an error that negates a double-play and probably seals yesterday's victory. They just can't let up for even a moment. If they remember that much, at least, then Cardinal Nation still has reason to hope.

Let's take a look at the weekend series for St. Louis and Atlanta. The bottom line is this: if we win two of three and the Braves lose two of three, we're tied going into the final three games. Atlanta hosts Philly, and the Cardinals go to Houston. I like those odds. But what about this weekend?

St. Louis sends Chris Carpenter (10-9, 3.66 ERA) vs. Ryan Dempster (10-13, 4.63 ERA) tonight in the series opener. Saturday's matchup features Cubs starter Rodrigo Lopez (6-6, 4.71 ERA) against resurgent Cards starter Kyle Lohse (14-8, 3.47 ERA). Sunday's home closer will see the Cubs' Casey Coleman (3-8, 6.64 ERA) take the mound against St. Louis' newest starter, Edwin Jackson, (12-9, 3.85 ERA). Again, I like the odds on paper. A sweep keeps the pressure on Atlanta.

The Braves go to Washington to take on the Nationals, who are playing better baseball here at the end of the season. Here are the pitching matchups: Friday—ATL, Tim Hudson (15-10, 3.19 ERA) vs. WAS, Stephen Strasburg (0-0, 1.29 ERA); Saturday—ATL, Brandon Beachy (7-2, 3.58 ERA) vs. WAS, Chien-Ming Wang (3-3, 4.31); Sunday—ATL, Mike Minor (5-2. 4.27 ERA) vs. WAS, Ross Detwiler (previously a relief pitcher, 3.30 ERA). The pitching matchups seem to favor the Braves, although if Strasburg has his great stuff, the Nats have the edge in the first game, at least.

Looking back to the series in St. Louis, Dempster is 0-5 in his last five starts, and Carpenter is pitching the way we all expected Chris Carpenter to pitch. The Cardinals aren't going to back into the playoffs if they make it at all. This is a moment for the bold and the fearless. Let's see if the Cardinals have what it takes to rise above a tough loss and take the glory for themselves.

There's still much work to do

Now I'm not about to try to pass myself off as some sort of prophet, because before this weekend series between the Cardinals and the Phillies, I was only stating the most obvious point: the Cardinals had to, at the very least, win three of four from the Phillies to have a chance to catch Atlanta for the NL Wild Card. After Saturday night's eighth-inning bullpen meltdown and Roy Halladay looming on Monday's pitching matchups, it looked like a sister-kissing split was the best we could hope for.

Let's all be thankful for pleasant surprises. Enigmatic Cardinals starter Kyle Lohse reverted to the form that helped him land a fat contract and actually outpitched the Cy Young candidate Halladay, and the bullpen managed NOT to cough up a 4-1 lead in the ninth as the Redbirds left the City of Brotherly Battery Throwing with three wins out of four in their pocket.

In the meantime, the Atlanta Braves, doing their best to imitate Boston's epic wild card meltdown in the AL, lost another game to minor-league powerhouse Florida, thus reducing their lead in the NL wild card race over St. Louis to 2-1/2 games.

The Cardinals should be commended for not giving up when by all rational accounts, they were far out of the race for the postseason. Their resurgence came under the cloud of injuries, poor hitting (leading the league in double-plays), suspect defense, and a bullpen with the stability of a Molotov cocktail. To be sure, Atlanta's descent plays an important role, but the Cardinals could have phoned it in and no one would have noticed--Cardinal Nation tuned out after we fell more than 10 games behind Milwaukee.

But the Cardinals haven't actually accomplished anything yet. They still have to make up 2-1/2 games, and they only have nine games left in the season. Up first, six at home this week against the Mets (73-80) and the Cubs (68-86), then the final three at Houston (53-100). Allow me to attempt to be a prophet now, even if it is blindingly obvious: the Cardinals must win nine in a row to win the NL wild card and sneak into the playoffs.

Atlanta has two more games at Florida, then three at Washington, followed by the final three at home against Philly. Assuming that Philly is resting starters for those final three, it's not out of the question that the Braves could easily win 7 of 8, which would still clinch it for them. And let's not forget the Giants, who are only one game behind the Cardinals. They're on the road at LA, Arizona, then home against Colorado. Theirs seems like a tougher road, but they have solid pitching, so they could still end up on top.

The formula for the Cardinals is simple--they have to play better than they have to get over this last wall. The defense must be airtight. Batters must stop grounding into double-plays, especially with men in scoring position. And the bullpen must tighten up all the screws and slam that door shut, especially in the eighth and ninth innings.

Easier said than done? Of course! But we're home for six, then at Houston, who've already lost 100 games this season. We've come this far by playing barely above-average baseball. The official MLB playoffs may still be a couple of weeks away, but they've already started for the Cardinals, and from here on out, they need to play as if every game is the seventh in the series.