There's No Crying in Baseball!

But there was certainly a sea of wailing and an ocean of gnashing of teeth last night after the Cardinals bullpen puked up a four-run lead in the top of the ninth inning, giving up six runs to the Mets and blowing not only a series sweep but a chance to move within one game of NL wild card leaders Atlanta with just six games left to play. It was, by any measure, a disgusting and disheartening loss.

But there's no crying in baseball. Tony LaRussa wasn't crying after the game. He said they were disappointed but not heartbroken. He sent a clear message to his team and the league: this was one loss, a tough loss, but tomorrow is another day. And he's right. Baseball players, more than any other sport, need to have little-to-no short-term memory. The Cubs—out of the postseason again, as always—are coming to St. Louis for the last home series of the year. Yesterday is gone. Today is all that matters.

While a sweep would have put the Cardinals in a better position, maybe a giant plate of humble pie will remind this team that they cannot score enough runs to be complacent. Our pitchers can't take any pitch for granted, and walks are simply unacceptable at this point in the season. Our defense can't just shrug off an error that negates a double-play and probably seals yesterday's victory. They just can't let up for even a moment. If they remember that much, at least, then Cardinal Nation still has reason to hope.

Let's take a look at the weekend series for St. Louis and Atlanta. The bottom line is this: if we win two of three and the Braves lose two of three, we're tied going into the final three games. Atlanta hosts Philly, and the Cardinals go to Houston. I like those odds. But what about this weekend?

St. Louis sends Chris Carpenter (10-9, 3.66 ERA) vs. Ryan Dempster (10-13, 4.63 ERA) tonight in the series opener. Saturday's matchup features Cubs starter Rodrigo Lopez (6-6, 4.71 ERA) against resurgent Cards starter Kyle Lohse (14-8, 3.47 ERA). Sunday's home closer will see the Cubs' Casey Coleman (3-8, 6.64 ERA) take the mound against St. Louis' newest starter, Edwin Jackson, (12-9, 3.85 ERA). Again, I like the odds on paper. A sweep keeps the pressure on Atlanta.

The Braves go to Washington to take on the Nationals, who are playing better baseball here at the end of the season. Here are the pitching matchups: Friday—ATL, Tim Hudson (15-10, 3.19 ERA) vs. WAS, Stephen Strasburg (0-0, 1.29 ERA); Saturday—ATL, Brandon Beachy (7-2, 3.58 ERA) vs. WAS, Chien-Ming Wang (3-3, 4.31); Sunday—ATL, Mike Minor (5-2. 4.27 ERA) vs. WAS, Ross Detwiler (previously a relief pitcher, 3.30 ERA). The pitching matchups seem to favor the Braves, although if Strasburg has his great stuff, the Nats have the edge in the first game, at least.

Looking back to the series in St. Louis, Dempster is 0-5 in his last five starts, and Carpenter is pitching the way we all expected Chris Carpenter to pitch. The Cardinals aren't going to back into the playoffs if they make it at all. This is a moment for the bold and the fearless. Let's see if the Cardinals have what it takes to rise above a tough loss and take the glory for themselves.

There's still much work to do

Now I'm not about to try to pass myself off as some sort of prophet, because before this weekend series between the Cardinals and the Phillies, I was only stating the most obvious point: the Cardinals had to, at the very least, win three of four from the Phillies to have a chance to catch Atlanta for the NL Wild Card. After Saturday night's eighth-inning bullpen meltdown and Roy Halladay looming on Monday's pitching matchups, it looked like a sister-kissing split was the best we could hope for.

Let's all be thankful for pleasant surprises. Enigmatic Cardinals starter Kyle Lohse reverted to the form that helped him land a fat contract and actually outpitched the Cy Young candidate Halladay, and the bullpen managed NOT to cough up a 4-1 lead in the ninth as the Redbirds left the City of Brotherly Battery Throwing with three wins out of four in their pocket.

In the meantime, the Atlanta Braves, doing their best to imitate Boston's epic wild card meltdown in the AL, lost another game to minor-league powerhouse Florida, thus reducing their lead in the NL wild card race over St. Louis to 2-1/2 games.

The Cardinals should be commended for not giving up when by all rational accounts, they were far out of the race for the postseason. Their resurgence came under the cloud of injuries, poor hitting (leading the league in double-plays), suspect defense, and a bullpen with the stability of a Molotov cocktail. To be sure, Atlanta's descent plays an important role, but the Cardinals could have phoned it in and no one would have noticed--Cardinal Nation tuned out after we fell more than 10 games behind Milwaukee.

But the Cardinals haven't actually accomplished anything yet. They still have to make up 2-1/2 games, and they only have nine games left in the season. Up first, six at home this week against the Mets (73-80) and the Cubs (68-86), then the final three at Houston (53-100). Allow me to attempt to be a prophet now, even if it is blindingly obvious: the Cardinals must win nine in a row to win the NL wild card and sneak into the playoffs.

Atlanta has two more games at Florida, then three at Washington, followed by the final three at home against Philly. Assuming that Philly is resting starters for those final three, it's not out of the question that the Braves could easily win 7 of 8, which would still clinch it for them. And let's not forget the Giants, who are only one game behind the Cardinals. They're on the road at LA, Arizona, then home against Colorado. Theirs seems like a tougher road, but they have solid pitching, so they could still end up on top.

The formula for the Cardinals is simple--they have to play better than they have to get over this last wall. The defense must be airtight. Batters must stop grounding into double-plays, especially with men in scoring position. And the bullpen must tighten up all the screws and slam that door shut, especially in the eighth and ninth innings.

Easier said than done? Of course! But we're home for six, then at Houston, who've already lost 100 games this season. We've come this far by playing barely above-average baseball. The official MLB playoffs may still be a couple of weeks away, but they've already started for the Cardinals, and from here on out, they need to play as if every game is the seventh in the series.

Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in...

The best line of the otherwise forgettable movie "Godfather 3" is the perfect setup for a weekend of meaningful baseball in a season that, just two weeks ago, appeared to be as dead as Fredo Corleone. Ten games out in the NL Central and more than six behind Atlanta for the Wild Card, the only thing left for St. Louis Cardinals fans to talk about was the odds of Albert Pujols re-signing with the Redbirds or leaving for big free-agent money.

But a sweep of the Braves last weekend, combined with a two out of three series win in Pittsburgh has made the Cards legitimate contenders for a late-season run at the wild card. But do they really have what it takes to make the post-season? This weekend's series in Philadelphia will tell the tale, and it shapes up about as well as the Cardinals could have hoped in terms of pitching.

In the upcoming four-game series, Garcia, Westbrook and Lohse will match up against Worley (11-2), Oswalt (7-9) and Hamels (14-8). These are all imposing pitchers, but none of them is Cliff Lee, who is practically unhittable right now. Soon-to-be Cy Young winner Roy Halliday goes for the Phils in the Monday series closer, but he'll be opposed by Cards ace Chris Carpenter. It's about the most favorable pitching matchup the Cardinals could have hoped for.

St. Louis's pitching staff will have to be in post-season form for each game, because teams just don't score off Philly's staff. Pujols and Berkman both need to step up big at the plate, especially with Matt Holliday on the bench for the next week or so. A series split isn't good enough, and losing 3 of 4 would probably mean the end of this surprising surge for the Redbirds. Nothing less than a series win is going to keep St. Louis in the post-season hunt.

And the real surprise is that they are here at all. Since the All-Star break, this team has been below average in most phases of the game. The question is whether this late run is an aberration or if it shows the true potential of the team. Atlanta hosts the Mets this weekend, while Milwaukee, who has seen their NL Central lead over St. Louis shrink to 5.5 games, is on the road at Cincinnati.

The Cardinals can't play it safe and hope that the Braves and Brewers will continue to fall back. If they don't already realize it, Don Tony needs to remind them: from here on out, every game is a playoff game. The next four are against the NL's best ballclub. Do the Cardinals really have what it takes? Surprisingly, I will be watching—once again—to find out.

NFL 2011 Preview: AFC

I have no team left to root for in the AFC now that Manning is likely out for the season. I used to be a KC fan, especially when St. Louis didn't have a team, so I still have some residual affinity for the Chiefs, although it's unlikely they will make it back to the playoffs this season. Here are my picks for divisions and playoffs:

AFC East
1. New York Jets (12-4)
2. New England Patriots (11-5)
3. Miami Dolphins (8-8)
4. Buffalo Bills (6-10)

Third time's the charm for Gang Green, while an aging offense and a defense lacking a serious pass relegates the Pats to wild card status. Miami and Buffalo are likely to remain mired in the doldrums of teams without a legit NFL QB.

AFC North
1. Baltimore (11-5)
2. Pittsburgh (10-6)
3. Cleveland (5-11)
4. Cincinnati (1-15)

Come to think of it, maybe Joe Flacco will be my new man-crush; he's going to have a Pro Bowl season and lead the Ravens deep into the playoffs. The Steelers will do well enough to avoid the Superbowl loser curse of missing the playoffs, but no more than that. Cleveland doesn't have a QB, and even though Cincy's likely to win the Andrew Luck Lottery Sweepstakes, they're too stupid to draft him.

AFC South
1. Houston (10-6)
2. Indianapolis (9-7)
3. Tennessee (7-9)
4. Jacksonville (4-12)

Houston wins this now-weak division by default. Kerry Collins will do okay in Indy, but that team has serious problems on both sides of the ball that Manning would have been able to disguise; Collins won't. Unfortunately, Jim Caldwell is unlikely to be fired (even though he's a terrible HC) just because they have the built-in "Peyton was hurt" excuse.

AFC West
1. San Diego (11-5)
2. Kansas City (9-7)
3. Oakland (8-8)
4. Denver (6-10)

I'm not drinking the San Diego Kool-Aid as long as Norv Turner's still the HC, but they have too much talent not to win this division. I hope I'm wrong about KC, but I don't know how much talent they have in key positions.

AFC Playoffs
1. New York Jets
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. San Diego Chargers
4. Houston Texans
5. New England Patriots
6. Pittsburgh Steelers

Wild Card
San Diego over Pittsburgh
New England over Houston

Divisional Playoffs
NY Jets over Houston
Baltimore over New England

AFC Championship
NY Jets over Baltimore

SuperBowl
Green Bay Packers over New York Jets

NFL 2011 Preview: NFC

I've got good news and bad news: The good news is that the lockout impasse was solved in time for the regular season to begin as scheduled. The bad news is that Peyton Manning is likely gone for the season with a second neck surgery. As I don't believe that Donovan McNabb is going to lead the Vikings to the playoffs and we're still a year or two away from Warren Beatty lookalike Christian Ponder from taking over, I have an opening available for this year's NFL man crush. Maybe Sam Bradford will step up and fill that role. In the meantime, here are my predictions for division finishes and playoffs this year.

NFC East
1. Dallas Cowboys (11-5)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
3. New York Giants (9-7)
4. Washington Redskins (6-10)

Look for Tony Romo to step up to the next level this season, as well as Rob Ryan's defense to be the difference in winning the division for Dallas. Despite all the hype, the Eagles will not be as good as expected; look for Michael Vick to have less success than last season.

NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints (11-5)
2. Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
4. Carolina Panthers (3-13)

Toughest division in the NFC will see New Orleans and Atlanta slug it out for the title, but both these teams should make the playoffs.

NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers (14-2)
2. Chicago Bears (9-7)
3. Detroit Lions (8-8)
4. Minnesota Vikings (7-9)

I hate to say it, but Green Bay is simply playing on another level. I think the Bears will still play better than the Lions, and while Detroit will be improved, but I'm not ready to put them in the playoffs just yet.

NFC West
1. St. Louis Rams (9-7)
2. Arizona Cardinals (8-8)
3. San Francisco 49ers (7-9)
4. Seattle Seahawks (2-14)

With a brutal schedule for the first six games, the Rams should gain enough toughness and experience to run the table in the second half of the schedule and return to the playoffs for the first time in ages. Look for Jim Harbaugh to get consideration for coach of the year in SF. Seattle is clearly playing the Andrew Luck sweepstakes by choosing to start Tarvaris Jackson at QB.

NFC Playoffs
1. Green Bay
2. New Orleans
3. Dallas
4. St. Louis
5. Atlanta
6. Philadelphia

Wild Card Round
Dallas over Philadelphia
Atlanta over St. Louis

Divisional Round
Green Bay over Atlanta
New Orleans over Dallas

NFC Championship
Green Bay over New Orleans

later today: AFC Preview

The Honor Was Long Overdue

Stan Musial, the greatest Cardinal of all time:


Musial received the Presidential Medal of Freedom on Feb. 22, 2011 from President Barack Obama. Obama's from Chicago, but he's a White Sox fan at least, so we can let that slide.


My friend, national baseball cartoonist "TUCK!" sums it up perfectly:

(copyright 2011—TUCK! published in "The Hardball Times" at http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/tuck-sez-happy-stan-musial-day/; cartoon used with permission of artist)

Why the Cardinals are Pujols Best Free-Agency Bet

The big risk for the Cardinals—and the biggest fear for Cardinal nation—is that they cannot reach a deal to re-sign Albert Pujols before his self-imposed deadline next week. Although they might decide to extend negotiations through spring training, I think that Albert wants to test the free-agent market. This is not automatically the end of the world for the Cardinals, however. As we saw with the Matt Holliday deal last year, free agency is not an automatic ticket out of the Gateway City.

FEAR #1: Pujols signs with a big-market team. Five years ago, this was a legitimate concern. But who out there has $30 million dollars to spend? The Yankees? They're already paying A-Rod, Jeter and Texiera a ton of money; can even their payroll afford that kind of money? The Red Sox have already shown a willingness to pass up huge long-term contracts on older players. I hear the Angels mentioned a lot, and that might be likely, but how happy would Albert be in the American League?

FEAR #2: Pujols signs with the Cubs. Please. Albert said he wants to be on a team that contends. He also said he wants to be the Cardinals successor to Stan Musial. The Man would never have played for the Cubs. Going to the Cubs, for any reason, would destroy Pujols' reputation in St. Louis. Plus, the chances of the Cubs seriously contending for a World Series title, even with Pujols, are just laughable.

FEAR #3: Small-market club throws big money to change their fortunes. Kansas City has been mentioned along with a few other teams. But the reality of these situations is that in order to sign Pujols, they would have to sacrifice pitching salary, which rules out competing for a title. Look at last season—the Giants and the Rangers made it to the Fall Classic on great pitching, not on the back of a single big-time slugger. Even McGwire and Bonds in their PED primes didn't carry a substandard team to a championship.

While it is conceivable that one of these scenarios could come to pass, what's more likely is that Albert will still find the best deal for the rest of his career in St. Louis. But why should Cards management handcuff themselves to one of the situations described above? Why should they limit or even eliminate their ability to keep a competitive pitching staff and sign other young talent because all their money is tied up with an aging and possibly injured superstar?

So what's the solution? If Pujols won't sign for any less than $300 million over 10 years, the Cardinals will take their chances as a free-agent bidder. What should they offer now, then? Well, he should make more than Ryan Howard, so let's say $29 million a year. What about time? Sign him for eight years until he's 40, then give him the option for year nine, then make it a club option for year 10. Load up the last 2-4 years with performance incentives that could raise the actual value of the contract to $300 million. Is this going to happen? Nobody really knows but Albert.

Five Reasons Why the Cardinals Won't Sign Albert Pujols Before Spring Training

These are in no particular order, and as always, I'm just a fan like the rest of you. I'm not a paid sports journalist with inside information. I have been following the Cardinals since I was old enough to watch baseball, which was at the height of Lou Brock's career. Do I think Pujols will stay with the Cardinals? Yeah, I do, but I think if that happens, they'll have to sign him as a free agent, and here are the five reasons why I think that will happen.

1. Pujols wants a ten-year contract. That's just stupid. He'll be almost 42 at the end of that deal, and he's got a Dominican birth certificate, so he could really be 56. Name me one other hitter ever who hit .300/30 HR/100 RBI after age 38. By the way, in 1962 at age 41, his next-to-last year, Stan Musial hit .330 with 82 RBI and 19 homers. In Ted Williams' last year, 1960, at age 42, he hit .316 with 29 homers and 72 RBI. Great stats? Sure. $30 million worth? Not so sure.

2. The market value for lesser players is absurd. Stupid losers like the Cubs and the Red Sox (I said it) overpaid like crazy for mediocre talent, and Pujols agent wants Cardinals brass to join the stupid club. I think Cardinals brass is waiting for this year to prove how truly idiotic those contracts were, thus driving the market price for a Pujols free-agency downward after this season.

3. Bill DeWitt is a really rich white guy. Guess what? Rich white guys don't become rich by spending money foolishly. Okay, guys named "Bush" can, but Bill DeWitt didn't. $300 million over 10 years for a player already in his 30s smells like a bad investment. Let's be honest, most of metro St. Louis already owns a Pujols t-shirt; they're not going to make up a third of a billion dollars in merchandizing and ticket sales.

4. Pujols is a catastrophic injury waiting to happen. The guy is, to steal a phrase, "one tough Dominican," but let's not let emotion trump logic—he's had both knee problems and elbow problems—serious elbow problems—for 3-4 years now. Blown out knee? Out for a year, lesser player the next year (see "Brady, Tom"). Torn elbow ligament. Tommy John surgery. Out for a year-and-a-half. At $30 million a year, anything less than 130 games minimum is money lost.

5. Hope you like minor-league pitching. Because that's all you're going to see on the mound at Busch Stadium if this deal goes through. Chris Carpenter has maybe 2-3 good years left in him. Adam Wainwright is almost certainly a $25 million a year deal to make once his contract is up. Jake Westbrook and Kyle Lohse will both be gone in 2-4 years. Jaime Garcia, assuming he lives up to his first-year promise, will command at least $8-10 million a year when he's arbitration eligible. How can you re-sign or replace any of these guys when more than 40 percent of your payroll is going to Pujols and Holliday? Answer: you can't.

So there you have it. I think that GM John Mozeliak has a strict bottom line number of years and salary directly from DeWitt that he won't budge on. Pujols and his agent Dan Lozano have evidently decided that they can get $300 million for ten years from some sucker chump franchise like the Yankees or the Angels. Others have speculated that desperate clubs like the Cubs or even the Royals (Jeff Gordon, please...) might buck up for Albert. Tomorrow I'll write about why either of those scenarios are unlikely, which leads to the conclusion that the Cardinals are in a better position to negotiate later rather than sooner.

Superbowl XLV post-mortem

I thought that the biggest risk for the Steelers was Rashard Mendenhall fumbling at a key point in the game; I even said so last Saturday on my radio show. As it turns out, his fumble in the second half led to the Packers TD that put the game out of reach. You can't turn the ball over three times and win a championship. Pittsburgh turned it over three times, and Green Bay scored three TDs off those turnovers. That was the difference.

The game itself was okay, but Pittsburgh played sloppy, especially in the first half, Green Bay dropped way too many passes, and the field was utter crapola in terms of traction. Did they spray it down with Pam® before the game?

I wonder how stupid all those people standing outside Jerry's UFO freezing to death and watching the game on big screens felt about spending $200 each for THAT experience...probably still better than the 400 people who paid for seats inside the stadium who were told, "Uh, sorry, we forgot to install your seats." The late, great Molly Ivins called her home state of Texas "the national laboratory for bad government." Evidently that reputation has seeped into the private sector as well.

I liked most of the commercials, but none of them were instant classics. The VW/Darth Vader ad was a favorite for most (myself included); John Williams' "Imperial March" is simply the most awesome piece of music to come out of Hollywood, ever. I also liked the NFL Network ad that showed all the casts of the classic sitcoms of the '70s, '80s and '90s. A couple of others that didn't attract as much attention but that I liked a lot was the Kia Optima "Epic Ride" ad, where the car was zapped from place to place through time and space, and the CarMax "I feel like a kid in a candy store" ad. The writer in me loved all those creative similes!

I didn't hate halftime, and I'm not a Black Eyed Peas fan, but it was at least interesting, even though the sound and the light tech was ridiculously amateurish. If Prince could play in a monsoon three years ago in Miami, you'd think that they could figure out how to turn on a microphone and some stage lights inside a dome.

Congrats to my friend Joe Bancroft, a Wisconsin native and die-hard Packers fan, who is basking in the afterglow of victory. Evidently he's forcing someone else (a Bears fan) to wear the "Cheesehead of Shame" as part of his celebration. As a Vikings fan, all I get is half-hearted pity, much like Cubs fans receive around the middle of August.

Who's likely to be there next year? I don't get paid for this, so here goes:
NFC: Dallas, Green Bay, Atlanta, New Orleans, Tampa and Philly.
AFC: Colts, Jets, Ravens, Patriots and Chiefs.
Rams? Won't beat out the Niners for the division next year. Vikings? Rookie QB. Maybe I don't care if they sign a new CBA or not. Nah, I still care. I love this game!

Insight Bowl: Mizzou vs. Iowa—live game blog

Welcome to The Sandlot—I'm in my basement, toasty warm in front of the fireplace and hoping that Missouri plays better this year than they did last year against Navy. If Blaine Gabbert is serious about attracting serious NFL draft attention, he better have a big game. Let's get ready for the kickoff!

8:56 p.m. Commentator Sean McDonough just called Missouri "the best team in the country that's NOT playing in a BCS bowl." Can we just all agree that the BCS system is utter crapola?

9:03 p.m. Mizzou's secondary just gives up a huge pass completion on 3rd and 5. Just pathetic. Looks like we'll be playing from behind right from the get-go.

9:06 p.m. Touchdown Iowa. Nice to see our defense showed up to play.

9:19 p.m. 3rd and 19 and Gabbert throws a frozen rope for a first down. That was money.

9:21 p.m. It's disappointing to take the field goal, but it's still too early to just give away points. Now let's see if we can play some defense. Iowa 7, Mizzou 3.

9:39 p.m. No defense whatsoever. This is looking more and more like an Iowa blowout. Mizzou looks like crap tonight. The offense is slow and boring, and the defense can't tackle or cover. They better turn this around and score a TD the next possession, or it's gonna be a long night.

9:53 p.m. It's completely unbelievable how poorly the MU defense is playing. It's like they've never even been on the field before. If they score a TD here, I don't see how our ineffective offense can make any sort of comeback.

10:07 p.m. Touchdown Mizzou! Only down by seven now. Need some defense at the end of the half, though.

10:21 p.m. Good grief, catch the ball! Gabbert's gonna get stuck with the INT on the stat sheet, but that is the receiver's fault. That should have been a tie game. What a crappy half. Pinkel ought to tear them to pieces at the half.

11:05 p.m. Great drive by Gabbert and the MU offense. Down by 3. Will the defense step up? I doubt it, but maybe we can just outscore them the rest of the way.

11:11 p.m. Interception by Missouri defense—the line had some pressure on Iowa QB Stanzi before he threw the ball. This may be the break we needed. Time to score a TD!

11:20 p.m. Touchdown Tigers! Our first lead of the evening. Perhaps the tide has turned. Let's see if our defense can step up and play up to the same level that our offense has this half.

11:42 p.m. Another pick by Mizzou's defense. They stepped up when the offense crapped the bed on the previous series. Time for a long, clock-killing drive. Play was upheld by official review. Mizzou ball...let's go offense!

11:49 p.m. Pick six by Gabbert; just an awful decision. We're down by three now and will have to score late to win the game. Just a crushing turn of events.

12:03 a.m. Game over. We won't get another chance. Won't get the ball back. We deserved to lose this game for crappy play all over. Pinkel sucks in bowl games, which is why we don't get invited to the big ones. Have fun in the NFL, Gabbert—you never did anything for us.

12:05 a.m. Why is Pinkel not using his time outs?

12:09 a.m. Congrats to Iowa—they deserved to win the game. Mizzou really played a poor game all around tonight. Why Pinkel can't prepare them for bowl games is a mystery.

It takes four quarters, guys

Well, the Rams let another win get away, and this was the most inexcusable loss so far. For a team that has shown signs of improvement from the recent dismal past, today was a significant step backward. The Rams, after jumping out to a 17-6 halftime lead, gained less than 100 yards and didn't even get close enough to even try a field goal that would have won the game. Instead, they let their defense try to hold the lead for two full quarters, which they couldn't do. In addition, they dropped at least three sure-fire interceptions and missed recovering a Josh Freeman fumble.

I don't blame the defense; they played as hard as they could, considering they were on the field for 20 minutes in the second half. Blame a boring offensive scheme that doesn't have a plan B if Steven Jackson can't gain 10 yards in three downs. Sam Bradford was wasted today with dink and dunk three-yards passes. The kid has a great arm; let him throw the ball downfield, especially when teams are loading up the line to stop Jackson.

The real shame of this game is that the Rams were the better team and should have won the game going away. The puzzling thing is figuring out why the Rams coaching staff couldn't figure out how to make it back to the Tampa 30 yard line just one more time today. I guess it's a sign of progress that the Rams have raised expectations, but now it's time for them to start meeting them.

NFL Week Seven

It's time for our second edition of "Can You Pick Better Than a Kindergartener?" where I match NFL picks against my five-year-old daughter, Chloe. She is up one on me, having picked the Rams to upset San Diego last week. I think I'm gonna take her this week, though; she picked Buffalo to beat the Ravens. If she's right, I'm not even going to pick any more; I'll just play her picks every week.

Cincinnati at Atlanta
Sandman: Falcons; Chloe: Bengals

Washington at Chicago
Sandman: 'Skins; Chloe: Bears

Philadelphia at Tennessee
Sandman: Titans; Chloe: Eagles

Jacksonville at Kansas City
Sandman: Chiefs; Chloe: Jaguars

Pittsburgh at Miami
Sandman: Steelers; Chloe: Dolphins

Cleveland at New Orleans
Sandman: Saints; Chloe: Browns She may be the only one in America who got this right!

St. Louis at Tampa Bay
Sandman: Bucs; Chloe: Rams

San Francisco at Carolina
Sandman: Panthers; Chloe: Panthers

Buffalo at Baltimore
Sandman: Ravens; Chloe: Bills

Arizona at Seattle
Sandman: Cardinals; Chloe: Cardinals

New England at San Diego
Sandman: Chargers; Chloe: Chargers

Oakland at Denver
Sandman: Broncos; Chloe: Broncos

Minnesota at Green Bay
Sandman: Packers; Chloe: Vikings

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Sandman: Cowboys; Chloe: Giants

This week:
Sandman: 9-5; Chloe: 3-11

Last week:
Sandman: 8-6; Chloe: 9-5

Totals:
Sandman: 17-11; Chloe: 12-16

NFL Week Six: Can You Pick Better Than a Kindergartener?

Frustrated at my lack of picking success this season, I've challenged by five-year-old daughter Chloe, a kindergarten student, to pick teams this week to see if a complete lack of awareness of football altogether is actually an advantage in picking NFL winners.

Seattle at Chicago
Sandman: Bears; Chloe: Bears

Baltimore at New England
Sandman: Ravens; Chloe: Ravens

Detroit at NY Giants
Sandman: Giants; Chloe: Giants

Atlanta at Philadelphia
Sandman: Falcons; Chloe: Eagles

Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Sandman: Steelers; Chloe: Browns (because brown is my favorite color)

Miami at Green Bay
Sandman: Dolphins; Chloe: Dolphins (what the heck is a Packer, anyway?)

San Diego at St. Louis
Sandman: Chargers; Chloe: Rams

New Orleans at Tampa Bay
Sandman: Saints; Chloe: Bucs

Kansas City at Houston
Sandman: Chiefs; Chloe: Texans

Oakland at San Francisco
Sandman: Raiders; Chloe: 49ers

NY Jets at Denver
Sandman: Jets; Chloe: Jets

Dallas at Minnesota
Sandman: Vikings; Chloe: Vikings

Indianapolis at Washington
Sandman: Colts; Chloe: Colts (I don't like red skin; it's itchy!)

Tennessee at Jacksonville
Sandman: Titans; Chloe: Jaguars

(Sandman: 7-6; Chloe: 9-4)

NFL Week Five picks

Jacksonville over Buffalo*
Tampa Bay over Cincinnati*
Atlanta over Cleveland*
St. Louis over Detroit*
Indianapolis* over Kansas City
Green Bay over Washington*
Carolina* over Chicago
Baltimore* over Denver
Houston* over NY Giants
New Orleans over Arizona*
San Diego over Oakland*
Dallas* over Tennessee
San Francisco* over Philadelphia
NY Jets* over Minnesota

(* = home team)

Pray for Gwynn, then ban spit tobacco.

First, this:
Tony Gwynn Diagnosed with Cancer

The time has come for major league baseball to once and for all ban all forms of spit tobacco, from snuff pouches to long-cut chew, from the game. Spit tobacco causes mouth cancer and kills athletes. It has no place in our national pastime. The evidence is clear, and action is demanded. Don't wait for Congress to pass legislation. The league and the players union should step up together and make this happen. Ban spit tobacco now.

NFL Week Two: Let's not get too excited...

There's always a tendency to overreact to both good and bad performances. Friends assume that because the Vikings, Colts and Rams all lost last week that I'm already giving up on the season. Please. Sixteen weeks is a long time, and there are about 1,000 different things that can happen. November and December is much more important than September and October. Most offenses are still not in sync in the first three or four weeks, and injuries are always a factor. So let's take the season one week at a time, and that leads us to Week Two...on with the picks!

Arizona at Atlanta
Atlanta couldn't do much against the Pittsburgh defense, and Arizona's coaching staff comes from Arizona. Neither one of these teams really excites me, but 'Zona played a good road game last week at St. Louis, so I'm sticking with the Gridbirds this week.
Cardinals 24, Falcons 13 WRONG!

Baltimore at Cincinnati
Baltimore's defense is getting older, but they're still nasty-tough. Cincy's offense is getting older and just nasty.
Ravens 17, Bengals 7 WRONG!

Kansas City at Cleveland
Every season, there's one team that moves from the outhouse to the penthouse. Could KC be that team? To be great, you need to crush inferior opponents and win games like these, especially on the road. Even if they're not this season's movers, after Cleveland's performance last week, there's no way I'm picking them.
Chiefs 21, Browns 10 GOT IT!

Chicago at Dallas
Two teams that are vastly overrated, but I can't see Jay Cutler beating Dallas' defense in the Lone Star State.
Cowboys 20, Bears 13 WRONG!

Philadelphia at Detroit
Michael Vick almost came back last week to be Green Bay; Detroit's not nearly as good as Green Bay. Advantage: Philly.
Eagles 27, Lions 17 GOT IT!

Buffalo at Green Bay
There should be a mercy rule on this one. What's the record for most TD passes in one game? (checking...) Seven, done five times, most recently by Joe Kapp of the Vikings in 1969. I'm taking Rodgers for eight, then.
Packers 56, Bills 0 GOT IT!

Pittsburgh at Tennessee
Chris Johnson is just superhuman. And hey, why not award the now-vacated Heisman Trophy to runner-up Vince Young? It's a popularity contest anyway, so let's treat it accordingly.
Titans 24, Steelers 10 WRONG!

Miami at Minnesota
Someone want to explain to me why, other than Brett Favre backlash, so many people like Miami in the Metrodome this Sunday? I mean, Bill Simmons is a freakin' idiot, so his pick didn't surprise me, but this is a no-brainer. The 'Fins only scored 15 against Buffalo, and they're easily the worst team in the league. Let me set you all straight...
Vikings 38, Dolphins 16 WRONG!

Tampa Bay at Carolina
If this were the only game on TV this Sunday, I'd just have to watch golf...or NASCAR...or three hours of cooking gadget informercials. Ugh. I have to pick one? Only because I have to...
Panthers 13, Bucs 9 WRONG!

Seattle at Denver
Last week confirmed what I suspected—Pete Carroll's been waiting a LONG time to have another chance in the NFL, and he's not going to waste it. Plus, Kyle Orton still stinks and Josh McDaniel is overrated, as is Denver in general. However, Denver's still a big home field advantage, and I need to see Seattle win big more than once before I'll believe they're real.
Broncos 27, Seahawks 23 GOT IT!

St. Louis at Oakland
The Rams really should have beaten Arizona last week; except for that dropped fumble return, that's a Rams win. Plus, Oakland is just terrible. I'm still drinking the Bradford Kool-Aid.
Rams 20, Raiders 17 WRONG!

New England at New York Jets
You know someone who talks a lot but never backs it up? Especially when it counts? And then that other guy, the one who almost never says anything because he never needs to because he's too busy kicking so much ass? Well, watch this game and you will.
Patriots 34, Jets 9 WRONG!

Jacksonville at San Diego
This is a classic week one overreaction game. Jax isn't as good as they looked against Denver, and SD's not as bad as they looked in KC. This week you have the Bolts at home and Jax suffering from jet lag.
Chargers 23, Jags 17 GOT IT!

Houston at Washington
Big potential for an giant emotional letdown for Houston this week, but Washington didn't look very good at all last week, and this whole Albert Haynesworth thing is going to wreck their clubhouse soon. Tip for 'Skins defense: tackle the guy with "Foster" on his jersey, if you can.
Texans 30, Skins 10 GOT IT!

New York Giants at Indianapolis
Let's make it simple: Who wins, older brother or younger brother. That's what I thought.
Peyton 33, Eli 21 GOT IT!

New Orleans at San Francisco
You know what? This week, I WILL wear the "Who Dat?!" cape. Remember, I hate the 49ers!
Saints 31, Niners 14 GOT IT!

This week: 8-8
Last week: 11-5
This season: 19-13 (.594)

NFL? I'm just not feelin' it.../TUESDAY APOLOGY

I mean, how would you feel in my place? My three favorite teams are Minnesota, Indianapolis and St. Louis. 1-15, lost the NFC Championship they should have won, lost the Superbowl they should have won. On top of that, we have the Sword-of-Damocles-like prospect of a work stoppage due to labor strife next season, a pre-season expert consensus of Green Bay vs. New York Jets in the Superbowl (and I won't even watch the commercials for THAT one), and a preseason prediction pileup so baffling that I can't even venture a guess on who will even make the playoffs, much less conference championships or the Superbowl. I suppose after this week I'll pick eight teams from each conference who I think have a chance at the playoffs. Until then, I will continue the weekly Sandlot tradition of game-by-game picks. I'm not excited about the football season, but at least it means that baseball is almost over. As always, these are my official picks entered in the "Pigskin Pick'em" contest at espn.com.

Minnesota at New Orleans
Already picked the Saints to win last night, which they did. Go ahead and kick me when I'm down. I can't believe I have to listen this craptastic Katrina redemption championship story for the next five months.
Saints 14, Vikings 9 (final)

Miami at Buffalo
Buffalo still has a team? Really? Huh...
Dolphins 31, Bills 6 [MIA 15 BUF 10]
I feel sorry for anyone who actually had to watch this game.

Detroit at Chicago
I'm so old, I remember when this was a game to look forward to.
Bears 13, Lions 9 [CHI 19 DET 14]
Don't care what the stupid rules say; Detroit got totally hosed on this one. Oh yeah, and Jay Cutler still sucks.

Oakland at Tennessee
If I owned a football team, I'd pay Jeff Fisher whatever he wanted to be my head coach.
Titans 24, Raiders 14 [TEN 38 OAK 13]
This was just too easy...

Cincinnati at New England
Brady's had a year to rehab his knee, so he should be good to go, which is bad news for everyone else in the league.
Patriots 31, Bengals 27 [NE 38 CIN 24]
They're BAAAAA-AAAAAACK!!!

Carolina at NY Giants
I hate Carolina. I don't know why, but I just hate everything about this franchise.
Giants 23, Panthers 13 [NYG 31 CAR 18]
Well, at least one of the Mannings won; that's something I guess...

Atlanta at Pittsburgh
Steelers fans, are you really excited about Dennis Dixon? Let me repeat that: Dennis Dixon? I didn't think so.
Falcons 24, Steelers 17 [PIT 15 ATL 9]
Will someone please remind me not to go against the Steelers at home against the NFC again?

Cleveland at Tampa Bay
Yeah, I know it's Jake Delhomigod he just threw another pick, but Tampa is just cover-your-eyes awful, and did they add anyone at all in the offseason?
Browns 13, Bucs 10 [TB 17 CLE 14]
Oh wait, you meant CLEVELAND, didn't you? Ugh...

Denver at Jacksonville
Flip a coin with either of these teams, but I think this whole Tebow thing is going to make good things happen for Denver, even if it's just his enthusiasm rubbing off on the rest of the team. I also have a hard time seeing Jax shake off the malaise of an utterly disinterested fan base.
Broncos 17, Jags 13 [JAX 24 DEN 17]
Why, oh why do I ever believe in Denver?

Indy at Houston
Someday Houston has to be able to hold a three-touchdown lead in the fourth quarter against the Colts, right? Well, I'm counting this as the official Superbowl hangover letdown game...unless all it did was piss off Peyton so much he's determined to take them back again...see why I can't get a handle on this season?
Texans 33, Colts 31 [HOU 34 IND 24]
Sometimes I just hate it when I'm right.

San Francisco at Seattle
Just because I freaking HATE San Fran; always have, always will. I had a hard time cheering for Joe Montana when he came over to KC just because I spent so many years hating him in SF. Did I mention that I HATE SAN FRANCISCO?!?!?!?
Seahawks 49, 49ers 0 [SEA 31 KC 6]
Nelson Muntz: "HAA-HA!!!"

Green Bay at Philadelphia
Aaron Rogers is Jesus Christ and the Packers will win the Superbowl. Happy? Can you just leave me alone now?!?!?!?!?!!!
Packers 38, Eagles 24 [GB 27 PHI 20]
Now we know why Philly didn't trade away Mike Vick.

Arizona at St. Louis
I'm drinking the Sam Bradford Kool-Aid. I'm not just sipping it. I'm not just drinking a big glass of it. I'm sticking my head right down into the cooler and swallowing gigantic gulps of its cold, fruity goodness. Sam Bradford, Boomer Sooner, the savior of St. Louis football. Hey, after 1-15 and watching my big boys fall, I want the Kool-Aid. I need the Kool-Aid. Let me drink my Kool-Aid in peace, my friends.
Rams 28, Cardinals 24 [ARZ 17 STL 13]
For God's sake, Rams, trade for or sign a big-time receiver, right now!

Dallas at Washington
Why the 'Skins? Because of Donovan McNabb and Mike Shanahan. And because I won't ever jump on the Dallas bandwagon. I wouldn't do it in 1978, and I'm sure not going to do it now.
'Skins 20, Cowboys 17 [WSH 13 DAL 7]
What a boring game—virtually unwatchable

Baltimore at NY Jets
I missed the game in my predictions, but I picked it right in the pool.
Ravens 10, Jets 9

San Diego at Kansas City
Are we still sure that Phillip Rivers is God and Norv Turner really can take a team far into the playoffs? Because I keep hearing the tune but I never get to see the dance. Meh, it's still the Chefs, tho, so I guess this seems like a safe pick.
Chargers 24, Chefs 10 [KC 21 SD 14]
Way to go, KC. I hate the Chargers, too.

This season: 11-5 (.688)
Last season: On suicide watch through the end of March

...and fight for old Mizzou!

This is as close as it gets to a college football preview for me, because without a playoff system, there's no legitimate championship. The BCS system is like major league baseball saying that the only teams who get to play in the world series are the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies or Dodgers; no one else even gets a chance, regardless of their record. Sorry, Alabama, but you didn't win a national championship—you just won a bowl game, like everyone else.

Having said that, Mizzou is completely off the national radar this year, which I think is just excellent. After several years of hype, one glorious week at number one, and a lifetime of utter futility against Oklahoma, no one is paying attention to Missouri's football program. As far as the national press is concerned, the only team in the Big 12 North is Nebraska, and they're moving to the Big 10 (?!) next year. (Hate to see you go, don't let the door hit you in the butt on the way out, hope to never see you again, blank you very much.)

The problem with Missouri has always been expectations, and although this hold true for basketball as well as football, at least the basketball team has had some legitimately great teams. The same can't be said for football, even during Chase Daniel's glorious career. The team that beat Kansas and spent a week at #1 in the polls didn't play Oklahoma during the regular season, and they got stomped by the Sooners the very next week in the Big 12 (?!) championship.

The hard, cold reality that Mizzou fans have to accept is that we are a mid-major program, which explains our recent success with mid-major coach Gary Pinkel. Missouri is never, ever, ever going to be the kind of football program that can compete with Oklahoma or Texas, never mind Florida, Alabama, LSU, USC or Ohio State. It's simply a matter of reality. Some things just are the way they are. Winona Ryder's cute, but she's not ever going to have Julia Roberts' career. Life's not fair, and neither is football.

Once we accept that as reality, we can enjoy what should be a very nice season. I'm excited to see what Blane Gabbert can do with a year's experience under his chinstrap and two healthy ankles. After tomorrow's game in St. Louis against Illinois, we have three home games against mid-majors followed by the Big 12 (?!) opener against Pac-10 defectors Colorado. I think that game should be an opportunity to take out some serious conference realignment frustrations on the Buffaloes, who should still be awful this season. So we're looking realistically at a 5-0 start, 4-1 at the worst.

The next four weeks are just brutal. At Texas A&M, always a difficult road game for anyone. (I dated a girl in college who lived in Austin and hated the Aggies; she called their pre-game student activities "Hitler Youth Rallies.") Then its back to Columbia for the annual beatdown at the hands of the Sooners, off to Lincoln for another humiliation at the hands of the most smug, insufferable, repulsive fans in any sport, then back to Texas to watch our defense get spun like a piñata by Texas Tech's indefensible spread offense. Going 2-2 in that stretch would be a miracle, and that's only if we can win two road games in Texas. 0-4 is more likely.

The back half of the schedule is favorable; K-State, Iowa State, Kansas. I think we can expect at least 7-8 wins and a modest bowl appearance, which we'll lose to an inferior opponent, just like we usually do. That's Mizzou football, folks. But I was in Columbia from 1986 through 1992 and suffered through 1-11, 2-10, 3-9 seasons. Seven or eight wins and a bowl game is great. This is like Christmas; don't complain about rankings or BCS. That's for the big boys. For us, good enough is good enough.

Don't bother to turn in your Cy Young ballot...

So, can we assume Lincecum just locked up another NL Cy Young?


I mean, it's not anything like last year, is it?


Funny, I was just about to tamp down the dirt on the Cardinals grave today.

(Thanks to TUCK! for another great baseball cartoon. Go see all his toons at http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/authors/tuck/2010/)

That Terry Pendleton Moment

Some of you may have noticed that I've not written about the Cardinals-Reds series that concluded yesterday. I wanted to wait until the whole thing was over and take it all in. It's too easy to look at just one game and read more significance into it than is warranted, and that's true of this series as well. After a dispiriting extra-inning loss in Florida and the Cardinals dismal road record of late, I wasn't optimistic about our chances. Before the series started, I was hoping for that Terry Pendleton moment.

Back in 1987, the Cardinals spent much of the season in front of the old NL East (there were only two divisions then), but the hated NY Mets (Pond Scum) were close on our heels, and we were going in different directions. The Cardinals were struggling and inconsistent, while the Mets (Pond Scum) were ripping off winning streaks and closing the gap day by day. The Cardinals traveled to Shea Stadium (garbage landfill) for a pivotal three-game series.

Essentially, if the Mets (Pond Scum) won the series, they most likely would have taken the division. The Cardinals were down or tied late in the game (I don't remember if it was the first or second game of the series) when third baseman Terry Pendleton came to the plate and hit a home run right into that stupid top hat out in center field. The Cardinals won the game, pulled away from the Mets (Pond Scum) and eventually won the NL pennant in 1987.

Not only did this series provide us with a Terry Pendleton moment, it gave us no less than three: 1) Skip Shumaker's grand slam in game one; 2) Yadier Molina's line in the sand to boneheaded loudmouth Brandon Phillips in game two; 3) Colby Rasmus's grand slam in game three. Three unlikely and pivotal actions that could, when we look back on the season, mark the turning point when the Cardinals separated themselves from the Reds.

It's easy to put the blame on Phillips for instigating this uprising, but one thing is certain: the Cardinals have been inconsistent to the point of baffling, especially in key games and big moments. We knew that the Cardinals had the talent to rise to the occasion, but they had already failed in moments like these previously this season. So what was the difference?

Here's what I think: Tony LaRussa hates Dusty Baker, and Dusty hates Tony. I don't think Phillips said what he said out of turn. I even think Baker approved of him calling the Cardinals "little bitches." Tony's an animal lover, so this was a shot directly at the Cards manager, as well as questioning the manhood of the Cardinals players. Have we seen three games in a row where almost every player (except Brendan Ryan, who's a putz) was so intense and focused? Does anyone else fear meeting Chris Carpenter in a dark alley (other than Brendan Ryan, who's a putz)? Is anyone else reminded of a mafia don when LaRussa gives off that dark scowl he does so well? Why on earth would the Reds have gone down this particular dark alley?

Here's why: When you haven't done anything before, you talk. When you're champions, you don't talk, you play. The Reds did all the talking, but the Cardinals hit, pitched, fielded and fought harder. This whole series revealed the character of each team. The sprint to the finish will reveal whether this series truly was this year's Terry Pendleton moment.