The added drama this year is that no one can predict which of the two teams will show up to play, much less what the outcome will be. There are four basic either/or scenarios on either side of the ball, and I can't remember the math formula that gives you an estimate of the possible outcomes, but here's how I break it out for each team.
Packers' Offense: MVP or MIA?
Jordan Love is your classic feast or famine quarterback. Some weeks, he looks like the unholy love child of Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, completing most of his passes even when he chucks up a dying quail as he's getting it only to fall into the hands of an uncovered wide open tight end for a touchdown. Yeah, I've seen it happen. It's like fucking witchcraft or something.
On the other hand, Love has also been at the helm this season for losses to the Browns (?!), the Panthers, and the Eagles, in which he scored, respectively, 10, 13, and 7 points. Yes, all three of those teams have good defenses, but did you see the soul-crushing interception Love threw at the end of the Browns game? He looked like a high school freshman throwing his first pass on that play.
So, who's going to show up against the Vikings? Will he pick apart a weak Vikings secondary, or will he struggle to overcome the pressure from Brian Flores' blitz schemes? Flip a coin, because I have no idea.
Packers' Defense: Whither Micah Parsons?
The trade that brought Parsons, one of the best pass rushers in the league, from Dallas to Green Bay, looked at the time like the last piece in a championship puzzle for the Packers. Since that time, Parsons has been good, but has he been great? Has he been a game-wrecker? Not really.
Parsons has had eight sacks on the year, which is seventh in the league, but three of those sacks came against a bad Arizona team in a game the Packers only won by four points, 27-23. Sack leader Miles Garrett of Cleveland has 15 sacks, but none of them came against Minnesota, who neutralized Garrett for only three tackles on the game.
So, will Parson's add to the Vikings' ongoing QB woes, or will the recently improved Vikings' O-line keep him in check? The Magic 8-Ball says, "Ask Again Later."
Vikings' Offense: Is it the fourth quarter yet?
I won't sugar-coat it—JJ McCarthy has played terrible for most of his starts. However, he has shown flashes of brilliance in engineering end-of-game drives that have either won the game or given the Vikings a late lead. What's the disconnect? I think it's because he's just thinking too much during the regular drives.
When he's in the two-minute drill, and they have to score, he's playing without thinking. He's just hitting the first open receiver he spots, and he's putting the ball on-target. He has the physical skills to succeed, and he's demonstrated that he can engineer scoring drives at crucial times. What we're waiting to see is if that ability exists outside of the end of the game.
So, can McCarthy put together 60 minutes of average QB play? His two best performances were in-division road games at Chicago and Detroit, so maybe Lambeau Field will inspire him to succeed. Or maybe he just sucks. Who knows?
Vikings' Defense: Evil Genius or Dr. Doofus?
Sometimes Flores' defensive schemes look amazing, and the Vikings' defense is flying around the field, pressuring and sacking the quarterback, stuffing the run, and breaking up passes. Other times they look like they forgot how to tackle the person with the ball.
I don't blame the defense for the Vikings' woes this season. I think, given injuries and the fact they have to play twice as many minutes as the opposition's defense because of Minnesota's offensive struggles, they've performed about as well as we can expect. But will they get to Love and force him into his typical pattern of mistakes, or will they stumble around like they ate too many brats the night before?
So, which defense shows up for the Purple? I rolled some dice, but I never came up with sevens or snake eyes.
Just to make this game even more fun/frustrating, I have an ongoing wager with my friend and former bandmate Joe Bancroft, an insufferable Packers fan, that when our two teams square up, the loser has to wear the winner's head gear. That's him in a Vikings cap in the picture above. I have a bad feeling he's going to stop by on Sunday afternoon and force me to wear the Cheesehead.
Prediction: An average Jordan Love performance scores enough points to edge out an improved McCarthy game in which the Packers' defense does enough at home to win, while the Vikings get burned in the passing game.
Packers 24, Vikings 20
See you Sunday, Joe.
1 comment:
Hope your prediction is true, my biggest gripe with gb, is they use the leading talent on the field till it breaks, instead of pushing the second stringers early. This would give 1st string a breath and give reps to hopefully improve 2nd string. Here's to 20 something years of rivalry
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