There is no Plan B

Vikings fans know hopelessness, but this is something altogether new.

After an embarrassing 23-6 loss to Green Bay, an uncomfortable truth must be clear to all who've been unfortunate enough to watch the Vikings play this year: JJ McCarthy is not ready to play quarterback in the NFL.

I don't know enough about the nuts and bolts of professional football to speculate about what, if anything, might help McCarthy to show progress, but starting for the Vikings isn't working. If anything, it's making things worse.

He is regressing in every phase of the game, and each week, his performance gets worse, not better. What's baffling about this is that the entire organization had enough faith in McCarthy's potential to be their franchise quarterback that they allowed Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones to walk away from the team.

Now we're left with a starter who can't complete a pass, an undrafted rookie free agent as the backup (Max Brosmer), and a journeyman veteran whose name I can't remember as the emergency QB3. There is no Plan B this season. It was McCarthy or bust, and the whole thing is an epic bust.

What happens next is anybody's guess. Based on the level of play from the rest of Minnesota's opponents this season, compared to McCarthy's downward spiral, it's not only conceivable but more probably that they will finish 4-13. The only advantage in this is getting a top ten draft pick.

The problem with that is nobody has faith in the front office to do anything useful with that pick. Could they get Fernando Mendoza from Indiana and start over? Would they draft Jeremiyah Love, the running back from Notre Dame, and invest in their running game? How about a starting cornerback? Or a safety who can cover anyone at all? Or a defensive lineman who can pressure the QB?

Kwesi Adofo-Mensah's ineptitude in four consecutive drafts means that young talent is sparse on this roster, and last year's free agent successes were not replicated by this year's free agent failures.

Kevin O'Connell has squandered his goodwill and reputation in Minnesota and beyond by a frustrating inability to adapt his game plans to situations, and part of McCarthy's failure lies on his doorstep, as his confidence in McCarthy was misplaced, and his attempts to develop him are failing before our eyes.

I don't know what the Vikings ownership will choose to do after this season. But I do know that they are billionaire investors, and you don't make that kind of money by throwing more money into a bad investment. You cut your losses and move on. Whatever they choose to do, I cannot see how they choose to stay the course. This is the kind of season that demands change. The extent of the change will be determined by how much farther down the scale the Vikings' ship sinks. 

The Battle of the Mystery Boxes

This Sunday is the first meeting of the football season between the Minnesota Vikings and the Green Bay Packers. A classic rivalry for decades in which the Packers have often had the upper hand, this is the calendar date that gets circled for both the Purple Gang and the Cheeseheads.

The added drama this year is that no one can predict which of the two teams will show up to play, much less what the outcome will be. There are four basic either/or scenarios on either side of the ball, and I can't remember the math formula that gives you an estimate of the possible outcomes, but here's how I break it out for each team.

Packers' Offense: MVP or MIA?
Jordan Love is your classic feast or famine quarterback. Some weeks, he looks like the unholy love child of Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, completing most of his passes even when he chucks up a dying quail as he's getting it only to fall into the hands of an uncovered wide open tight end for a touchdown. Yeah, I've seen it happen. It's like fucking witchcraft or something.

On the other hand, Love has also been at the helm this season for losses to the Browns (?!), the Panthers, and the Eagles, in which he scored, respectively, 10, 13, and 7 points. Yes, all three of those teams have good defenses, but did you see the soul-crushing interception Love threw at the end of the Browns game? He looked like a high school freshman throwing his first pass on that play.

So, who's going to show up against the Vikings? Will he pick apart a weak Vikings secondary, or will he struggle to overcome the pressure from Brian Flores' blitz schemes? Flip a coin, because I have no idea.

Packers' Defense: Whither Micah Parsons?
The trade that brought Parsons, one of the best pass rushers in the league, from Dallas to Green Bay, looked at the time like the last piece in a championship puzzle for the Packers. Since that time, Parsons has been good, but has he been great? Has he been a game-wrecker? Not really. 

Parsons has had eight sacks on the year, which is seventh in the league, but three of those sacks came against a bad Arizona team in a game the Packers only won by four points, 27-23. Sack leader Miles Garrett of Cleveland has 15 sacks, but none of them came against Minnesota, who neutralized Garrett for only three tackles on the game.

So, will Parson's add to the Vikings' ongoing QB woes, or will the recently improved Vikings' O-line keep him in check? The Magic 8-Ball says, "Ask Again Later."

Vikings' Offense: Is it the fourth quarter yet?
I won't sugar-coat it—JJ McCarthy has played terrible for most of his starts. However, he has shown flashes of brilliance in engineering end-of-game drives that have either won the game or given the Vikings a late lead. What's the disconnect? I think it's because he's just thinking too much during the regular drives.

When he's in the two-minute drill, and they have to score, he's playing without thinking. He's just hitting the first open receiver he spots, and he's putting the ball on-target. He has the physical skills to succeed, and he's demonstrated that he can engineer scoring drives at crucial times. What we're waiting to see is if that ability exists outside of the end of the game.

So, can McCarthy put together 60 minutes of average QB play? His two best performances were in-division road games at Chicago and Detroit, so maybe Lambeau Field will inspire him to succeed. Or maybe he just sucks. Who knows?

Vikings' Defense: Evil Genius or Dr. Doofus?
Sometimes Flores' defensive schemes look amazing, and the Vikings' defense is flying around the field, pressuring and sacking the quarterback, stuffing the run, and breaking up passes. Other times they look like they forgot how to tackle the person with the ball.

I don't blame the defense for the Vikings' woes this season. I think, given injuries and the fact they have to play twice as many minutes as the opposition's defense because of Minnesota's offensive struggles, they've performed about as well as we can expect. But will they get to Love and force him into his typical pattern of mistakes, or will they stumble around like they ate too many brats the night before?

So, which defense shows up for the Purple? I rolled some dice, but I never came up with sevens or snake eyes. 

Just to make this game even more fun/frustrating, I have an ongoing wager with my friend and former bandmate Joe Bancroft, an insufferable Packers fan, that when our two teams square up, the loser has to wear the winner's head gear. That's him in a Vikings cap in the picture above. I have a bad feeling he's going to stop by on Sunday afternoon and force me to wear the Cheesehead.

Prediction: An average Jordan Love performance scores enough points to edge out an improved McCarthy game in which the Packers' defense does enough at home to win, while the Vikings get burned in the passing game.

Packers 24, Vikings 20

See you Sunday, Joe. 

NFC Playoff Picture—Week 12

Today, we're taking a look at the top ten teams currently in the NFC and forecasting the rest of the season's matchups to see how the playoff seeding might shake out and who I think has the best chance to make it to the championship.

Evergreen disclaimer: All predictions guaranteed to be wrong. Please, no wagering!

1. Philadelphia Eagles (8-2)
Remaining Schedule: @DAL (L); CHI (W); @LAC (W); LV (W); @WAS (W); @BUF (W); WAS (W); projected finish: 14-3

2. Los Angeles Rams (8-2)
Remaining Schedule: TB (W); @CAR (W); @ARI (W); DET (W); @SEA (L); @ATL (W); ARI (W); projected finish: 14-3

3. Chicago Bears (7-3)
Remaining Schedule: PIT (W); @PHI (L); @GB (L); CLE (W); GB (W); @SF (L); DET (L); projected finish: 10-7

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4)
Remaining Schedule: @LAR (L); ARI (W); NO (W); ATL (W); @CAR (L); @MIA (W); CAR (W); projected finish: 11-6

5. Seattle Seahawks (7-3)
Remaining Schedule: @TEN (W); MIN (W); @ATL (W); IND (L); LAR (W); @CAR (W); @SF (L); projected finish: 12-4

6. Green Bay Packers (6-3-1)
Remaining Schedule: MIN (W); @DET (L); CHI (W); @DEN (L); @CHI (L); BAL (L); @MIN (W); projected finish: 9-7-1

7. San Francisco 49ers (7-4)
Remaining Schedule: CAR (W); @CLE (W); TEN (W); @IND (W); CHI (W); SEA (W); projected finish: 13-4

8. Detroit Lions (6-4)
Remaining Schedule: NYG (W); GB (W); DAL (W); @LAR (L); PIT (W); @MIN (W); @CHI (W); projected finish: 12-5

9. Carolina Panthers (6-5)
Remaining Schedule: @SF (L); LAR (L); @NO (W); TB (W); SEA (L); @TB (L); projected finish: 8-9

10. Dallas Cowboys (4-5-1)
Remaining Schedule: PHI (W); KC (W); @DET (L); MIN (W); LAC (W); @WAS (W); @NYG (W); projected finish: 10-6-1

FINAL PROJECTED STANDINGS
1. Philadelphia (bye)
2. Los Angeles Rams
3. Detroit
4. Tampa Bay
5. San Francisco
6. Seattle
7. Dallas

WILD CARD ROUND
Los Angeles over Dallas
Detroit over Seattle
San Francisco over Tampa Bay

DIVISIONAL ROUND
Philadelphia over San Francisco
Los Angeles over Detroit

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Los Angeles over Philadelphia

Photo credit: NFC logo is a copyright of the National Football League

AFC Playoff Picture—Week 12

Who's making the playoffs in the AFC? Let's take a look at the current standings and try to project with the remaining schedule where they're going to end up. (Disclaimer: all predictions guaranteed to be wrong. For entertainment purposes only. Please, no wagering.)

1. Denver Broncos (9-2)
Remaining schedule: @WAS (W); @LV (W); GB (W); JAX (W); @KC (L); LAC (L); projected finish: 13-4

2. New England Patriots (9-2)
Remaining schedule: @CIN (W); NYG (W); BUF (L); @BAL (L); @NYJ (W); MIA (W); projected finish: 13-4

3. Indianapolis Colts (8-2)
Remaining schedule: @KC (L); HOU (W); @JAX (W); @SEA (L); SF (L); JAX (W); @HOU (W); projected finish: 12-5

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4)
Remaining schedule: @CHI (L); BUF (L); @BAL (L); MIA (W); @DET (L); @CLE (W); BAL (L); projected finish: 8-9

5. Buffalo Bills (7-3)
Remaining schedule: @HOU (W); @PIT (W); CIN (W); @NE (W); @CLE (W); PHI (L); NYJ (W); projected finish: 13-4

6. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
Remaining schedule: LV (W); PHI (L); @KC (L); @DAL (L); HOU (W); @DEN (W); projected finish: 10-7

7. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4)
Remaining schedule: @ARI (W); @TEN (W); IND (L); NYJ (W); @DEN (L); @IND (L); TEN (W); projected finish: 10-7

8. Houston Texans (5-5)
Remaining schedule: BUF (L); @IND (L); @KC (L); ARI (W); LV (W); @LAC (L); IND (L); projected finish: 7-10

9. Kansas City Chiefs (5-5)
Remaining schedule: IND (W); @DAL (L); HOU (W); LAC (W); @TEN (W); DEN (W); @LV (W); projected finish: 11-6

10. Baltimore Ravens (5-5)
Remaining schedule: NYJ (W); CIN (W); PIT (W); @CIN (W); NE (W); @GB (W); @PIT (W); projected finish: 12-5

FINAL PROJECTED STANDINGS
1. Denver (bye)
2. New England
3. Indianapolis
4. Baltimore
5. Buffalo
6. Kansas City
7. Los Angeles 

WILD CARD ROUND
New England over Los Angeles
Indianapolis over Kansas City
Buffalo over Baltimore

DIVISIONAL ROUND
Denver over Buffalo
New England over Indianapolis 

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Denver over New England

Photo credit: AFC logo is a copyright of the National Football League

From Disappointment to Hopelessness

The Vikings House of Horrors

The Minnesota Vikings are broken, and the only question that needs to be answered is whether the Wilf family ownership thinks their current football staff can fix it.

First off, the JJ McCarthy experience is not working. Whatever talent and potential may still remain, he is not progressing as a QB at this point in his young career. Problems with accuracy and turnovers remain, and after yesterday's game at home against the Bears, they've become more apparent and problematic.

More concerning is the performance of the Vikings receivers. Justin Jefferson is openly frustrated, and he, along with Jordan Addison, Adam Thielen, and TJ Hockenson are dropping passes right and left, passes that should be easily caught. What's going on here? Is it a symptom of their larger frustrations?

Head coach Kevin O'Connell has had a mostly healthy offensive line for a couple of games, and although they gave McCarthy time to throw yesterday, he still took too long to progress through his reads and get the ball off in time.

Although KOC showed a greater commitment to the run, he didn't stick with it enough to make a difference in the final score. McCarthy did engineer a go-ahead drive late in the fourth, but the inability of the Vikings special teams to pin Chicago back on the ensuing kickoff sealed their fate.

So what now?

They're not making the playoffs. Looking ahead at their schedule, I only see two more possible wins: at home against the Commanders and at the NY Giants, but they stink at home, and the Giants are frisky at times.

Here are the on-field questions we need to answer this season:

1. Can McCarthy show improvement in terms of accuracy and reducing interceptions?

2. Can the offensive line stay healthy and protect McCarthy?

3. Will KOC increase his commitment to the run game?

4. Will the defense hold up if the offense keeps sending them back out onto the field?

5. Will the Vikings receivers start making catches? Are they so frustrated with the poor play of their young QB that they're giving up?

Beyond the season, here are the three most important questions the Wilfs will have to decide for themselves:

1. Has McCarthy shown enough progress by the end of the year to warrant giving him a second season at QB? If not, is there a Plan B?

2. O'Connell has built a great culture in Minnesota, but is he the right coach to take the team to the next level?

3. This team is too old and lacks depth. They should have at least 10 picks in the next draft, but GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has a terrible track record in the draft. Can he and his draft team be trusted to pick the right players to build for the future?

Sitting here today, those answers are all, "I don't know. It doesn't seem like it," and that's why Vikings fans today are slipping from disappointment into hopelessness.

Photo credit: "US Bank Stadium interior - Minnesota Vikings orientation" by Darb02 is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0.

The Minneapolis Miracle

Did that just happen? Was it not a dream?

This is not what happens for the Minnesota Vikings; this is what happens to the Minnesota Vikings. Roger Staubach to Drew Pearson in 1975, the very first "Hail Mary." Losing their fourth Superbowl to John Madden's best Oakland Raiders team ever. 1998—wide left, take a knee, lose in OT. Brett Favre throwing a pick after repeated late hits (uncalled, of course) from the Saints in 2009. Blair Walsh wide left after outplaying a superior Seahawks team in a throwback outdoor winter game in Minnesota.

Yes, all of those things and so many more have happened over the years, and I've been a Minnesota Vikings fan since the winter of 1975, when my dad and grandpa taught me how to understand football. The Vikings were 10-0 at the time, and I watched Fran Tarkenton play quarterback for the first time. I was hooked for life, like I had just mainlined a bad drug.

Over the years, I've become accustomed, as have so many other Vikings fans, to the kind of Nordic stoic fatalism that comes with having your sports fan hearts broken over and over again. While I'm never going to root for the Cubs (I have Cardinals DNA; I'm genetically incapable), I did feel joy for their fan base when they finally won the World Series. I felt the same way for Cleveland when the Cavs won the NBA title. Every fan base deserves at least one championship in a generation. Just one is enough.

Unless you cheer for the Vikings, because until last night, all evidence pointed to one incontrovertible fact: God hates the Vikings. That's why, even up 17-0 at halftime, all I could think about was the missed 49-yard field goal at the end of the first half. Sure enough, by early in the fourth quarter, it was 17-14, then with three minutes left, 21-20. I did what my heart and mind do automatically in these situations: I prepared for the inevitable loss.

Even when the Vikings kicked a long field goal to take a 23-21 lead, there was 1:29 left to go. That was more than enough time for a QB like Drew Brees, a future first-ballot HOFer, to drive them down for the go-ahead field goal. They even faced a fourth-and-ten, but Brees converted easily. By the time the Vikings got the ball back, there were only 25 second left in the game and the season, and not only were they on their own 25-yard line, they started the drive with a false start penalty.

I began to think about how to process the loss. All credit to Drew Brees and Sean Payton, hope the Saints beat the Eagles and then crush the Patriots in the Superbowl. Vikings QB Case Keenum completes a pass to the Vikings 40; they call time out with 19 seconds to go. Did anyone really think we were going to go to the Superbowl with Case Keenum as our QB? Incomplete, second down. This was going to be the biggest playoff deficit—17 points—ever given up, the biggest deficit ever overcome by the Saints. Incomplete, third down, ten seconds left. Get ready for the loss, prepare for the letdown, it's just a game, it's not the end of the world, process the disappointment and let it go...

Did this just happen? Was it not a dream?

I can only describe my reaction as 15 minutes of primal scream therapy. My kids came down the hall to my room to see if I was being murdered. I shouted in joy and celebration until my throat was hoarse. My family called and friends started sending texts of congratulations. I watched replay after replay, sharing the same dumbfounded amazement as the players, coaches, press, and fans who witnessed what will certainly go down as one of the most amazing, improbable, miraculous finishes to any football game in the history of the NFL.

This isn't the end. This was a marvelous, wondrous, miraculous victory, no doubt. But it's just the first step. Unless the Vikings beat the Eagles on the road next week in the NFC Championship, then somehow manage to topple the Patriots (nice job, Jags, but you're not forking winning at Foxboro. Not. Gonna. Happen.), the catch becomes a nice footnote in the endless flow of playoff futility. Nothing short of a Superbowl win in their home stadium can truly end the misery and longing of every true fan of the Purple and Gold.

But this will forever be known as the Minneapolis Miracle. TE Kyle Rudolph said this morning on "Golic and Wingo" on ESPN Radio that the name of the play call was "Heaven." Rudolph said, "You just gotta give it up."

Maybe, just maybe...God has decided to stop hating the Vikings.

NFC Wild Card Contenders...It's Anyone's Game to Win

It's no surprise that in the much-stronger NFC, we can expect the Wild Card race to be much more competitive, and whoever emerges from the fray is much more likely to move on to the Divisional Round, and with the injury to Carson Wentz in Philly, possibly the NFC Championship in...Minnesota? New Orleans? Let's take a look at the scenarios and the probabilities...

Carolina Panthers (9-4, #5 seed)—at home against the Packers and the Bucs, then final week on the road in Atlanta, I predict they will go 2-1 with a meaningless last-week loss to Atlanta, followed by a win in LA over the Rams before the Vikings get their revenge on the Panthers in the divisional round.

Atlanta Falcons (8-5, #6 seed)—their last three games are at the Bucs and at the Saints, then home to the Panthers. If they split with the Bucs and the Saints (they will), that puts them at 9-6, while Carolina will be 11-4. They won't get seeded any higher than sixth, but they might need to win that last game to get into the playoffs. It may or may not be enough. Even if they do win, they're not beating the Saints on the road in the Wild Card round.

Seattle Seahawks (8-5, out of playoffs)—They're hosting the Rams this week and the Cardinals the last week of the season (two wins), so their penultimate game at Dallas will determine whether they can overtake Atlanta for the sixth seed. I hate to see Seattle in the playoffs again, but if I were a betting man, I'd take them over Atlanta at this point in the season. They could beat the Saints on the road, also.

All at 7-6:
Detroit Lions—Bears (win); at Bengals (win); Packers (loss) puts them at 9-7, but if they can beat the Packers at home and sweep the final three games, 10-6 could get them a trip to New Orleans. Don't count them out just yet.

Green Bay Packers—at Panthers (loss); Vikings (loss); at Lions (win). They could flip-flop Vikings/Lions, but they're not beating the Panthers, so that's still just 9-7 at best even with Aaron Rodgers returning from injury. They don't have the pieces around him to sweep three games.

Dallas Cowboys—at Raiders (win); Seahawks (win); at Eagles (win). Why? Ezekiel Elliott is coming back from suspension, that's why, and the Eagles won't have anything to play for. If they sweep, they finish 10-6 and have a chance to get in, but they'll need lots of help above them.

My prediction: Carolina gets the five-seed; Seattle steals the sixth.