Friday, December 15, 2017

NFC Wild Card Contenders...It's Anyone's Game to Win

It's no surprise that in the much-stronger NFC, we can expect the Wild Card race to be much more competitive, and whoever emerges from the fray is much more likely to move on to the Divisional Round, and with the injury to Carson Wentz in Philly, possibly the NFC Championship in...Minnesota? New Orleans? Let's take a look at the scenarios and the probabilities...

Carolina Panthers (9-4, #5 seed)—at home against the Packers and the Bucs, then final week on the road in Atlanta, I predict they will go 2-1 with a meaningless last-week loss to Atlanta, followed by a win in LA over the Rams before the Vikings get their revenge on the Panthers in the divisional round.

Atlanta Falcons (8-5, #6 seed)—their last three games are at the Bucs and at the Saints, then home to the Panthers. If they split with the Bucs and the Saints (they will), that puts them at 9-6, while Carolina will be 11-4. They won't get seeded any higher than sixth, but they might need to win that last game to get into the playoffs. It may or may not be enough. Even if they do win, they're not beating the Saints on the road in the Wild Card round.

Seattle Seahawks (8-5, out of playoffs)—They're hosting the Rams this week and the Cardinals the last week of the season (two wins), so their penultimate game at Dallas will determine whether they can overtake Atlanta for the sixth seed. I hate to see Seattle in the playoffs again, but if I were a betting man, I'd take them over Atlanta at this point in the season. They could beat the Saints on the road, also.

All at 7-6:
Detroit Lions—Bears (win); at Bengals (win); Packers (loss) puts them at 9-7, but if they can beat the Packers at home and sweep the final three games, 10-6 could get them a trip to New Orleans. Don't count them out just yet.

Green Bay Packers—at Panthers (loss); Vikings (loss); at Lions (win). They could flip-flop Vikings/Lions, but they're not beating the Panthers, so that's still just 9-7 at best even with Aaron Rodgers returning from injury. They don't have the pieces around him to sweep three games.

Dallas Cowboys—at Raiders (win); Seahawks (win); at Eagles (win). Why? Ezekiel Elliott is coming back from suspension, that's why, and the Eagles won't have anything to play for. If they sweep, they finish 10-6 and have a chance to get in, but they'll need lots of help above them.

My prediction: Carolina gets the five-seed; Seattle steals the sixth.

Saturday, December 09, 2017

AFC Wild Card Contenders...Cannon Fodder

The AFC is in the unusual position of being clearly the weaker of the two conferences this year. They really only have two upper echelon teams in the Steelers and the Patriots, with everyone else vying for scrimmage opponents for the two superior organizations. But rules determine that because of TV money and crap like that, instead of just putting Pittsburgh and New England into the AFC Championship without two weeks of pointless games, we have to come up with six teams. So let's see who's going to stink it up in the first week of the playoffs.

Not beating the Patriots...ever.
Jacksonville Jaguars (predicted 10-6 record)
In my conference leaders preview, I said that the Jags and the Titans were basically the same team. Looking ahead at their four remaining games, it looks like they should both finish 10-6. Since Tennessee owns the tie-breaker, it looks like Jacksonville will be the fifth seed, which should pit them against Kansas City. I like their chances against Andy Reid in the first round. Their defense might keep them in the next game against the Pats, but Blake Bortles is not winning a game at Foxboro.
Prediction: Loss at New England in Divisional Round

Let's get ready to rumbllllllllllllllle!
Baltimore Ravens (predicted 9-7 record)
The Ravens could very well finish 3-1, but they're likely to cough up a game to Cincy or Cleveland, so I'm going with 2-2 and the sixth seed. This puts them on the road against Tennessee, where their playoff experience takes the game and brings about the divisional matchup against Pittsburgh that everyone looks forward to every year. This is consistently the best and most vicious grudge match in the league, and it's definitely must-see TV.
Prediction: Loss at Pittsburgh in Divisional Round

Close but no Cigar:
Looks like a pick-six to me.
LA Chargers—Moving an hour north doesn't change the fact that no one chokes at the wrong time late in the season like Philip Rivers. They'll lose at least two of their last four games and finish out of the running at 8-8.

The agony of defeat...
Buffalo Bills—I have a soft spot for the Bills because their playoff and Superbowl misery is on par with my own beloved Minnesota Vikings, but despite a tough defense, they have no quarterback to speak of. They have two games against the Dolphins (split), a probably win against the woeful Colts, and a sure loss to New England. That's 8-8 and an extension of the longest current playoff drought in the league.

"I wanna look like a toddler!"
Oakland Raiders—The Silver-and-Black should be running away with the AFC West thanks to KC's epic collapse, but for some reason, the pieces are just not clicking in Oakland. Maybe it's karma for their goofy-haircut bastard of an owner moving the team to Las Vegas. And what the hell is the deal with multi-millionaires and billionaires with terrible haircuts? Hire a Hollywood hair stylist; bowls are for cooking, not haircuts. They're going to finish 1-3 with a 7-9 record overall.

Every other team in the AFC is below .500; none of the remaining 5-7 teams (Jets, Dolphins, Bengals) are going on a four-game winning streak, and even if they did, that would still just give any of them a 9-7 record and a predicted tie with Baltimore. Odds are about the same as Powerball, so I'm not putting my prognosticating reputation (suspect as it is) on the line for that.

Next time: NFC Wild Card Odds

Thursday, December 07, 2017

2017 NFL Playoff Predictions: NFC

Day Two of NFL Playoff Predictions guaranteed to go wrong takes us to the NFC, clearly the stronger of the two conferences overall this year, which makes it even more difficult to accurately predict. My conundrum is compounded by the fact that as of this writing, my beloved Minnesota Vikings sit atop the NFC standings. Anyone who is a Vikings fan knows that this is counter-intuitive information...the better things look for the Vikings, the farther the fall and the more painful the heartbreak will be.

Yeah. This could happen.
It's like this: you have a wonderful, joyous affair four-month affair with Kate Upton that you plan to culminate with a wedding in Vegas; you make it to the altar, where she joins you for the ceremony, only to change her mind and leave you just before she says her vows. Knowing this is going to happen neither deters you from pursuing her nor alleviates the pain of the inevitable loss.

Yeah, that's what it's like to be a Vikings fan.
Every.
Single.
Time.


Carson Wentz that-a-way...
NFC East Leader: Philadelphia Eagles
Pro: The NFL's best and most consistent all-around team, their schedule still looks like 13-3 even if they lose the LA to the {wretching, gagging noise} Rams this weekend. After that, they're at the Giants (black hole of awfulness) and then home against Oakland and Dallas. It looks like they have the inside track on home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Con: Did their loss at Seattle expose inherent weaknesses, or was it an outlier? Look at this weekend's game at the {projectile vomiting} Rams to see how they respond to a talented QB and vicious defense on the other side of the ball.
Prediction: NFC Champions

Alvin Kamara or Flavor Flav?
NFC South Leader: New Orleans Saints
Pro: Drew Brees playing QB like an '80s game of Tecmo Bowl, and the most frightening one-two punch of running backs in Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara that we've seen on any team in decades. They still have two games against Atlanta, which if they split, they have what looks like easy games against the Jets and Tampa Bay. Look for them to finish 11-4.
Con: Can they persevere in a close game against a tough defense? We'll probably have to wait until the playoffs to see about that. And it's going to happen again in Minnesota.
Prediction: Loss to Minnesota in Divisional Round.

Every Vikings fan needs therapy.
NFC North Leader: Minnesota Vikings
Pro: A defense without any discernible weaknesses, teams simply haven't been able to score on the Vikings this season. In the past three weeks, they held the Rams {bleaaaah} to a mere touchdown, and they went on the road to hold Atlanta to three field goals. You can't pass or run on them regardless of your weapons.
Con: When will midnight strike for Case Keenum and we see his ball gown turn to cleaning rags? Is is conceivable that Keenum, a career backup, can do what Kurt Warner did in St. Louis? Bitch, please...this is Minnesota. Keenum will not do what Fran Tarkenton, Randall Cunningham, and Brett Favre were unable to do. Midnight is coming, Viking nation. Try to enjoy the dance for as long as it lasts.
Prediction: Beats New Orleans in Divisional Round; loses to Philadelphia in NFC Championship

Look into the dead eyes of pure evil.
NFC West Leader: Los Angeles {RALLLPH!} Rams
Pro: Jared Goff becoming the QB the team hoped he would in trading away last year's draft to get him; Todd Gurley running wild up and down the field; a vicious, punishing defense that specializes in making QBs miserable and ineffective; no more Jeff "fitty-fitty" Fisher "coaching" on the sidelines.
Con: They are owned by P.Enos Kroenke, and I refuse to believe that the universe will not bitch-slap him with a karmic enema year after year after year until his black soul is reunited in Perdition with his Dark Master.
Prediction: Loss to Philadelphia in Divisional Round

Next up: AFC/NFC Wild Card Predictions

Wednesday, December 06, 2017

2017 NFL Playoff Predictions: AFC

It's the best time of the year for NFL fans; as Christmas approaches, so does the opportunity for disappointment, heartbreak, depression, and despair...all those things we look forward to in the holiday season. Today I'm going to look at the front-runners in the AFC; I'll tackle the NFC leaders tomorrow, and I'll take a look at the Wild Card odds next week after this weekend's games. Play along and keep score at home, and as always, all predictions are guaranteed to go wrong.

Ha-ha! I own the referees!
AFC East Leaders: New England Patriots
Pro: Their head coach and quarterback made a deal with the devil that apparently doesn't expire until sometime in the next decade. They also play in the most pathetically weak division in the league, so having six automatic wins means .500 everywhere else wins the division. Oh, and the referees are clearly on Robert Kraft's Christmas bonus list.
Con: The league's most hated team, the goal of the AFC playoffs is to keep them out of their, what is it now, ninth Superbowl appearance? Look for the kind of head hunting not seen since Gregg Williams coached the Saints defense.
Prediction: Loses AFC Championship game

I'm smarter than you!
AFC North Leaders: Pittsburgh Steelers
Pro: Mike Tomlin, the NFL's smartest coach; LeVeon Bell, the NFL's toughest runner; Antonio Brown, my fantasy team savior every week; Ben Roethisberger, the Jason Vorhees of quarterbacks.
Con: They'll have to play the AFC title game on the road in New England; their scoring has been inconsistent this year.
Prediction: AFC Champions


Paying off the refs explains a lot.
AFC South Leaders: Tennessee Titans 
and Jacksonville Jaguars (tied at 8-4)
Tennessee: How the #%@& is this team 8-4?
Prediction: Wild Card Playoff Loss

Jacksonville: How the #%@& is this team 8-4?
Prediction: Wild Card Playoff Loss






AFC West Leaders: Chiefs, Chargers, Raiders, all tied at 6-6
This is how many people think I'm going to win a playoff game.

Look, we all know that the Chefs are in freefall, but their next three games are all at home against Oakland, LA Chargers, and Miami, with their final game at Denver, who is a garbage fire this year. I think the Chefs are going to turn it around and go out on a four-game winning streak to take the division. The Chargers are legendary for pooping their pants when the playoffs are on the line late in the season, and I don't trust Oakland to do anything predictable from week to week other than play way below their talent and potential.
Prediction: KC takes division, loses in Wild Card round