Saturday, October 07, 2006

NFL Week Five Picks: Home Cookin'

Almost nothing but home teams on my pick list except for the two Missouri teams, both of whom are playing bad 1-3 teams on the road. I went with a bunch of road winners in week one, so maybe this set will do as well. Frankly, it's hard to pick against the home teams this week due to the matchups. On with the picks...

St. Louis at Green Bay
I went back and forth on this one. If the Rams offense reverts back to form and Favre has a big day against the Rams' secondary, the Pack could take this one. On the other hand, Favre is hurt, his O-line stinks, and their defense is really, really bad. I think either way you look at it, the odds are in St. Louis' favor. Hopefully last week's scoring binge blew the cobwebs out of the passing game. Note to Jim Haslett: Blitz early, blitz often.
Rams 29, Packers 17

Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Even with an expected loss at Carolina, the Saints didn't show as much of a letdown as most people expected, and if a couple of breaks go their way, they beat Carolina and sit at 4-0. As it stands, they should be able to beat a Tampa team with no proven QB and the rest of its parts in disarray.
Saints 24, Bucs 10

Tennessee at Indianapolis
The only thing of interest in this game is the over-under on Colts points.
Colts 42, Titans 6

Detroit at Minnesota
Another game I can't decide without the flip of a coin. The Vikings offense has been nonexistent so far, but their defense has been solid, so I think they'll run on the Lions' D, control the clock and grind out another low-scoring win. I like Brad Johnson, but he's got to lead this team into the end zone if they want to be relevant this year.
Vikings 17, Lions 13

Buffalo at Chicago
They should institute a mercy-rule clause for this one.
Bears 38, Bills 0

Washington at New York Giants
Brunell and Portis looked good last week beating Jacksonville, but I'm also beginning to wonder if Jax's first few games weren't an aberration caused by the fact that offenses usually start much slower in the early weeks of the season. I think Coughlin, Eli and Tiki all right the Giants' ship this week with a tough victory in a close game.
Giants 27, Redskins 24

Cleveland at Carolina
How come Carolina gets to play a schedule that looks like the first few weeks of the D-1 college football schedule? How about some freakin' competition already? Cleveland! Sheesh!
Panthers 31, Browns 13

Miami at New England
This game is simply cruel and unfair. Oh, well.
Patriots 35, Dolphins 3

Oakland at San Francisco
The Niners looked really bad on the road against the Chiefs, but the Chiefs were coming off a bye week and still pissed about the Cincy game. Frisco's played pretty good at home, and the Raiders are on the verge of total disintegration.
49ers 37, Raiders 14

Kansas City at Arizona
Matt Leinert will get his first start at the Pink Taco, but Herm Edwards should have the KC defense thirsty for rookie blood. As long as they can tackle Edge James, they should be able to bust through that terrible Arizona O-line and make Matt's day just miserable. Damon Huard looked more than competent as Trent Green's placeholder last week.
Chiefs 30, Cardinals 16

New York Jets at Jacksonville
The Jags have one more game--this one--to prove to me I wasn't right about them in the first place with my preseason preview. I don't believe they'll lose a third straight, though, any more than I believe the Jets can have two quality road games in a row. I'm not confident about this pick, but I'm less confident in the Jets' ability to win in the Jags' house.
Jaguars 23, Jets 19

Dallas at Philadelphia
This is such a grudge match, it feels like it should be on Pay-Per-View. I don't think the real story here is T.O. I think it's about how an aggressive Philly defense will be able to stop the Dallas run and pressure immobile Dallas QB Drew Bledsoe into taking costly sacks and making ill-advised passes that get picked off. This will be a low-scoring defensive struggle that will ultimately come down to turnovers, and I see Philly on the plus side.
Eagles 24, Cowboys 20

Pittsburgh at San Diego
Pittsburgh is coming off a bye week, which should be good for Big Ben at QB, but they're playing in San Diego, who should be doubly-motivated after a stupid, unnecessary loss last week against the Ravens. Look for another low-scoring defensive gem, but the Chargers just have more offensive weapons at this point--as long as Rivers doesn't throw untimely picks again.
Chargers 20, Steelers 13

Baltimore at Denver
I still don't think Baltimore is for real, but they get their chance to prove it at Mile High this Monday night. If Shanahan could figure out the N.E. defense, I think he can beat these guys, too.
Broncos 20, Ravens 13

Last week: 9-5
Season 42-18 (.700)

1 comment:

TUCK! said...

I think the Bills pick has more to do with last week than this week. Just sayin'.

My pick? Redbirds in four. You wanna talk mercy rule, I give you Carp vs. Woody. Yowza.