Colts, of course. I picked them way back in August to win the whole thing (over Seattle, by the way). I'm thinking the final score will be 41-45 Colts to 17-23 by the Bears, and here's why.
1) The Colts offense should be able to score consistently against the Bears defense because the Colts offense is more talented position-by-position than the defenders on the other side of the ball, with the exception of Urlacher. Expect a big game from Harrison, Wayne, Clark, Rhodes and Addai. Oh yeah, that Manning guy's pretty good, too.
2) The Colts defense will focus on stopping the run and forcing Rex Grossman to make the kind of bad decisions that have plagued him all season. I figure he's good for at least three turnovers, most of which should result in Colts points.
3) If Chicago gets a lead, Indy can come back in a hurry. Chicago lacks that ability, and I think Indy will jump out to a big lead in the first half.
4) Tony Dungy is the master; Lovie Smith is the student. I don't think there will be much that will take Dungy by surprise today. I also get the sense that karma has decided to reward Dungy at last. Smith may have technically made it to the Super Bowl first, but Dungy is the real African-American trailblazer in terms of big-name, big-time black coaches.
5) The Colts had the harder road to the game, getting past KC, Baltimore on the road (the league's best defense, for all you Bears lovers), and then Jason and Freddy from Boston. The Bears won two games at home mainly thanks to a sloppy field. Anyone think Chicago could have won on the road in Seattle and New Orleans?
6) AFC Dominance. If San Diego, New England or even Baltimore were in this game, Chicago wouldn't even be given a slight change; the spread would be double-digits. Indy doesn't get the same respect because of the Peyton-haters and the porous run defense (now fixed in three playoff games, btw).
So there you have it. I've only actively rooted for a favorite team in three previous games: the Vikings in 1977 and the Rams in 2000 and 2002. Let's hope I can get to .500 tonight.